Ordering the reopening the Columbia border, 56-year-old Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro signals that that 35-year-old opposition leader Juan Guaido’s U.S.-backed coup is dead. Since declaring himself interim president Jan. 24, Guaido failed to deliver on his pro-Democracy movement to topple Maduro’s socialist government. Guaido promised the world but delivered nothing to the Venezuela people he claimed backed him for president. Maduro successfully consolidated the military and asserted his power, making Guaido look weak-and-ineffectual. Guaido’s decision to name himself interim president had almost no backing from the military, lining up behind Maduro. President Donald Trump, while saying he backed Guaido, stopped short of military intervention, something feared by Maduro and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Whatever social or economic problems exist in Venezuela, there’s no serious interest from the U.S. or South American states to oust Maduro. When Putin and Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canal put Russian and Cuban advisers in Caracas, the U.S. and its allies backed down. Guaido called for U.S. military intervention but, in the end, found a reluctant customer with Trump. Trump talks tough but has no stomach for using the U.S. military to intervene in foreign wars. “We are a people of peace that strongly defends our independence and self-determination,” Maduro said, reopening the border with Columbia. No longer concerned about Guaido’s attempted coup, Maduro has no problem reopening the Columbian border even if it involved allowing U.S. and foreign aid. For months after Guaido appointed himself interim president, he acted like Maduro was finished.
Guaido left Venezuela May 2 to drum up support for ousting Maduro, despite getting no commitments from foreign leaders. Guaido practically stood on his head May 22 trying to get Trump to use the U.S. military to oust Maduro. Trump told Guaido that if he had the support he claimed to take power from Maduro, he would have gotten more popular support. In the end, Guaido could not summons the needed support to topple Maduro. When Trump saw that the Venezuelan military still backed Maduro, he refused to give Guaido military backing. Guaido promised he had enough popular support to oust Maduro, something that didn’t materialize. When you consider Guaido talked 50 countries into endorsing him as interim president, it’s remarkable that anyone went along. Trump had the patience to wait-and-see whether Guaido could delver the goods.
Venezuela has suffered under a socialist dictatorship since the late Hugo Chavez assumed power April 14, 2002. Chavez presided over South America’s oil rich country, with oil reserves exceeding Saudi Arabia. Yet over the last 19 years Venezuela has watched its currency and economy crash, leaving ordinary Venezuelans deprived of basic necessities like food and medicine. Maduro closed the border Feb. 2 when Trump heeded Guaido’s wishes, threatening U.S. military intervention. U.S. and European countries donated millions of tons of food and medicine, only to watch it rot when Maduro closed the border. Guaido has caused a bigger humanitarian crisis in Venezuela by asking for U.S. military help to oust the Maduro government. If Maduro were not so threatened in February, he might have allowed humanitarian aid shipments.
When Guaido appointed himself interim president, Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton all jumped at the chance to get rid of Maduro. Unlike Trump who remained skeptical of military intervention, Trump’s foreign policy and national security team was ready to pounce on Venezuela. Pompeo and Bolton ratcheted up the gunboat diplomacy to the point Maduro decided to seal off his borders. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned Trump about military intervention, especially with Russian and Cuban advisers in Caracas. Maduro insists the U.S. has been engaged in an “economic war” against Venezuela, worried about a foreign invasion. His decision to open up the Columbian border signals for the first time since Guaido declared himself interim president that he’s more secure.
When you look at the big picture in Venezuela, Guaido seduced the U.S. into possible military intervention to oust the Maduro government, causing Maduro to seal off the borders, preventing humanitarian aid. Guaido bluffed his way declaring himself interim president when his movement actually lacked popular support. Trump saw through Guaido’s bluff and refused to heed Pompeo and Bolton’s pressure to send in U.S. troops. Now that Guaido’s been exposed, it’s time for the U.S. and its allies to accept Maduro as the leader of Venezuela’s sovereign government. Guaido needs to resign from his fantasy as Venezuela’s interim president and work with Maduro’s government to offer more opportunity for Venezuela’s beleaguered people. More threats from Guaido and U.S. only makes a bad situation worse.
