When 63-year-old German Chancellor Angela Merke was told an emphatic no by pro-business FDP Party leader Christian Lindner, her ruling coalition fell apart Nov. 18, unprecedented in post-WW II German history. No chancellor has been denied a ruling coalition until now. Merkel still hasn’t processed what it means, urging German President Frank-Walter Steinmeir to save the day. But Steinmeir’s no miracle worker trying to twist arms to find enough votes in the 709-menber Bundestag [lower house] and Bundesrat [upper house] to win Merkel back a governing coalition. Steinmeir hopes to corral enough votes from Social Democrat Party [DPP] boss Martin Schultz, creating an unnatural fit with Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union. Steinmeir hopes to pull a rabbit out of his hat, convincing enough party bosses that a grand coalition is better than new elections.
Steinmeir met with Lindner on Tuesday hoping to pull him back into the fold. Lindner told Merkel “Goodbye,” last Sunday, showing no interest in giving Merkel another four hears to invite more Syrian and Mideast refugees into Germany. When pro-Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] struck a Berlin Christmas market Dec. 19, 2017, Merkel’s pro-European Union immigration policies backfired. Merkel watched Great Britain’s June 23, 2016 Brexit vote to get out of the EU largely because of the EU’s pressure to take more Mideast refugees. Now Merkel expects Steinmeir to convince skeptical party bosses to give her four more years. Steinmeir meets to day with Bavaria’s 68-year-old conservative Christian Social Union [CSU] Party boss Horst Seehofer, unlikely to join Merkel’s governing coalition. Steinmeir has a better chance Thursday convincing Schultz throw her support.
Merkel’s Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel hopes to persuade Schultz to get on board, avoiding either minority government rule or new elections. Steinmeir and Gabriel hope to convince Schultz that joining Merkel’s coalition would stop Beatrix von Storch, head of the Alternative for German Party [AfD]. While Merkel’s CDU Party leans conservative, it’s nothing compared with AfD hoping to get more seats in the Bundestag and Bundesrat. Von Storch, like French National Front Party leader Marine Le Pen, commands a growing following with Merkel continuing the pro-EU immigration policies. When German authorities foiled a Syrian terror plot Oct. 23, it reminded party officials that Merkel no longer represents the needs to German citizens, pandering too much to Brussels. Reluctance by Party bosses to back Merkel speaks volumes about her EU-first attitude and policies.
Steinmeir’s best hope lies with Schultz’s Social Democratic Party, convincing Schultz that he must prevent Von Storch from gaining more ground. While Steinmeir as president holds no party affiliation, he has past sympathies with Schultz’s SPD. Von Storch and Seehofer wouldn’t be too happy if Merkel sells her soul to Schultz’s SPD Party, the former Socialist Workers Party. While Steinmeir lost his bid for chancellor in 2009, his close relationship with former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder leaves him as a consensus builder, hoping to avoid new elections. Meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last month to improve strained relations, Steinmeir shows his two stints as foreign minister gave him international experience. Steinmeir hopes his known opposition to Von Storch helps him convince Schultz that joining Merkel’s coalition is best for Germany.
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Steinmeir can only do so much to save Merkel after 12 years ruling Germany. Merkel’s decision in 2015, against considerable backlash, to admit some 1 million Syrian and Mideast refugees into Germany won her praise in the EU but not with rank-and-file Germans and most political parties. Steinmeir worked on the two Minsk Agreeements dealing with the fallout of Putin’s annexation of Crimea March 1, 2014. Merkel’s insistence that Putin get out of Crimea or withdraw troops from the Donbass region os Southeastern Ukraine led to tensions with Moscow. Merkel, above all else, is about Germany as a dutiful part of the EU, not an independent state with unique political and cultural challenges. Merkel finds herself with dwindling support for four more years. Her suggestion to hold new election in April indicates that she’s accepting her fate as a lame duck leader.
Seeking a grand coalition with Schultz’s liberal SDP shows the desperation Merkel now faces pulling off a new government. Instead of accepting the will of Germany’s political parties, Merkel still hope to cobble together enough votes from Schultz’s SDP. Lindner’s pro-business FDP shows no signs or joining Merkel’s grand coalition. Had Merkel listened to her critics—not Brussels—she wouldn’t be in today’s dilemma, groping for votes from Schultz. Steinmeir’s close ties to Schroeder and the SDP Party won’t necessarily pay off, winning Merkel the required votes. Before Steinmeir goes out on a limb, he needs to put his ear to the political voice that’s calling for new leadership. Twelve years as chancellor has left Merkel isolated with closer ties to the EU than the Bundestag or Bundesrat. If Steinmeir gets Schultz on board, Merkel still doesn’t have consensus.
