Threatening Israel over an April 10 F-16 strike on an Iranian predator drone base in Syria killing 14 Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s Foreign Ministry promised to retaliate. “Tel Aviv will be punished for its aggressive action,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Spokesman Bahram Ghassemi. “The occupying Zionist regime will, sooner or later, receive an appropriate response to its actions,” escalating tensions in Syria. With President Donald Trump, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron striking Syrian chemical weapons’ sites with 105 GPS-guided missiles April 14, tensions are running high, especially with Syria’s allies Russia, Iran and Lebanon-based Hezbollah. Iran’s threat to Israel ratchets up Mideast conflict, pandering to Israel’s Arab enemies, condemning President Donald Trump’s Dec, 23, 2017 recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
Commemorating its 70-year-anniversary May 14 in Jerusalem, with Trump or Vice President Mike Pence due to attend, Iran hopes to grandstand, hitting Israel with a Shahab-5 long-range ballistic missile. Since 2013, Israel has targeted Iran or Hezbollah over 100 times with air-strikes designed to degrade Hezbollah’s encroachment on the Golan Heights, territory Israel seized in the 1967 Six Day War. Iran’s threat to hit Tel Aviv or the port city of Haifa would open up a new front in the Syrian conflict. U.S. would have to decide whether or not its time to take on Tehran, if Iran strike Israeli population centers. Israel’s attacks over the last five years have been at only military sites that threaten Israeli national security. Hitting civilian sites would trigger retaliation by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, already viewing Iran as an existential threat to Israel.
As the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East morphs, it’s clear that Iran has thrown itself in with the Russian Federation, Syrian’s President Bashar al-Assad’s biggest military backer. Without Russian President Vladimir Putin, al-Assad would have fallen in 2015 to a determined Saudi proxy war to topple Damascus. Saudi Arabia’s U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has made clear The Kingdon will not stop its proxy war until al-Assad leaves Damascus. Putin joined the fight to protect al-Assad in 2015, fighting a relentless air campaign against Saudi-backed rebels. If Iran attacks Israel, it would no doubt win the praise from the Arab Gulf States, despite Saudi Arabia’s recent cooperation with Israel. Opening up a new front between Iran and Israel would complicate the Syrian landscape, maybe giving Gulf States a reason to forgive Iran’s proxy war in Yemen.
Heading into Israel’s 70th anniversary, U.S. officials must exercise greater caution if they plan to attend the festivities. “The only thing more complex that the Syrian Civil War would be the Syrian Civil War overlaid with an Israeli-Iran shooting war,” said Henry Rome, researcher at the global risk consultancy Eurasia Group Rome thinks Iran’s shooting war with Israel would give the U.S. the green light to go after Iran’s Mullah regime. Trump’s been eyeing pulling the U.S. out of former President Barack Obama’s 2015 Iranian Nuke Deal. Netanyahu believes the agreement gives Iran a clear path to a nuclear weapon. While Iran denies any military uses of its nuke program, it’s threatened many times to resume its full uranium enrichment program if Trump pulls out of the deal. If Iran attacks Israel, Trump would no doubt unilaterally pull out of the Iranian Nuke Deal.
Under Russia’s cover and Syria’s Civil War, Iran seized an opportunity to set up naval and army bases in Syria. With Syria largely in ruins, except parts of Damascus, Iran and its client militia Hezbollah has tried to set up permanent bases in Syria to one day start a war with Israel. Threatening to lay waste to Tel Aviv and Haifa, Netanyahu considers Iran Israel’s biggest threat, urging Trump to back out the Iranian Nuke Deal. “To that end, Israel will continue to target Iranian Military infrastructure in Syria and attempt to prevent the transfer of advance weapons of Hezbollah,” said Ryan Turner, a senior risk analyst at London-based PGI Group. Ryan believes that an Israeli shooting war with Iran would trigger a wider conflict, dragging the U.S. deeper into the Saudi’s seven-year-old proxy war. Iran’s more likely to grandstand of Israel’s Anniversary Day than a full scale war.
Iran and Hezbollah both promised to retaliate for Israel’s April 10 strike on Syria’s T-4 base, killing 14 Iranian soldiers. It’s not rocket science to figure out that Israel’s upcoming 70-year-anniversary would be the perfect time for Iran to strike. On the other hand, Iran’s got a lot of fish to fry keeping its own economy from sinking into oblivion, keeping its focus on defending al-Assad. “It’s intense seeming but it can be controlled by Tehran and Jerusalem and I think they would not seek open warfare,” said former Syrian Ambassador Richard Murphy. Whether or not a strike on Israel’s 70th anniversary amounts to an act of war is anyone’s guess. Iran sees nothing but positives in the Arab world hitting Israel on its big day. “It’s a game that has its dangers,” said Murphy, expecting something big to happen sometime soon. If Iran attack’s Israel, Netanyahu won’t sit idly by.
