Sending U.S. troops to the Middle East at the request of Saudi Arabia, 73-year-old President Donald Trump went to the aid of the world’s largest oil producer. When Cruise missiles and predator drones struck Saudi Arabia’s massive Abqaiq oil refinery and oil fields Sept. 14, U.S. intel agencies attributed the attack to Iran, not Yemen’s Houthi rebels that immediately took responsibility for the attack. Saudi Arabia and Yemen have been at war since 2015, trading attacks across each other’s borders. Supplying Houthis with advanced weapons, Iran has used the Saudi-Yemen conflict as a proxy war to retaliate against the Kingdom. Sending troops to the region, Trump put Iran on notice that any more attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure would be met with a swift military response. Meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Sept. 17, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the attacks “an act of war.”
Saudi Arabia has asked the U.N. to investigate the origins of the attack, despite acknowledging that, at the very least, Iran “sponsored” the attack. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Commander Major Genera Hossein Salami said Iran “was ready for any type of scenario.” “We will never allow war to encroach upon Iran’s territory,” Salami said, warning the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to think twice about retaliating. Saudi Foreign Minister Abdel al-Jubeir said that Saudi Arabia would take “appropriate measures” once U.N. inspectors determine the origins of the attack. “We are sure that the attack was mot launched from Yemen but from the north,” said al-Jubeir, echoing the intel provided by Pompeo. While U.S. and Saudi officials know the attack originated from Iran, they don’t know who launched the drones and Cruise missiles. It’s possible Hezbollah or some other Iranian-backed group launched the attack.
Saudi Arabia finds itself caught between a rock-and-a-hard-place, not knowing who’s responsible for the attacks. What’s most troubling to the Saudis as they feverishly work to repair the damaged refinery is that the attack could happen again. Trump’s instinct is to avoid another military conflict in the Middle East, stating that the U.S. was not attacked. Asking for U.S. troops primarily in a defensive or support capacity does not mean that a U.S. or Saudi attack is imminent. “Sometimes they talk of military options,” Salami said, referring to Americans. Salami insisted that any attack on iran would not be “a limited aggression will not remain limited,” threatening to hit American ships or bases anywhere within range. Salami’s goal is to intimidate the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to stand down, avoid any retaliatory strike. U.S. and Saudi officials currently have no deterrent to Iranian aggression.
Iran sees every action taken in the Middle East as defensive in nature, after surviving 40 years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. “We’ve stood tall for the past 40 years and if the enemy makes a mistake, it will certainly receive a crushing response,” said Brigadier Gen. Ammirali Hajizadeh, the IRGC’s aerospace commander. Since former President Jimmy Carter, no U.S. administration has done anything to contain Iran’s ballistic missile technology, now threatening Saudi Arabia and the region. With Iran knocking out 5% of the world oil capacity last week, there’s more at stake now for global energy markets. Iran has the ballistic missile capacity to cripple Saudi’s oil production, without any way of stopping incoming missile attacks. U.S. Aegis Missile Defense System did nothing to stop the surprise attack, leaving Saudi’s oil infrastructure in tatters.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a member of the Armed Services Committee, told the U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper that more sanctions—no matter how severe—won’t stop Iran’s proxy war with Saudi Arabia or, for that matter, it’s plans to build a nuclear bomb. Since Trump pulled out May 8, 2018 of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA], Iran has ramped up its aggression in the Middle East and North Africa. Recent attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman with Limpet mines were attributed to Iran or its surrogates. Trump has a real dilemma on his hands wanting to avoid military confrontation, while, at the same time, deterring Iran from more acts of aggression on Saudi oil facilities. “When it [the probe] is completed, we will take appropriate procedures to deal with this aggression,” said al-Jubeir, without saying what the Saudis would do.
Ramping up more sanctions on Iranian banks, Trump hopes to squeeze Iran into coming back to the bargaining table. Heading to the U.N. General Assembly this week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out any talks with Trump. Iran has insisted that any talks require the U.S. to return to the JCPOA or end all economic sanctions against Iran. With Saudi Arabia putting the investigation into U.N. hands, it’s going to take time before it can rule definitively on who launched the Sept. 14 attacks on Saudi’s oil infrastructure. Iran’s use of surrogates, like the al-Quds force, Hezbollah or other splinter groups of the IRGC, it’s difficult to pinpoint who’s responsible. As Pompeo and 34-year-old Saudi Defense Minister Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said, Iran “sponsored” the attacks. Finding out which splinter group pulled the trigger won’t stop more attacks in the future.
