Heading to Tehran to engage in some high stakes diplomacy, 64-year-old Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes to talk some sense into the Mullah government. Rejecting all U.S. overtures for dialogue, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khaenei slammed the door on 72-year-old President Donald Trump. Khamenei threatened to ramp up uranium enrichment unless the European Union signs a deal guaranteeing sanctions relief to the Islamic Republic. Trump cancelled U.S. involvement in former President Barack Obama’s July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPA], ending punitive Iranian sanctions. Trump cancelled the agreement because he could not verify Iran’s compliance on secret bomb-making, but, more importantly, its material support of terrorism across the Mideast and North Africa. Khamenei has thumbed his nose at renegotiating with Trump.
Taking things seriously, Abe knows that Trump sent the U.S. aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln together with a squadron of B-52 bombers to the Persian Gulf. Trump wants Iran to know he means business when it comes to Iran’s malign activities in the region, including sending arms-and-cash to Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since entering into the Nuke Deal with Obama, Iran has spent its newfound cash on more proxy wars through its Republican Guard Corps., something Trump designated a terror group April 8. Iran’s feisty 59-year-old U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif accused the Trump of phony diplomacy, trying to bully the Islamic Republic. “I’m not looking to hurt Iran at all. I’m looking to have Iran say: No nuclear weapons,” Trump said in a Tokyo news conference, rejecting Iran’s pursuit of an A-bomb.
Meeting in Tehran June 12, Abe brings a message that ramping up nuclear enrichment is not acceptable. “We have enough problems in the world right now with nuclear weapons. No nuclear weapons for Iran. And I think we’ll make a deal.” Trump’s sanctions, aiming to stop Iran’s oil exports, have crippled the Iranian currency and economy. Iran’s rial currency is trading a one-fourth the value since Trump ended the Iranian Nuke Deal. Despite Trump’s attempt at diplomacy, Khamenei has voided the effort. Let there be no mistake, Abe’s mission, whether stated or not, is to let the Ayatollah know Trump is dead serious about stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Every time Iran doesn’t get its way, Khamenei or, his puppet president Hassan Rouhani, threatens to ramp up weapons uranium. Iran can’t threaten Trump with enriching uranium without consequences.
Iran’s kidding itself thinking that it’s going to get Abe to buy cheap Iranian oil to divide the U.S.-Japan relationship. Abe’s going to Tehran to send a message from Trump to the Ayatollah that the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln isn’t heading to the Persian Gulf for a training exercise. Iran has threatened to shut down the narrow Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of the world oil travels. Sending a carrier strike force to the region shows Trump’s resolve to keep the waterway open. Zarif ratcheted up the rhetoric accusing Trump of “economic war” against the Islamic Republic. ‘We have said it clearly that economic war is not different from a military war at all. Mr. Trump has announced that he is pursuing economic war,” Zarif said, warning the U.S. that its navy is vulnerable to Iran’s new Khordad 15 surface-to-air missile system that could take down a U.S. carrier.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas plans to visit Iran Monday to salvage the JCPA, reassuring Iran on Germany’s commitment to the agreement. Speaking in Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates, Maas pleaded for calm. “We want to avoid any misunderstandings that would lead to automatic reactions that could lead to violence,” Maas said “All those involved bear responsibility to absolutely avoid a spiral of escalation and this is a view I will also express very clearly tomorrow on the opposite shores of the Gulf,” Maas said, referring to Iran and Riyadh. Maas also knows that the West can’t be blackmailed by Iran’s threat of nuclear enrichment. Iran faces fierce criticism in Saudi Arabia for backing Houthi rebels to fight a proxy war against the Kingdom, recently hitting Saudi oil tankers or targeting the holy city of Mecca with medium range ballistic missiles.
If Iran attacks the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln carrier strike force in the Persian Gulf, all bets are off when it comes to Trump’s response. Unlike Obama, Trump won’t inhibit the Pentagon’s rules of engagement dealing with Iran. Zarif makes matters worse saying the U.S. has, in effect, gone to war with Iran. Zarif was too young to remember what real war was like when former President George W. Bush hit Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein with Shock-and-Awe March 20, 2003. Maas hopes to salvage the JCPA but Saudi Arabia isn’t buying it. Emirate’s Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayedd Al Nahyan said a new Nuke Deal was needed to deal with Iran’s ballistic missile program. Saudi Arabia knows all about Iran’s ballistic missiles. Any attempt to make the agreement successful, we think, needs all countries of the region to be part of it,” said Sheikh Abdullah, urging Iran to come back to the table.
