With all the talk of war on the Korean Peninsula, China’s chief diplomat Wang Yi said today he hoped upcoming summits between North Korea, South Korean and the United States defused tensions. Trading threats for the last year, North Korea and the U.S. continued the belligerent rhetoric until South Korea invited North Korea to participate in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. Marching under one flag Feb. 9 in the opening ceremony marked a diplomatic milestone for the two Koreas, perhaps paving the way for peaceful resolution to the conflict. President Donald Trump made clear he won’t tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea, something he vowed to stop by whatever means, including using force. China, Russia and the European Union expressed reservations about Trump’s tough talk, urging North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un to end his nukes and ballistic missile program.
North Korean-U.S. tensions hit a crescendo when North Korean Foreign Minister told the U.N. General Assembly Sept. 24, 2017 that it was “inevitable” Pyongyang’s nuclear-armed Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles [ICBMs] would hit the United States. Trump warned Kim that his patience was running out, asking Defense Secretary James Mattis to draw up plans to neutralize North Koreas nukes and ballistic missile programs. “We all welcome and support the apparent improvement in the situation on the peninsula and appreciate the efforts of all parties,” Wang said. Wang knows that all the peace overtures could collapse if Kim refuses to disarm his nukes and ballistic missiles. When Kim made a surprise visit to Beijing March 27, he promised in good faith to disarm his nuclear arsenal but set some pre-conditions, including that the U.S. and South Korean discontinue war games.
Kim reassured Chinese officials that he’s serious about nuclear disarmament on the Korean Peninsula as long as all parties make steps to reassure his government that his sovereignty is guaranteed. Kim insists he developed his nukes and ballistic missile program as a deterrent to a U.S. invasion. But with the Korean War ending in an armistice, not a peace treaty, July 27, 1953, there’s been no attempt by the U.S. or South Korea to cross the 38th parallel into North Korea. Chinese President Xi Jinping joined the U.N. Security Council Aug. 27, 2017 slapping North Korea with new sanctions on petroleum imports. While Trump wanted a total oil embargo on North Korea, China and Russia went along with new petroleum import restrictions, bringing Kim to the table. If Xi’s meeting with Kim is any guide, he seems willing to put his nuke and ballistic missiles on the table.
U.N. Amb. Nikki Haley said that North Korea was “suffocating” under the current U.N. sanctions regime. After meeting with Xi, Haley believes that Kim’s looking for a face-saving way out of his nukes and ballistic missiles. “They need an out,” said Haley, hoping that Kim’s serious about disarming his nukes and ballistic missiles. “When the president ends up speaking with Kim, the conversation has to be about denuclearizing. Not some of it, all of it. We don’t want an irresponsible actor to have nuclear weapons,” said Haley, showing she’s 100% on the same page as Trump. World leaders cringed at Trump’s type of diplomacy, telling the North Korean dictator Aug. 9, 2017 that he faces “fire-and-fury” if he doesn’t disarm. Trump’s diplomacy prompted China and Russia to go along with tough new economic sanctions, eventually forcing Kim to the bargaining table to deal with his nukes and ballistic missiles.
After 25 years of failure with three American presidents, including Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, Trump’s put his foot down when it comes to North Korea’s nuclear threats against the U.S. Most nuclear experts expect Kim to have an operational nuclear-armed ICBM within a year, giving Trump a narrow window to press for disarmament. Whether admitted to or not, China and Russia have impressed on Kim the necessity to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Sept. 25, 2017 Trump would not attack North Korea because he fears nuclear retaliation. Russian President Vladimir Putin disagreed with Lavrov that Kim had the capability to hit the U.S. with and nuclear-charged ICBM. Both Russia and China got Trump’s message that he’s willing to use military force if necessary to neutralize Kim’s nukes and ballistic missiles.
As the deadline approaches for summits with North Korea, South Korea plans to send an unequivocal message to Kim that he must denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. When and if Kim meets with Trump, South Korean and U.S. officials will make enough progress toward disarmament or the meeting won’t take place. Because China and Russia want peace on the Korean Peninsula, they’ve let Kim know in no uncertain terms they expect him to disarm his nukes and ballistic missiles. Kim once believed that his nukes and ballistic missiles gave him peace of mind. He now knows that it brings North Korea only economic misery and possible war. If China and Russia agree to defend North Korea in the event of a U.S. invasion, Kim’s more likely to let go of his weapons of mass destruction. If Trump pulls off North Korea’s nuclear disarmament, he would deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.
