Staging what looks like a pro-democracy coup in Venezuela, 35-year-old opposition leader and self-declared president Juan Guaido hoped Venezuela’s 56-year-old socialist dictator Nicolas Maduro would surrender power. Maduro flexed his military muscle, running over street protesters in Caracas, hitting demonstrators with tear gas and spraying them with water cannons. Protesters hurled rocks and Molotov cocktails at Maduro’s military in a feeble attempt to assert power. Guaido, who was formerly head of Venezuela’s National Assembly, declared himself interim president Jan. 23, citing a provision in the Venezuelan constitution. “The armed forces have taken the right decision,” Guaido said, referring to a small number of military abandoning Maduro. “With the support of the Venezuelan people and the backing of our constitution, they’re on the right side of history.”
Staging nationwide protests, Guaido hoped to convince the Venezuelan military to jump ship, something that’s happened in only small numbers. There’s no indication that the vast majority of military are following Guaido, or, for that matter, taking the opposition leader seriously. “The moment is now,” Guaido said, staging more an international publicity stunt, encouraging relatively small numbers of street protesters to hurl rocks and Molotov cocktails at the military and police. Calling it the “final phase,” Guaido hopes to convince enough people, especially the U.S., that his pro-democracy movement is real. By all accounts, Maduro remains firmly entrenched in power, commanding the Venezuelan military with full support from Cuba and Russia. Guaido hopes to convince enough governments that a popular pro-democracy movement has finally taken hold..
U.S. officials, including 72-year-old President Donald Trump, firmly back Guaido’s pro-democracy movement but have stopped short of sending U.S. troops. Russian President Vladimir Putin has provided Maduro with Russian advisers to stop what the Kremlin sees as a CIA-backed coup. “To Juan Guaido, the National Assembly and all the freedom-loving people of Venezuela who are taking to the streets today in #operacionlibertad—Estamos con ustedes!. We are with you! America will stand with you until freedom & democracy are restored. Vayan con dios,” said Vice President Mike Pence. Pence stopped well-short of giving Guaido what he’s been asking for nearly six months: U.S. military help. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.S. fully backs the ”Venezuelan people in their quest for freedom and democracy,” again, stopping short of sending U.S. troops.
Saying “Democracy cannot be defeated,” Pompeo shared his support to Guaido but offered nothing concrete other that turning up the economic screws on Maduro. Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino rejected a “subversive movement,” primarily backed by the United States. Violent protesters, Padrino said, would not sew “panic and terror” in the Venezuelan people, pledging to root out any military supporting Guaido’s U.S.-backed coup. “A mediocre coup d’etat attempt has failed,” said Padrino, dismissing the significance of anti-Maduro protests. Socialist Party boss Diosdado Cabello said most Caracas was calm. “We’re going to Miraflores Palace to defend the revolution, to defend Nicolas and to defend the legacy of Hugo Chavez,” Cabello said in a call to state TV. U.S. officials hoped that Guaido’s nationwide street protests would drive Maduro from power.
Guaido continues to talk as if his street protests had tipped the scales toward a pro-Democracy revolution. “The armed forces have taken the right decision,” Guaido said. “With the support of the Venezuelan people and the backing of our constitution, they are on the right side of history,” Guaido said, continuing to blow smoke. Only a small fraction of the Venezuelan military have defected with the vast majority supporting Maduro and the socialist revolution. National Security Adviser John Bolton sounded an optimistic note, hoping that Guaido would prevail. “Venezuelans have made clear that the current path toward democracy is irreversible,” Bolton said on Twitter. Bolivian President Evo Moarales that backs a democratic “process” in Venezuela, opposes any coup attempt. While there’s sympathy for Guaido, few countries, including Brazil and Spain, back Guaido’s coup attempt.
Cuba, Russia and China stand firmly with Maduro’s socialist government, opposed by any foreign interference, especially the United States. Cuba’s Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez called on the U.S. to “halt aggression against the peace,” urging the U.S. stop backing Guaido’s attempted coup. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.) said on Twitter that, “military and security leaders must realize they are and will be held responsible for this.” So far, Guaido’s street protests are nothing more than a nationwide publicity stunt, appealing to the U.S. to get involved militarily to oust Maduro. With Cuban and Russian advisers defending Maduro in Caracas, the Trump White House has no stomach for starting a military action in Venezuela. Guaido’s street protests show that he lacks the national following to rid Caracas of Maduro. With his own life on the line, Guaido finds himself on thin ice calling for regime change in Caracas. No matter what Guaido’s appeals, Trump isn’t likely to commit troops.
