Worries from public health officials about a “second wave” of novel coronavirus AKA SARS CoV-2 or Covid-19 aren’t panning out, as more businesses open up creating increased cases in some areas. With thousands of demonstrators taking to the streets to protest the May 25 chokehold death of George Floyd, it doesn’t appear that added exposure or lack of social distancing has spiked coronavirus cases. Reopening businesses where previously “sheltered in place” citizens now find themselves re-circulating in normal activities are bound to create more infections. Increased infections due to re-opening businesses does not constitute a “second wave” of virus, only more cases due to new exposure. Twenty-one states have seen an increase in Covid-19 cases since businesses started opening up. If cases ratchet up too much, states like New York could re-impose business closures.
Unlike China where the totalitarian government can shut down things overnight, it’s more difficult to do that in the United States. While there’s plenty of blame to go around for U.S. coronavirus cases, it’s difficult for public health officials to shut down the U.S. economy to stop the spread of the virus. When 74-year-old President Donald Trump banned travel from China Jan. 31, he drew criticism from the World Health Organization [WHO] and certain U.S. politicians like 77-year-od former Vice President and Democrat nominee Joe Biden. Public health officials know it’s difficult to manage a global infectious disease crisis without shutting everything down. “First and foremost, most of the world right now is still very in the first wave of this pandemic,” said Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s Emergency Program June 13. Ryan doesn’t see more cases due to re-opening as a “second wave.”
Public health officials, even 80-year-old Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institutes of Health Infectious Disease and Allergy, concede that it’s impractical for the U.S. economy to be shut down again. Mitigation efforts, requiring U.S. citizens in public place to use masks, social distancing and apply good hygiene, when possible is the only way forward. Continuing to test infected citizens and trace contacts are prudent strategies to control the virus spread. Days of “shelter in place” and shutting down the economy are over because, at this stage of virus, they don’t work anymore. “In other words, the disease has not reached a very low level, maintained a low level, and then comes back some time later in the years,” Ryan said, dismissing the idea that the U.S. is dealing with a second wave. Ryan sees new cases occurring because lockdown orders have been lifted
Going forward, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] needs to deal with the practical reality that the U.S. economy can’t be shut down again. Whether or not the shutdown saved lives is anyone’s guess. Infectious disease experts agree that heard immunity must eventually help to eliminate the virus from human-to-human transmission. When vaccines become widely available, that too will help to prevent more coronavirus infections in the future. Until then, using masks, social distancing, hygiene and warning vulnerable groups like seniors to show caution should help prevent more infections. “It’s not surprising at all that any country coming out of this so-called lockdown can have clusters of disease, reemergence of disease,” Ryan said. “That’s not necessarily a second wave.” U.S. infectious disease experts have unnecessarily panicked the pubic into staying at home.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product [GDP], built off two-thirds consumers spending, has continued to shrink in 2020. Continuing to whip the public into more panic continues to hurt the U.S. economy, keeping consumers at home, delaying any chance of recovery. New York’s 62-year-old Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who’s been dealing with the nation’s worst coronavirus outbreak, said there are “much more micro processes” the government can do to help control the spread of the virus. Cuomo talked in New York about locating new outbreaks, then performing more testing and contact tracing to stop the virus from spreading. Ryan thinks the more data public health officials have, the better able determine the whereabouts of outbreaks, making it easier to control future spread. Public health officials are starting to pivot away from lockdowns and “shelter in place” to more testing and contact tracing.
As the economy reopens, public health officials expect more cases of coronavirus in certain areas as more people go to public venues. Public health officials know they can’t expect the government to shut down businesses again, especially at this stage of the virus outbreak. “That really comes down to the sophistication of your public-health surveillance, your ability to test, track and trace your knowledge of the virus as it’s spreading through communities, and your ability to apply measures in a way that’s not a blanket measure,” Ryan said. WHO and other public health agencies like the CDC understand it’s not practical to keep the economy shut down, creating other types of collateral damage to society, including more bankruptcies, foreclosures, unemployment, homelessness, suicides, alcohol and drug abuse and violence. Public health is joined at the hip with the overall economy.
