Calling Hezbollah’s militia in a “new phase” against Israel, 59-year-old Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah threatened to escalate its border skirmish with Israel unless it stops flying drones over the Lebanon border. Hardened by his involvement backing up Iran and Russia in the Syrian War, Nasrallah acts more brazen than ever, boasting about his new arsenal of precision-guided ballistic missiles aimed at practically every strategic target in Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, faced with a new election Sept. 17, has been uncharacteristically quiet responding to Nasrallah’s boasts. Nasrallah fought Israel to loggerheads Aug. 14, 2006, causing significant damage to Lebanon’s infrastructure, something that Beirut officials want to avoid. Like Hamas in the Gaza Strip, periodic wars with Israel accomplish nothing other than winning sympathies—and more cash—in the Arab world.
Nasrallah warned Israel that his new generation of guided missiles could decimate every part of Israel, including its military. What Nasrallah forgets is that Israel’s Air Force holds a decisive military edge over any of its enemies. It wouldn’t take long for Israel to knock out Nasrallah’s guided missile sites and much of its armaments. Shooting missiles into Israel Sunday, Nasrallhah said it sends “a clear message that if you attack, then all your border, your forces and your settlements at the border and [deep inside] will be at risk.” Nasrallah knows that if he pushes too hard, Netanyahu will command Israeli Defense Forces to strike deep inside Lebanaon. Hezbollah and its allies control nearly 70 seats in Lebanon’s 128-seat parliament. Whatever Nasrallah’s clout, the last thing Lebanon wants is a war with Israel, putting Hezbollah on notice to go too far. War with Israel would hurt the Beirut government.
Hezbollah’s currently spread too thin defending Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose grip on Syria has improved over the last year. Once a hotbed of terrorism and Saudi-backed rebel groups, Nasrallah has won high praise from Iran and Syria in its defense of al-Assad’s regime. Much to the objection of the U.S. and European Union [EU], Hezbollah, with the help of Russia and Iran, has managed to keep al-Assad in power, despite concerted efforts by the Saudis, U.S. and Turkey to oust him from Damascus. Working closely with Russia, Iran has done everything it could to keep al-Assad in power, especially arming Nasrallah’s Hezbollah militia. Nasrallah claims his guided missiles struck and Israeli armored vehicle, killing all inside, something the IDF has not confirmed. Nasrallah promised to strike more Israeli drones should they stray into Lebanon’s sovereign territory.
Nasrallah warned that “this is no longer a red line,” referring to the alleged missile strike on an Israeli armored-personnel carrier. Israel has demanded that Iran stop supplying Hezbollah and Hamas with guided missiles. Israel sees Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism in the Mideast in North Africa. Iran has supplied Yemen’s Houthi rebels with the guided missiles needed to strike inside Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu blames Beirut’s government for supplying Hezbollah with enough guided bombs to wreak havoc in Israel. Israel blamed Iran for supplying Hezbollah with more lethal weapons to threaten Israel, essentially admitting a proxy war against Israel. Trump’s decision to negate the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] directly relates to Iran’s proxy war against Saudi Arabia and Israel, something Trump wants stopped before discussing sanctions relief.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei continues his predecessor’s, the late 1979 revolutionary Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei, anti-Semitic rhetoric, antagonizing Israel by hosting Holocaust deniers’ conferences. While the EU, especially French President Emanuel Macron, hopes to salvage the Iranian Nuke Deal, they refuse to take a stand on Iran’s malign activity in the Mideast and North Africa. Sponsoring a proxy war against Saudi Arabia by arming Houthi rebels is reason enough to re-impose sanctions on Iran. “We will continue to do whatever is necessary to defend Israel at sea, on land and in the air. We will continue to act against the threat of the precision-guided rockets,” Netanyahu said in a video message. Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz told Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas that Hezbollah could get Beirut in a whole lot of trouble.
Fighting a bloody war in 2006, losing nearly 1,200 Lebanese civilians, Nasrallah can only push things so far until Beirut takes the brunt to Hezbollah’s bravado. “What constrains them is that neither side wants a war: Each wants to use it as part of their own internal propaganda machine, but neither side genuinely wants war,” said Maha Yaha, director of Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut. What Yaha doesn’t get is that Netanyahu isn’t concerned about war with Hezbollah as long as they continue to amass weapons of mass destruction against Israel. Beirut’s economy, already downgraded by Fitch to CCC, would be devastated in any altercation with Israel. “A full scale war is the last thing this region needs,” said an unnamed Iranian official. Israel has no intention of full-scale war, only preemptively degrading Hezbollah war-making machine, especially its guided missile arsenal.
