Threatening to close the Persian Gulf’s narrow Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian military expects to hold a massive swift-boat exercise, signaling to 72-yer-old President Donald Trump to stop his plan to re-impose U.S. sanctions. With the Iranian Rial at 112,000 per U.S. dollar, dropping over 50% in the last three days, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said his country would not take Trump on his offer for a North Korean-like summit. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani slammed Trump for pulling out the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action AKA “the Iranian Nuke Deal,” designed to get Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program for 10 years in exchange for $1.6 billion in cash and another $150 billion in sanctions relief. Trump called the Iranian Nuke Deal the worst agreement ever negotiated by the U.S., promising when he became president to get out.
Rouhani has practically stood on his head to keep the agreement going with other P5+1 signatories, including Great Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany. Rouhani hoped to undermine Trump’s May 8 decision to withdraw the U.S. and re-impose U.S. sanctions. Since Trump decided to pull out, Iran’s economy has rapidly deteriorated, with its currency losing over 50% of its value. Iran knows when U.S. sanctions go into effect, it’s going to be difficult for the P5+1 countries to stay in the deal without severe repercussions to their economies. Iran can’t accept that its aggression in Middle East and its proxy war against Saudi Arabia in Yemen has made supporting the Nuke Deal impossible. Iran’s 56-year-old U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif threatened to ramp up Iran’s uranium enrichment program if the U.S. follows up with its news sanctions.
Khamenei and Rouhani got too big for their britches deciding to arm Houthi rebels to start a proxy war with Saudi Arabia. Firing too many ballistic missiles at Riyadh prompted Trump to cancel the Iranian Nuke Deal to get more leverage on Iran’s Mullah regime. Today’s street demonstrations and rioting in Isfahan, Iran shows the bubbling frustration with Iran’s Mullah regime. U.S. Central Command confirmed an increase in Iranian swift-boat activities in the Persian Gulf, raising concerns that Iran could be foolish enough to close the Strait of Horumz through which some 25% of the world’s oil travels. “We are aware of the increase in Iranian operations within the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman,” said Navy Cpt. Bill Urban, chief spokesman for Centcom. If Iran moves to close the Strait of Hormuz or any other shipping lane, Trump would respond.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened Iran May 21 with the “strongest sanctions in history,” for Iran’s ongoing aggression in the Middle East and North Africa. Pompeo put Iran on notice that the U.S. accepted the Iranian people but rejected the Mullah regime that brought so much repression to Iran since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei’s 1979 Iranian Revolution. With Iran seizing the U.S. embassy Nov. 4, 1979, holding 52 American hostages 444 days until the inauguration of President Ronald Reagan Jan. 20, 1981, the U.S. has unfinished business with Iran. Iran walks on thin ice threatening the U.S. under Trump, not known to back down. “We are monitoring it closely, and will continue to work with our partners to ensure the freedom of navigation and free flow of commerce in international waterways,” said Urban, putting Iran on notice not to do anything stupid.
If Iran starts to swarm the Persian Gulf with some 100 swift boats or in anyway blocks international shipping lanes, Trump would act decisively to force Iran to back down. Threatening the “mother of all wars” should Trump impede Iranian oil sales, Trump responded forcefully, putting the Ayatollah on notice that any threat against the U.S. would be met with overwhelming force. Zarif yawned, dismissing Trump’s threats as inconsequential bluster. One thing North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un learned dealing with Trump was that you can only push him so far. Kim backed down after Trump promised to respond with overwhelming force if Kim continued his nukes and ballistic missiles. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei, more concerned with maintaining power than anything else, won’t push Trump into precipitous military action, something that would tank the Iranian economy.
Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei learned something different about dealing with Trump: More threats against the U.S. push Iran to the brink. Unlike Iraq, which battled Iran to loggerheads in the [1980-1988] Iran-Iraq War, there’s zero parity with the United States. Any military action by the U.S. would have devastating consequences for Iran’s Mullah regime, already facing nationwide protests for its battered economy and falling currency. Any attempt by Iran to close any international waterway would be met with devastating U.S. force, likely ending the Mullah regime. When Trump offered to meet with Iran, Khamenei and Rouhani should take it seriously, not reject it out-of-hand like they did today. Calling Trump’s summit offer “a dream,” Rouhani would be wise to take it more seriously or watch Iran’s Mullah regime toppled from within. Iran’s people are growing tired of the Ayatollah..
