Since North Korea cancelled May 15 its scheduled meeting with South Korea, doubts surfaced whether 33-year-old North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un would meet with 71-year-old President Donald Trump June 12 in Singapore. While there’s been no official word from North Korea about the June 12 meeting, Trump said at the White House today that the meeting will either happen or it won’t, fueling speculation that the meeting’s been delayed or cancelled. Yet no official word about any change has occurred in Pyongyang or Washington, suggesting that Trump’s playing coy with the American and foreign press. “There’s a very substantial chance . . . it won’t work out. And that’s OK,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “That doesn’t mean it won’t work out over a period of time. But it may not work out for June 12. But there’s a good chance that we’ll have the meeting,” said Trump.
Trump’s the master negotiator when it comes to impossible deals. Certainly meeting with the North Korean dictator falls into the impossible deal category, prompting 93-year-old former President Jimmy Carter to opine that if Trump pulls off a peace treaty with North Korea it would be worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize. Speculation in the anti-Trump media has Trump backing out because he can’t get Kim to de-nuclearize the Korean Peninsula, sparing himself embarrassment. Showing the media has no way to read Trump other than to speculate about him saving face, if the summit’s cancelled or delayed. Whether or not the meeting happens June 12, Trump said it will be determined “pretty soon,” hinting at a possible delay. Trump told North Korea that a summit would give North Korea an opportunity to start the process of economic development, leading to eventual prosperity.
Letting Kim know that he’s willing to reschedule for whatever reason, Trump sent a message to Kim that time’s on his side. It’s North Korea with a problem of harsh sanctions, global isolation and widespread famine. Letting Kim know he can take his time shows that Trump’s not desperate to make any deal with the North Korean dictator. North Korean precipitously cancelled a preparatory meeting with South Korea after the U.S. began war games on Korean Peninsula. When National Security Adviser John Bolton talked May 16 about North Korea turning into the next Libya, it didn’t go over well in Pyongyang. Libyan dictator Col. Muammar Gaddafi was toppled July 22, 2011, only eight years after dismantling his nuke program. Kim has similar concerns about giving up his nukes and ballistic missiles, something Trump expects with any summit, negotiation and peace deal.
Telegraphing from the Oval Office that Trump could take-or-leave the summit puts Kim on notice that the loss would be all his. While Western powers wait with baited breath to end the chance of war on the Korean Peninsula, time’s on Trump’s side. Trump would like to pull off the impossible deal but won’t give in to media pressure to make a deal at all costs. “North Korea has a chance to be a great country and I think they should seize the opportunity,” said Trump, hoping Kim would stay on schedule for the June 12 summit. Before Kim cancelled meetings with South Korea, Trump expected Kim to unilaterally disarm his nuke and ballistic missile program. As the process continued, Trump’s now willing to meet with Kim to discus a peace treaty before expecting North Korean to disarm its nukes and ballistic missiles. Trump met with Moon at the White House to discuss details before the summit.
Both Kim and Trump stand to gain from a summit, even if its doesn’t yield immediate results, especially a commitment from Kim to disarm his nukes and ballistic missiles. If Trump can get a peace treaty from Kim, nuclear disarmament won’t be the top priority. With a peace treaty, the risk of nuclear or conventional confrontation on the Korean Peninsula goes way down. “It’s a smart move to say that he is willing to postpone. But to be credible, the president really has to be willing to walk away and I’m not sure he is,” said Bonnie Glaser, analyst at Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. Hyping whether or not the summit takes place only adds to the drama before the June 12 meeting. South Korean National Security Adviser Chung-Eui-yong said he belives there’s “99.9 percent chance” that Trump’s meeting with Kim would take place as usual.
Reading between the lines, Trump’s public remarks are designed to make the meeting all the more miraculous if it goes as scheduled. South Korean President Moon Jae-in sought to dispel the negativity surrounding the Kim-Trump summit. “But I don’t think there will be positive developments in history if we just assume that, because it all failed in the past, it will fail again,” sounding eternally optimistic. Trump sees Chinese President Xi Jinping as equally invested in pulling off the June 12 summit, despite all the noise in Washington. “President Xi is a world class poker player,” said Trump hinting that Xi works his magic to pull off the summit behind the scenes. If you believe Chung’s prediction about the summit going ahead on schedule, it gives a better way to assess what’s happening. Trump and Kim stand to benefit even if the results aren’t immediately obvious.
