Dealt a string of setbacks by the British Parliament, 55-year-old Prime Minister Boris Johnson looks to complete this Brexit deal Monday, Oct. 21, 10 days before the deadline with the European Union [EU]. Johnson tried but failed to push through a no-deal Brexit, only to watch his plan foiled in the House of Commons. Johnson thought he could get a prorogation deal from Queen Elizabeth Aug. 30, keeping Parliament out his plans for a no-deal Brexit. Parliament returned to session after Britain’s high court ruled Johnson’s attempt to keep parliament recessed was illegal. Parliament returned Sept. 24, passing a bill making a no-deal Brexit illegal. Johnson was forced, like his predecessor former Prime Minister Theresa May, to get an orderly deal from the EU. British Foreign Secretary Domiique Raab said today that he believed Johnson had enough votes in Parliament to pass his Brexit deal.
Johnson wants to complete Brexit by Oct. 31, the agreed upon deadline with the EU to complete its severance from the U.K. It’s been over three years when a referendum to leave the EU passed 52% to 48% June 23, 2016. May couldn’t get an acceptable deal with Parliament, forcing her to resign May 24. Raab confirmed that the EU was not inclined to grant the U.K. another extension, believing they’ve given the best Brexit deal possible. Yet Parliament forced Johnson Oct. 19 to ask the EU for another extension, something Brussels and Downing Street oppose. Despite the move to seek another extension, Raab thinks Johnson has enough votes in Parliament to compete Brexit by Oct. 31. “He’s got that deal. We seem to have the number in the House of Commons. Why hasn’t Parliament pushed this through? That is what we are going to do next week,” Raab told the BBC.
Echoing Raab’s belief about a Brexit deal, Conservative Minister and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Grove thinks Johnson now has the votes in Parliament, despite sending a letter to the EU requesting another delay. Johnson reluctantly submitted the letter, knowing that he and EU want no more delays. Only Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn wants a new referendum vote, reversing any attempt to complete Brexit. “We are going to leave by Oct. 31, we have the means and the ability to do so,” Grove told Sky News today. Parliament has been most concerned about the so-called “backstop,” that would prevent the Northern Ireland border from hardening, continuing the free market between the U.K. and Irish Republic. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a key member of the EU Brexit negotiations, is committed to keeping the Northern Ireland border open.
With the main sticking point to a Brexit deal all but resolved, Grove believes it’s possible to complete the deal by Oct. 31. “That letter was sent because Parliament required it to be sent . . . but Parliament can’t change the prime minister’s mind, Parliament can’t change the government’s policy or determination,” Grove said. Labour still wants a new referendum on the new deal. “Whatever deal gets through, it should be subject to a referendum,” said Keir Starmer, Labour Party spokesman. British legislator Oliver Letwin, whose recent amendment required Johnson to seek a delay, said he believed there were enough votes in the House of Commons to complete Brexit by Oct. 31. “I am absolutely behind the government now as long as they continue with this bill, continue with the deal, I will support it, I will vote for it,” Letwin told BBC. Letwin strongly opposed a no-deal Brexit.
Now that Johnson has a tangible deal, Letwin and other members of Parliament opposed to a “no-deal” Brexit now lean toward supporting Johnson’s Brexit deal. Letwin was kicked out the Tory Party after insisting that Johnson get a Brexit deal before getting out of the EU. “I think we probably will,” Letwin said about getting enough votes in Parliament to pass Brexit this week. Starmer said he would put more amendments on the deal, preventing the so-called “trap-door,” preventing the U.K. from a no-deal Brexit during the transition period in Dec. 2020. Getting closer to a deal, Corbyn’s Labour Party would like to impose a new Brexit referendum but doesn’t have the votes in Parliament to oppose the current deal. Brussels also doesn’t want further deal because they have nothing more to offer, including on the pivotal Northern Ireland border, something they say has been worked out.
EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier said he was meeting with EU ambassadors on completing the Brexit deal. Barnier confirmed that EU Council President Donald Tusk would be meeting with EU leaders soon on the latest request for a Brexit extension. Neither Johnson nor the EU wants to kick the Brexit deal down the road any longer. With the Northern Ireland border issues mostly resolved, there’s no reason to delay the vote any further. Corbyn would like a new referendum but that ship has sailed, pushing Johnson and the House of Commons to find common ground to pass a deal by Oct. 31. EU officials have spent too much time-and-money on working out a suitable Brexit deal. Letting Northern Ireland stay in the Custom’s Union allows the border to remain open for the indefinite future. Barnier expects “a very short and normal meetings,” with the EU to complete the deal.
