Touring the U.S. in March, 33-year-old Saudi Defense Minister Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman warned that The Kingdom’s on a collision course for war with Iran. With Iran supplying Houthi rebels long-range missiles now reining down in Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh, Bin Salman asked Washington for help to deal with Iran’s aggressive incursions in the Middle East. President Donald Trump agrees with the Crown Prince that Iran’s proxy war in Yemen could engulf the entire Middle East. Iran’s active role, together with Russia, has kept Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power, despite a seven-year Saudi-backed proxy war to change regimes in Damascus. With Trump replacing his National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster March 22 with former U.N. Amb. John Bolton, Bin Salman sees a change in the works in U.S. foreign policy when it comes to Iran.
Trump agrees with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the July 14, 2015 Comprehensive Plan of Action AKA Iranian Nuke Deal gives Iran a clear path to developing a nuclear bomb. Negotiated by Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran’s U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Bin Salman believes all the sanctions relief enabled Iran to secretly work on its nuke and ballistic missile program. When North Korean opened an embassy in Tehran Aug. 4, 2017, it hinted at nuclear and ballistic missile cooperation. Both Iran and North Korea, two legs of former President George W. Bush’s Jan. 29, 2002 “Axis of Evil” State-of-the-Union Speech, have been working on operational nuclear weapons for decades. While North Korean’s nuclear advances have been well-publicized by the regime, Iran’s nuclear work remains secretive, out of the reach of U.N. inspectors.
Saudi Arabia believes Bolton has more sympathy to The Kingdom’s dilemma with Iran than H.R. McMaster. McMaster subscribed to the European Union view that some nuke deal with Iran was better than no deal. Netanyahu pleaded with a joint session of Congress March 3, 2015 that the impending Nuke Deal would give Iran more cash with which to pursue an aggressive foreign policy, but, more importantly, a clear path to a bomb. Netanyahu argued that as long as Iran prevents inspectors from its most sensitive military sites, there’s no way of verifying they’ve stopped nuclear work. Iran’s Nuke Deal, negotiated by the P5+1 [U.S., UK., France, Russia, China and Germany], doesn’t require intrusive inspective of Iran’s most sensitive nuclear sites. Even if the agreement suspends Iran’s weapons grade uranium program for 10 years, there’s no provision for stopping it after that.
Trump’s instincts, before bringing on Bolton, was to scrap the deal, re-instituting economic sanctions until Tehran agreed to intrusive U.N. inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA]. “Bolton is a hawk supporting a hard line with both Iran and North Korea,” said Martin Edwards, diplomacy expert at Seton Hall University’s School of Diplomacy and International Relations. Whether or not your liberal or conservative, most experts agree that Iran currently supports Houthi rebels in a proxy war in Yemen. “The concern is real here. In contrast to McMaster’s preference for sober analysis, Bolton might well support the worst instincts of the president rather than try to contrain them,” showing Edward’s clear anti-Trump bias. Trump backed ending former President Barack Obama’s seven-year-old Saudi proxy war to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Calling McMaster’s policy sober now that he’s no longer National Security Advisor shows the kind of political bias inserting itself into foreign policy. Trump’s evolving decision to end U.S. involvement in Syria shows that he’s opposed to U.S. military intervention when it’s not based on national security. When you consider the clear-and-present danger posed to the U.S. by North Koreas nukes and ballistic missiles, the most “sober” approach is not appeasement. Recent reports that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un considers disarming his nuke and ballistic missile stockpile stems directly from Trump’s red line drawn on North Korea’s nukes and ballistic missile program. Trump let the world know that the U.S. is prepared to use military force to stop Kim from getting an operational nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missile [ICBM]—something that threatens the U.S. homeland.
Trump’s upcoming decisions May 12 to re-certify the Iranian Nuke Deal or impose new economic sanctions. With Tehran meddling in Syria and Yemen, the Crown Prince asked Trump for help to stop growing Iranian influence. Watching his country hit with Iran’s ballistic missiles shows that Saudi Arabia already battles a proxy war with Iran in Yemen. “The Crown Prince is right to be worried about Iran’s growing clout in the region—from Iraq and Syria to Yemen and Lebanon, they’ve outplayed the Saudis nearly everywhere,” said Chris Meserole, a Mideast Expert at the Brookings Institution. Messorle still worries that canceling the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action would result in Iran getting more aggressive. Whether that’s true or not, neither the U.S. nor Saudi Arabia can build a foreign policy out of fear of Iranian reprisals or threat to work feverishly on an A-bomb.
