Opening discussions today on whom to pick for the next prime minister, 80-year-old Israeli President Reuven Rivilin will hear all the arguments from Israel’s leading political parties. When 69-year-old Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to get a majority in his conservative Likud Party Sept. 17 with 31 seats, his 60-year-old challenger Gen. Benny Gantz declared himself the next prime minister after his Blue and White Party got 33 seats in the Israeli parliament or Knesset. Only one problem for Gantz, neither he nor Netanyahu can deliver a governing coalition of 61-seats without 61-year-old former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu Party’s eight seats deciding the next prime minister. In a bid to stop Netanyahu, Israel’s Arab Joint List Party with 13 seats endorsed Gantz today, in what would looks like good news for the former Israeli general.
Gartz argues that because his Blue and White Party won two seats more than Likud, he should be the next prime minister. But Gantz forgets it’s not about how many seats his Blue and White Party won, it’s about putting together a 61-vote governing majority. Watching the Arab Joint List Party throw its backing to Gantz actually presents problems for the former general who must now convince Lieberman to back him as prime minister. Say what you will about Lieberman, he not about to join a governing coalition with the Arab Joint List Party. Rivlin knows that the number of seats in a political party does not determine who becomes the next prime minister. Unless Gantz gets Lieberman to buy in to joining forces with the Arab Joint List Party, Gantz cannot become prime minister. Rivlin plans to meet with Lieberman in the next 24 hours to decide to whom his eight seats will go.
Lieberman, a Moldovan from the former Soviet Union, demands that all right wing religious parties must give up their exemption to avoid military service. Lieberman believes that all Israelis, regardless of religious background, must serve in the Israeli Defense Forces. Netanyahu finds himself caught between as rock-and-a-hard-place placating religious parties to join his coalition, while, simultaneously, pushing that all religious parties serve in the Israeli military. Rivlin asked both Netanyahu and Gantz to share power in a unity government, something neither candidate wants to do yet. “The consultations will include new offers that the public has yet to hear,” Rivilin said, not tipping his hand about the best prospect for prime minister. Rivlin admitted he hasn’t seen the Arab Joint List Party endorse a candidate since they backed Ytizak Rabin in 1992, eventually negotiating the Oslo Accords.
Arab Joint List Party wants Israel to deal with violent crime in their communities and work responsibly on a two-state solution with Palestinians. Yet with Lieberman playing kingmaker, it’s going to be difficult for him to endorse any candidate who got the backing of the Arab Party. When you total up all the votes for Gantz with the Arab List Party’s 13 seats, it gives him 57 total seats, four shy of a government coalition. Netanyahu, with his Likud Party and nationalist Jewish parties, currently has 55 votes, leaving him six shy of a workable government. Lieberman has the eight votes needed to put Netanyahu or Gantz over the top. While no one knows whom Lieberman will back, it’s doubtful he’ll throw his support to Gantz. Netanyahu doesn’t have another rabbit to pull out of his hat, knowing that he’d lose the ultra religious parties if he seeks Lieberman’s votes.
Netanyahu faces potential corruption charges in the near future, something that Gantz said he’s refused to back in a unity government. Netanyahu thinks Israel’s state prosecutor will drop corruption charges. Serving more than 13 years, Netanyahu is Israel’s longest serving prime minister, known for dodging more than one bullet from his political enemies. Rivlin will have to hear from Lieberman before he decides to whom to throw his support to form a new government. When you consider Lieberman’s hardcore stand toward Palestinians, it’s doubtful the former Moldovan refugee would join any government that includes the Arab Joint List Party. While stranger things have happened, it’s more likely Lieberman would back a coalition with Netanyahu in which he geta any job of his choice, including foreign or defense minister. Libeberman holda all the cards for Netanyahu or Gantz.
Caught in a real dilemma, Netanyahu and Gantz aren’t ready yet to talk about a unity government when Lieberman can still play kingmaker. Rivlin will find out soon where Lieberman intends to toss his votes. Judging by his past views, it’s doubtful Lieberman would join a coalition with Arab’s Joint List Party. Gantz can’t make the argument he deserves to be prime minister because his Blue and White Party commands two more votes than Netanyahu’s Likud Party. With Israel’s parliamentary system, a governing coalition requires at least 61 votes, with both Netanyahu and Lieberman falling short without Lieberman. Getting the backing today of Arab’s Joint List Party might have sunk Gantz’s chances to get Lieberman’s votes. Ever-shrewd-and-experienced Netanyahu knows how to make a deal, even if it means ending the military service exemption for ultra-orthodox religious parties.
