Detonating a suicide vest in the heart of Istanbul’s busy Sultanhmet shopping district, an unidentified terrorist struck one of the world’s busiest tourist spots. Generating 12% of Turkey’s $789 billion Gross Domestic Product, Turkey can ill-afford to hurt tourism-based economy. Face with an unmanageable refugee crisis from the ongoing war in Syria, host to more that 3 million immigrants fleeing from war-torn areas in neighboring Syria. Accused by Russian President Vladimir Putin of profiting from illicit oil sales from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS], 62-year-old Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogans rejects the charges but hasn’t entirely denied them. Getting over 3 billion euros from the European Union to manage Syrian refugees, Turkey expect to get another 3 billion euros soon. Erdogan backs the Saudi proxy war trying to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Erdogan claims he wants and end to the five-year-old Syrian war but continues to back Riyadh’s aim of toppling al-Assad’s Shiite government. More closely tied to Saudi’s Wahhabi Sunni community, Turkey’s Salafist sect opposes al-Assad’s Shiite rule, pitting Turkey against Syria and Iran. Since shooting down a Russian SU-24 fighter jet Nov. 25, 2015, Erdogan walks a razor’s edge with Russia, dangerously close to dragging NATO into a wider conflict. Erdogan and his Premier Minsiter Ahmet Davutoglu justified the shoot-down as Turkey defending its territory. Putin put Ergogan on notice that one more mishap, for whatever reason, would result in a devastating Russian response. Russian’s defense of al-Assad has been a key element in staving off regime change in Damascus. Since Syrian peace talks reopened in Geneva March 14, the Saudis have shown no interest in stopping the war.
Turkey plays a dangerous game of chicken with its archenemy, the Syrian Kurds AKA the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK], with whom Turkey has waged a 20-year battle, often trading cross-border attacks. Shelling PKK and Kurdish Protection Unints [YPG] in Saudi rebel-held territories, Erdogan defends his Saudi brothers but invites terrorism on Turkish soil. Faced with a March 13 suicide bombing in Ankara killing 37 and wounding scores more, Erdogan stepped up his bombing of PKK and YPG Peshmerga fighters. Considered a key U.S. ally battling ISIS and al-Qaeda’s al-Nusra front in Syria, Turkey’s cross-borders artillery barrages at PKK and YPG stoke the recent spate of suicide bombings. Meeting with his Security Council today, Davutoglu looks to blame the Kurds for today’s suicide blast. Turkish authorities look to step up attacks on the Kurds.
White House officials find themselves saying one thing privately and another publicly when it comes to the Turks and the Kurds. With Turkey accepting 2.7 million Syrian refugees, it’s difficult for the U.S. to condemn Turkey’s foreign policy, especially its ongoing war against the Kurds. Meeting in Geneva on the Syrian peace talks, U.N. Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura also walks a tightrope wanting to invite Kurdish participation but risking alienating Turkey. Turkey has little sympathy for the Kurds, regardless of their role in battling ISIS. As long Ankara keeps bombing Kurdish targets on the Syrian-Turkish border, Erdogan can expect retaliation. Calling the Istanbul blast and “outrage,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg condemned the attack. “Yet another terrorist outrage targeting innocent civilians and our ally Turkey,” said Stoltenberg.
Turkey’s best hope of stopping terrorism involves finding a fix in Geneva for the five-year-old Syrian War. As long as Damascus rubber-stamps Saudi’s foreign policy, more terror attacks will occur. De Mistura hasn’t shown the strength to deal with Saudi Arabia, 100% committed to toppling al-Assad, regardless of the fallout on the Mideast and Europe. With Syrian refugees streaming across the Turkish border and making their way to Europe, the EU’s economy has been stuck in neutral. If U.S., EU and Russian foreign ministers really wanted to end the war, they’d let al-Assad stay in Damscus. Whatever al-Assad’s had to do to save Syria, including battling various Saudi-and-U.S.-backed militant group, it’s unrealistic to blame al-Assad for killing 270,000 and displacing millions more to other lands. De Mistura has his work cut out trying to find a fix for the Syrian conflict.
Closing its embassy in the historic Sultanhmet district of Istanbul, Germany expect more attacks in the future. Twelve German tourists were killed Jan 12 with a suicide blast, whether attributed to ISIS or PKK. Declaring an autonomous federal region in northern Syria March 17, the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party [PYD], antagonized Ankara, completely rejecting any such action. Neither Syrian nor Iraqi Kurds get any support from their host governments, despite the long history of living in semi-autonomous regions. Erdogan makes no exceptions for Kurdish groups, lumping them all with his archenemy, the PKK. Ankara puts the U.S. in a difficult spot attacking the needed boots-on-the-ground to battle ISIS. When Erdogan shells the Kurds, it works at cross-purposes, attacks a key U.S. ally, promotes more terrorism and does nothing to end the Syrian war.
