Pushed to discontinue the $11 billion Nord Strem 2 pipeline running from Ust-Luga, Russia to Lubmin,Germany under the Baltic Sea, 78-year-old President Joe Biden should steer clear of this minefield, potentially setting up a confrontation with 68-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin. U.S. and European Union officials are treading on thin ice, already sanctioning the Kremlin for treatment of 44-year-old Russian dissident Alexi Navalny. Already seeing flair-up in Southeastern Ukraine, any more sanctions or attempts by the U.S. or EU to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could be met with grave consequences. Started by 66-year-old German Chancellor Angela Merkel Nov. 8, 2011, Nord Stream 2 would be the world’s largest natural gas pipeline in the word, running about 1,222 km or 759 miles. Nord Stream 2 started under the Obama administration, without objections from the U.S. State Department.
Former President Donald Trump, 74, urged Merkel in the strongest possible terms to abandon the project, asking Merkel to work with the U.S. to help supply Germany liquefied natural gas. Trump warned about the EU’s growing dependence on Russia, where Moscow already supplies 40% of the natural gas and 30% of petroleum. Nothing would stop Merkel who said recently, while considering sanctions for poisoning Navalny with a banned Soviet-era Novichok nerve agent, that the Nord Stream 2 was off-limits, where Germany planned to complete the project. Interfering now in Nord Stream 2’s completion would be an act of war to the Kremlin, whose partnership with Germany has been going on for 10 years. Biden had his shot with Obama to persuade Merkel not to move ahead with pipeline in 2011, but did nothing, letting Putin consummate the contract with Germany.
Disrupting the pipeline 94% complete would be taken as an act of war by the Russian Federation. Merkel obviously felt that laying down pipe underneath the Baltic Sea was of mutual benefit for Germany and Russia. Whether the U.S. likes it or not, Russian has been a reliable supplier of cheap energy for the last 50 years. Days of arguing, as Trump did, that the Nord Stream 2 was a “bad deal” for the EU, making it too dependent on Russian energy has long since past. When you think of the mutually beneficial relationship between the EU and Russia, the Nord Stream 2 is the great peacekeeper because it keeps Russia’s hegemony in check on the European continent. Whatever additional clout Putin gets from the pipeline should be of no consequence to the U.S., where the deal was struck long ago with Merkel and Putin during the Obama administration without objections.
With tensions from Navalny ratcheted up to a frenzy, the last thing the U.S. or EU should do is try to sabotage the project. “The reason it is so geopolitically contentions is not necessarily about the pipeline or the molecules themselves. It has everything to do with timing and what it says about Europe’s relationship with Russia. Germany’s relationship with Russia and trans-Atlantic relations,” said Kristine Berzina, senior fellow with the Alliance for Securing Democracy group. With only 150 km of pipe left at 94% complete, it’s inconceivable that Germany would cancel the project, having spent about $11 billion. “It seems that way, albeit give the threat from sanctions on insurance contracts, I wonder whether any actual gas will be able to flow [through] the pipeline,” said Timothy Ash, market strategist a Bluebay Asset Management. Ash wonders if Germany elects a leader this fall to stop the project.
Whatever that changeover takes place in German election Sept. 26, there’s no stomach in Germany to throw a monkey wrench in the project. Over 94% complete, it serves no one to sabotage the project this late in the game. “We could well be done with the pipeline by September and, if the pipeline’s done, the gas will flow and I think it will be especially difficult to cut off the gas once you actually finish the pipeline . . “ said Berzina, not seeing anyway to stop the project. “Its also the sense from the U.S. that Europe does not meet its security commitments. It asks the U.S. for security guarantees, but at the first opportunity sells out to Russia,” Ash said, not sure that there’s any way now to stop the pipeline’s completion. Instead of finding ways to sabotage the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the U.S. should pick its battle somewhere else. Antagonizing Putin only hurts U.S. national security.
Days of sabotaging the Nord Stream 2 pipeline have long passed. Whatever targeted sanctions Biden applied to the Kremlin, Merkel made it clear she would proceed to complete the pipeline. James Waddell, senior global gas analyst with Energy Aspects, thinks U.S. sanctions could stall the project. Waddell thinks that if German companies pull the plug on the project, it would be hard to get the Nord 2 certified for safety. “This project has all be built to those standards of that certification company and it’s maybe difficult to find another internationally recognized certification company to step in and certify this project as ready,” Waddell speculated, on different ways the project could be stalled. But with Merkel’s commitment to finish the project before Germany’s election, the project will get completed with all the necessary certification needed for immediate operation.
