Meeting today in Tehran, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani rejected Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ceasefire plan, essentially allowing Syrian rebels and terrorists to stay in Idlib. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has put all rebels and terrorists on notice that they must get out of Idlib, the last rebel and terrorist safe haven in Syria. With Russia and Iran’s help, al-Assad has driven rebels and terrorist out of all safe havens in Syria, fleeing to the final safe zone of Idlib. After turning Aleppo into a rock pile in 2017, al-Assad allowed rebels and terrorist groups to flee to other safe havens, eventually parking nearing the Turkish border. Neither Putin nor Rouhani accept Erdogan’s proposed ceasefire without and commitment from rebels and terrorist to disarm, given safe passage to a neutral country yet to be decided.
When you consider that the U.S. under President Donald Trump has no intention to giving safe have to al-Qaeda or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, he agrees with Putin and Rouhani that there can be no compromise when it comes to terrorists. Unlike former President Barack Obama and the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz), Trump doesn’t support the seven-year-old Saudi proxy war to topple al-Assad. While Trump shows concern for a possible humanitarian crisis in Idlib, he sees no role for the U.S. military unless al-Assad uses chemical weapons. Obama and McCain supplied arms-and-cash to the Free Syrian Army and then Syrian Democratic Forces, both group seeking to oust al-Assad. “If we announce a ceasefire today here, I believe this will be one of the most important steps of this summit,” said Erdogan, rejected by Putin and Rouhani.
Putin sees any ceasefire without disarmament and relocation of rebel and terror group as a stalling tactic. Erdogan desperately pleaded his case for a ceasefire. “An attack on Idlib will result in a disaster, massacre and a very big humanitarian catastrophe,” said Erdogan, pitching the European Union and United Nations position. Despite backing the Saudi proxy war for the last seven years, the EU and U.N. now want to save face, hoping to avert a new wave of Syrian refugees fleeing the Idlib battlefield. “We consider it unacceptable when, under the pretext of protecting the civilian population, they want to withdraw terrorists from being under attack, as well as inflict damage on the Syrian government troops,” said Putin, not buying attempts to by the U.N., EU and U.S. to stop the final battle. If the U.N., EU and U.S. want to help, they need to disarm and relocate all rebels and terrorist from Syria.
As Russian and Syria fighter jets bombed rebel and terrorist targets around Idlib, U.N. 71-year-old Special Syrian envoy Staffan de Mistura advocated evacuation corridors or safe zones for Syrian civilians. While a mass exodus of Idlib’s 3 million civilians hasn’t happened yet, de Mistura wants protections for civilians. Backing the Saudi proxy war for seven years, de-Mistura now talks about safety for civilians. Had de Mistura stood up to Saudi Defense Minister Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman three years ago, thousands of civilian lives could have been saved. While Russia and Iran agree that there’s no long-term military solution to Syria, they also believe that rebel groups and terrorist cannot be placated. Russia and Iran want a political solution but not the one proposed by Saudi’s High Negotiation Commission to see al-Assad out of Damascus.
Putin wants to continue the Astana, Kazakhstan protocol that calls on all rebel and terrorist groups to disarm in exchange for safe passage out of Syria. De Mistura calls on Syria, Russia and Iran to give Syrian rebels and terrorists safe passage out of Syria. There’s no a single Middle Eastern, European or African country willing to give safe haven to rebel and terrorist groups. “People should be given safe passage to places of their choosing if they want to leave temporarily. We must allow the opening of a sufficient number of protected voluntary evacuation routes for civilians in any direction,” said de Mistura When de Mistura talks of rebel or terrorist groups leaving Idlib “temporarily,” he’s not accepting that the Saudi proxy war has failed. De Mistura still holds out hope that the Saudis, with U.S. and EU backing, can still prevail in ousting al-Assad.
Rejecting Erdogan’s ceasefire, it’s up to the rebels and terrorists to lay down their arms or face certain annihilation. Erdogan has spared no mercy in attacking the Kurds along the Turkish border. Telling Syria, Russia and Iran to accept Idlib as a de factor safe haven runs counter to everything Erdogan does and believes about protecting Turkey’s sovereignty. De Mistura continues to back the Saudi proxy war, unwilling to admit failure in Syria, after seven long years trying to oust al-Assad. With Russia’s warm water fleet based in Tartus, on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, Putin wants all rebel groups and terrorists out of Syra. De Mistura needs to admit the Saudi proxy war failed, telling Riyadh that al-Assad is in Damacus for keeps. Whatever humanitarian crisis looms in Idlib, it’s up to the U.S., U.N. and EU to tell Saudi Arabia to stop its proxy war in Syria.
