White House officials looked skeptically at a recent proposal by 59-year-old , U.S.-educated Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif for more nuclear inspections in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions. When former President Barack Obama signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] with Iran July 15, 2015, it was supposed to limit Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, delaying Iran’s manufacture of weapons grade material. Yet the final agreement which handed Iran $1.8 billion in cash and $150 billion in sanctions relief did not require intrusive inspections by the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] of Iran’s sensitive military sites. Zarif’s latest proposal wasn’t taken too seriously by the White House because Zarif gave no details of where the IAEA could go to perform more nuclear inspections. Iran claims it would give IAEA inspectors more access to nuclear sites.
Calling the new inspections Additional Protocol, Zarif says his government would agree to give the IAEA “more tools” to verify that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was peaceful. Zarif hasn’t specified what tools, but, more importantly, what additional nuclear sites would be accessible to U.N. inspectors. Telling reporters today at the U.N. that Iran could ratify the Additional Protocol for inspection looks like at least some signs that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni is willing now to renegotiate the July 15, 2015 Iranian Nuke Deal. Khamenei said May 30 that he would not renegotiate the JCPOA under any circumstances. Now he’s floating a trial balloon to see how it goes over with the White House. “If Trump wants more for more, we can ratify the Additional Protocol and he can lift the sanctions he set,” Zarif said, quoted in the Guardian newspaper.
Tehran under provisions of the JCPOA must ratify the deal eight years after signing in JCPOA, about the same time the U.S. can seek permanent termination of its sanctions. Not buying Zarif’s proposal, 73-year-old President Donald Trump viewed the plan skeptically. “Their whole game is to try to get any sanctions relief they can while maintaining the ability to get a nuclear weapon in the future,” said an unnamed White House official. Under terms of the so-called Additional Protocol, Iran would continue to enrich uranium without IAEA inspectors determining the level of fissile material. Trump cancelled the Iranian Nuke Deal May 8, 2018 to protest (a) its unverified uranium enrichment and (b) Iran’s support for its proxy war, supplying arms-and-cash Yemen’s Houthi rebels to battle Saudi Arabia. Getting sanctions relief would add to Iran’s mischief in the Mideast and North Africa.
Whether or not the White House sees Zarif’s offer as sincere, Iran made an overture to break the stalemate, with Trump’s sanctions leaving the Iranian economy in shambles. Iran wants a face-saving way out, despite complaining to the European Union that they should defy Trump’s sanctions and abide by the 2015 JCPOA. EU and Britain has practically bent over backwards to placate Iran, when they know Iran’s malign activities in the Mideast and North Africa. Trump decided there will be “maximum pressure” on Iran until they cease-and-desist in their proxy war against Saudi Arabia. “If Iran wants to make a serious gesture, it should start by ending uranium enrichment immediately and having an actual decision maker attempt to negotiate a deal that includes a permanent end to Iran’s malign nuclear ambitions, including its development of nuclear capable missiles,” said the White House official.
Questioning Iran’s sincerity, the White House must look deeper than Zarif’s proposal, realizing that the Ayatollah said no new negotiation but Zarif offers to talk. “If the foreign minister has suggested that the Majlis [the Iranian parliament] would ratify the additional protocol now, that is a serious step,” said Wend Sherman, former Obama administration official who worked on the JCPOA. Trump look to put the squeeze on Iran until they’re asking the White House to renegotiate the Iranian Nuke Deal. “The administration ought to use this as an opportunity to talk seriously internally ab out what it wants and to test the Iranian position, but I doubt that they will,” said Richard Nephew, former Obama official at Columbia University. Trump seems content to outlast the Ayatollah until he gets serious about coming back to the table. Zarif opened the door for Trump to respond.
Trump wants to talk to Iran but only if the Ayatollah is serious about stopping its proxy war against Saudi Arabia, not just curtailing its uranium enrichment program. Trump wants Iran to stop sending missiles to Hamas militants in Gaza and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon to fight Israel. Zarif’s overture clearly reflects Trump maximum pressure campaign that has left the Iranian economy reeling. With its GDP shrinking and its currency one-fourth the value, Iran can’t afford to wait too much longer to go to the table with Trump. Iran faces some tough choices: Either stop its malign activities or continue with punitive economic sanctions preventing Iran’s economy from growing at a healthy pace. Gone are the days when Iran called the shots in the Persian Gulf, threatening international shipping. With the U.S., U.K. and EU patrolling the Persian Gulf, Iran is running out of options.
