Repeating the same mistake when he joined former GOP nominee Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney as VP in 2012, 46-year-old House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) raised the prospect again of cutting Medicare and Social Security. Romney learned quickly that Ryan’s zealotry for cutting popular entitlements gets him into trouble. Once again, Ryan’s talking up again Medicare cuts, know 57,000 Americans depend on the coverage. Whatever happens in the House, Ryan knows it’s all meaningless unless he can summons 60 votes in the U.S. Senate to make anything law. Losing two seats in the Senate Nov. 8, Republicans are in no mood to surrender more seats two years from now when Mid-term elections take place. Threatening to cut Medicare or Social Security is the best way for the Senate to hand the reins to Democrats. Ryan wants to turn Medicare into a private voucher program.
When it comes to Medicare and Social Security, even hardcore Republicans don’t want the popular entitlements changed. “We are not inclined to lead with our chin,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tx.). “And right now, we’ve go a lot on our plate,” referring to President-elect Donald Trump’s ambitious agenda of massive tax cuts, border security, including building the infamous border wall. With the Senate split 51 [R] to 48 [D], Trump’s not going to get his agenda across without compromise. Savvy members of the Senate, led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), know that 60 votes are required for cloture to pass legislation. With Obamacare on the chopping block, Ryan insists there would be cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, the federal insurance programs for seniors and the poor. Ryan thinks the 2010 Affordable Care Act expanded Medicare and Medicaid coverage.
Whether Ryan intended it or not, openly talking about cutting Medicare or Social Security raises red flags for Democrats. Instead of telegraphing his thoughts, Ryan needs to play his cards close to the vest, waiting for the right time to raise issues. “Obamacare rewrote Medicare, rewrote Medicaid, so if you’re going to repeal and replace Obamacare, you have to address those issues as well,” Ryan told Fox News. Changing eligibility requirements for senior HMO Medicare plans, Obamacare did little to change Medicare. As far as Medicaid, it expanded the ranks of the poor that qualified for government health insurance. Picking Obamacare and Medicare critic Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.) for Health and Human Services Secretary also raised red flags to Democrats. Instead of hitting the panic button, Democrats should realize they have all the votes needed to defeat any proposed changes.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Ryan’s been pushing to privatize Medicare and Social Security since joining Romney’s ticket in 2012. “Speaker Ryan has pushed to privatize Medicare for years and the President-elect has nominated a champion [Price] of that effort,” said Schumer, questioning whether the GOP really wants to pick that battle. “I envision 2017 as taking steps, small, in preparing for larger steps to save Medicare for the long-term,” said House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Tx.). Whether Brady knows it or not, Trump spoke loudly on the campaign trail that he wanted no cuts to Medicare or Social Security. He promised his economic reforms would expand U.S. Gross Domestic Product enough to pay for Medicare and Social Security without cuts. House Republicans shouldn’t get too euphoric about Medicare and Social Security.
When you consider 57,000 seniors and disabled depend on Medicare, any talk of cuts becomes political suicide, especially for Republicans. Most the seniors in Congress have Medicare as their primary insurance. Had former Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Ct.) not blocked “Medicare-for-all” in 2009, Obamacare would have never come into law. What caused Obamacare’s problems were reliance on private health insurance markets. Without some Congressional-mandated price controls, Obamacare was bound to fail. With premium increases averaging 25%, it was only a matter of time before the program cratered. Medicare-for-all would have bypassed private insurance markets, allowing the tight-fisted Medicare program to schedule doctors’ fees and maintain consistent premium prices. Trump’s plan to repeal-and-replace Obamacare with more competitive interstate insurance pricing could backfire.
GOP members in the Senate aren’t interested in Ryan’s Medicare and Social Security wars. GOP knows that if they want to add to seats in two years, they’d better not mess with the nation’s most popular entitlements. “Paul Ryan, who I admire tremendously, he’s a big thinker. He’s a big idea guy. I’m actually trying to figure out, ‘How do we get it passed?’” said Conyn, referring to Ryan’s attempts at Medicare or Medicaid reform. Ryan’s politically savvy to know that talk of cutting Medicare or Social Security opens up a can of worms for Trump, working hard to advance his ambitious political agenda. “I think it would depend entirely on how committed the administration was to pushing some sort of reforms,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), mirroring Senate GOP sentiment. Messing with Medicare and Social Security usually turns out badly for Republicans.
