Three weeks after warning North Korea of ‘fire-and-fury” Aug. 8, dictator Kim Jong-un launched a medium range ballistic missile over Japan, eventually breaking apart in the Northern Pacific. Trump praised Kim Aug. 16 for his “wise” decision to de-escalate the North Korean crisis by refraining from launching more missiles. Kim’s decision to shoot off a missile over Japan is another provocation, this time aimed at Japan, a staunch U.S. ally. Kim warned Aug. 9 that he would send a ring of fire around the U.S. territory of Guam but promptly backed down Aug. 15, saying he would wait-and-see what happens with yearly U.S.-South Korean live exercises over the next few weeks. Trump realized today that whatever deference Kim showed to U.N. sanctions, it was all a charade. Going back to the Security Council for Kim’s latest provocation, time is running out on diplomacy.
Sending a missile over Japan, Kim signaled that he’s ready to hit any U.S. ally, ignoring the Security Council’s Aug. 5 sanctions. Trump said the latest missile launch “signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior.” Trump knows North Korea’s long history of ignoring U.N. sanctions, making enforcement all the more difficult unless the U.S. takes unilateral military action. “Threatening and destabilizing actions only increases the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world,” said Trump. “All options are on the table,” repeating the same warnings of unilateral military action once thought unthinkable. South Korean President Moon Jae-in began his term May 10, promising a new era of cooperation with the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea [DPRK].
Pushing for a new plan for rapid all-out war with North Korea, South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo reported that Moon ordered South Korean defense forces to draw up plans for a “decapitation force” that could rapidly bring about regime change in Pyongyang. Moon’s change-of-heart after Kim’s latest missile launch over Japan shows that he’s getting on the same page as Trump. Saying, “We’ll see, we’ll see,” Trump was noncommittal about any military action in North Korea. When you consider Moon ordered his generals to draw up plans for a “decapitation strike,” it’s not that farfetched that a military option remains plausible. North Korea boasts about having the world’s largest standing army but recent report suggest at least half the army are women recruits currently plagued with malnutrition. Kim boasts about his Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles [ICBMs] but there’s no proof of a nuclear warhead.
Before former President George W. Bush launched Operation Iraqi Freedom March 20, 2003, Iraqi dictator Saddam Huseein boasted about his vast arsenal of nuclear and biologic weapons. Kim, too, likes to blow smoke, especially about the size of his army and military sophistication. Trump’s in no rush to attack Pyongyang because there’s zero real evidence that Kim has an operational nuke-tipped ICBM. Talking of mass casualties on the Korean Peninsula assumes that Kim could recover from a U.S. strike that takes out his mobile, land and ship-based ballistic missile sites. Before he was let go Aug. 18, former chief strategist Stephen Bannon dismissed Trump’s “fire-and-fury” remarks as a bluff. With Defense Secretary Gen. James “Mad Dog” Mattis threatening regime change and destruction of the North Korean people Aug. 9, Bannon sounds out-of-the-loop.
Heading back to the Security Council, there’s little the U.S. can do to enforce economic sanctions but, more importantly, stop Kim’s nuke and ballistic missile programs. Whether or not there’s more pressure from China or Russia, without Kim giving up his nukes and ballistic missiles, the U.S. must still act unilaterally to prevent Kim from getting a nuke-ready ballistic missile. Speaking with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, both called North Korea “a grave and growing direct threat. “Japan and the U.S. positions are totally one,” said Abe, affirming Trump’s strong support to defending Japan. When air-raid sirens went off in Hokkaido Island with the North Korean missile flying overhead, Japanese authorities understood the clear-and-present danger posed by Kim Jong-un. Speaking in Abu Dhabi today, Russian Amb. Sergei Lavrov said North Korean must respect U.N. sanctions.
Trump’s playing his cards close the vest when it comes to what options are on the table in North Korea. U.S. officials want to wait until joint U.S.-South Korean war games end Sept. 1 before weighing options. Once the war games conclude, Trump will have a better sense of how the situation will play out. It’s still possible that China and Russia will heap more pressure on Kim to stop provocations and follow the U.N. sanctions. “I respect that fact very much. Respect that fact. And maybe, probably not, but maybe something positive can some about,” said Trump referring to Kim’s three-week hiatus on firing missiles. Whether new U.N. sanctions take hold or not, Trump promised he wouldn’t let Kim get a nuclear-ready ICBM. Whether diplomacy can stop that is anyone’s guess. Keeping the military option on the table, Trump hopes Kim will eventually disarm.
