Clashing with his Russian counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, on Venezuela, 56-year-old Secretary of State Mike Pompeo asked Russia to get out of Caracas. With Russia, Cuba and China having hundreds of advisers in Caracas, the time has long pased for the U.S. to intervene in Venezuela. Pompeo spoke with Lavrov today, urging him to get Russian advisers out of Venezuela. President Donald Trump and Pompeo have applied maximum pressure on 56-year-old Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to surrender power to 35-year-old opposition leader Juan Guaido. Guaido, once head of Venezuela’s National Assembly, declared himself president Jan. 23 under a provision in the Venezuelan Constitution allowing him to disregard fraudulent results of a presidential election. Trump, Pompeo and 53 countries in Europe, Asia and South America recognize Guaido as Venezuela’s president.
Guaido has been busy organizing pro-Democracy protests around the country, insisting that he’d prevail on the Venezuelan military currently backing Maduro. So far, Guaido hasn’t delivered on enough popular support or backing in the military to pressure Maduro to surrender power. While Trump claimed he had “a very good conversation” with Russian President Vladimir Putin May 4, largely about humanitarian aid, Pompeo insists the Russia must get out. “The Russians must get out,” Pompeo told ABC New “This Week” with George Stephanapoulos. “I’m going to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in recent days. It’s very clear, we want the Russians out, we want the Iranians out, we want the Cubans out. It’s very clear,” said Pompeo. What’s equally clear is that the Russians, Cubans, Chinese and small Iranian continent have no intent to leaving Venezuela.
Unlike Pompeo, who tends to get ahead of his skis, Trump doesn’t want to intervene militarily in Venezuela, regardless of Guaido’s requests. “He’s not looking to get involved in Venezuela other than he’d like to see something positive happen in Venezuela,” Trump said. Meeting with Lavrov in Moscow, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreza pushed back against Pompeo’s statements. “We call the Americans, and all those supporting them, to abandon their irresponsible plans and to act exclusively with the boundaries on international law,” Lavrov said. Unlike the U.S., Russia, China, Cuba and Iran are in Venezuela at the request of the sovereign government, regardless of Guaido’s assertions of power. Guaido disputes the legitimacy of the May 20, 2018 presidential election, staking his claim under the Constitution Jan. 23, 2019 as the interim president.
However Guaido interprets the Venezuelan Constitution, it’s not legitimate to stake claim to the presidency without approval of the Venezuelan High Court. While Guaido has much support, as many as 53 countries want Maduro out, he doesn’t have the backing of the Venezuelan military, still sticking with the Bolivar Revolution passed on to Maduro March 5, 2013 with the late President Hugo Chavez’s death. “Maybe because we still need more soldiers, and maybe we need more officials of the regime willing to support it, to back the constitution,” Guaido told the Washington Post, trying to explain why his uprising hasn’t worked. “I think the variables are obvious at this point,” Guaido said, not admitting that no legal authority has given him sovereignty other than his own interpretation of the Venezuelan Constitution. Guaido hopes to get U.S. military backing to remove Maduro.
Rumored on the Internet and elsewhere, Pompeo circulated a story that Maduro had agreed to political asylum in Cuba, then stopped by the Russians. Russia and Maduro have forcefully denied the rumors, saying it was part of a U.S. disinformation campaign to get rid of Maduro. Guaido hoped that the street uprising would be enough to convince enough military to jump ship against Maduro. When that didn’t happen, it made Guaido look like a fool. All the talk about his legitimacy under the Venezuelan Constitution or recognition from 53 countries looked rash, considering he controls nothing other than small street protests around Venezuela. Trump correctly recognized that Guaid lacks the support within the Venezuelan military to cause regime change in Caracas. Pompeo continues to insist that there are “bump roads” ahead, and could take “two weeks, four weeks,” to remove Maduro.
Trump and Pompeo aren’t on the same page at this point, unless one sees a “good cop, bad cop” strategy happening. So far, Trump has only said publicly that he wants humanitarian aid to reach the Venezuelan people, a far cry to Pompeo’s open call for regime change. “But Maduro can’t feel good. He’s ruling for the moment but he can’t govern,” Pompeo said. “This is someone who cannot be part of Venezuela’s future,” calling directly for Maduro’s ouster. When Pompeo meets with Lavrov in the near future, he’ll be told that that U.S. can’t impose regime change on Venezuela, regardless of Guaido’s claims to legitimacy. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Columbia President Ivan Duque Marquez both sympathize with Guaido but don’t accept the uprising to remove Maduro from power. Unless the military backs Guaido, his pro-Democracy uprising will go nowhere.
