After canceling May 8 U.S. involvement in former President Barack Obama’s July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPA] AKA “Iranian Nuke Deal,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced re-imposing punitive sanctions. Under the 2015 deal Iran agreed to suspend its weapons grade uranium enrichment program in exchange for $150 billion in sanctions relief plus $1.6 billion in cash. Since the deal, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards [IRGC] al-Qauds force has armed Houthi rabels in Yemen to fight a proxy war against Saudi Arabia, set up offensive military bases in Syria and now threatens to lay waste to Tel Aviv. When Trump decided to cancel U.S. involvement in the JCPA, it was to gain more leverage with Tehran. Left unchecked for the last three years, Iran has run amok in the Middle East, sponsoring revolution and threatening U.S. allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
When Iran insisted in 2015 to involve the U.N. Security Council, namely, the P5+1, including the U.S., U.K, France, Russia, Germany and China, they hoped to force the U.S. to stay in the agreement. Only Kerry and Iran’s 56-year-old Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif negotiated the deal, with all other countries signing on. Iran claims the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency Agency [IAEA], says its in full compliance with the agreement. Yet the IAEA admits that they’ve never been granted access to Iran’s sensitive military sites, something needed for real verification.. But more than a nuclear agreement, the JCPA was supposed to bring Iran into compliance with international norms, including restraining its support for Mideast proxy wars and building its ballistic missile program, threatening U.S. allies in the region.
Trump decided to cancel U.S. involvement in the Nuke Deal to exercise Plan B, implementing new sanctions to contain Iran’s aggression in the region. ”America does not want to get involved in another war in the region. Iran also cannot afford more economic hardship . . . always there is a way to reach a compromise,” said an unnamed Iranian official, maintaining his anonymity. Once Trump backed out of the deal, Tehran has been busy convincing Russia, China and the European Union to stay in the agreement. Iran has threatened to leave the deal and restart its weapons grade uranium enrichment program. Insisting that its enrichment program was only for “peaceful purposes” doesn’t square with threats to ramp up its enrichment program. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has shown zero interest in renegotiating the JCPA or adding on any additional conditions.
Given Iran’s aggressive behavior in the Mideast, Trump determined the Nuke Deal harmed U.S. national security, tying the U.S. hands when it came to Tehran. “Americans can never be trusted. We don’t give a damn to their threats and sanctions,” said the nameless Iranian official. When Trump announced his decision to back out of the agreement May 8, he said he supported the aims of the Iranian people. Iranian officials took that to mean he supports regime change. “They [Americans] are lying. Even if Iran accepts all these demands, the will continue to demand more. Their aim is changing Iran’s regime,” showing parallels to Kim Jong-un’s North Korea, threatening to cancel his June 8 summit with Trump. Both regimes have zero respect for the will of the people, doing everything possible to assert total control over the population, regardless of popular sentiment.
Iran’s anemic economy drove Khamenei to agree to the Iranian Nuke Deal back in 2015. Pompeo’s May 21 announcement of new economic sanctions if Iran doesn’t change its behavior should come as no surprise. Iran knows that the EU does more business with Iran, especially with its energy sector, less likely to go along with new U.S. sanctions. Pompeo has warned U.S. allies that violating U.S. sanctions could result in sanctions against any company doing business with Tehran. “If Americans push Iran to the corner . . . then Iran will have no other option but to react harshly,” said Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leylaz, not specifying what Iran would do. Given Iran’s struggling economy, it’s unlikely the Mullah regime would risk more deterioration to the Iranian economy. Iran’s confrontations are usually through asymmetric warfare, supporting proxy conflicts in the region.
Iran wants to divide U.S. allies into continuing the Nuke Deal, despite the damage done to U.S. national security. Whatever petroleum products the EU buys from Iran, it’s not enough to threaten the relationship to the United States. Only Russia and China likes to pick up the business slack when the U.S. gives Moscow an opening. “Iran has done well in proxy wars, but they cannot confront Israel or the U.S. in a direct war,” said the unnamed Western diplomat. Iran rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May 17 call to have all foreign forces leave Syria. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said May 21 that he has no intention of asking Iran to leave Syria. With al-Assad and Tehran teaming up against Israeli in the Golan Heights, Trump and Pompeo believe there’s no better time to hit Tehran with more sanctions. When the sanctions bite, Iran will reluctantly return to the bargaining table.
