Heading for a government shutdown Midnight, Friday, Jan. 20, President Donald Trump’s played hardball with House Democrats insisting that any Continuing Budget Resolution [CR] must include an extension of DACA [Deferred Action Childhood Arrivals]. Democrats demand that DACA be continued for at least three years, allowing grown children of illegal immigrants to stay in the country. Trump wants funding for his Mexican border wall, something Democrats see as a waste of money. “The President certainly doesn’t want a shutdown, and if one happens I think you only have one place to look and that’s the Democrats who are holding our military and our national security hostage by trying to push through other policies, that have nothing to do with the budget,” said White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, hyping the effect on the U.S. military
Essential government services like the military, national security, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and air traffic control aren’t affected by government shutdowns Huckabee wants to put the blame on Democrats, turning the CR into a political issue during an election year. Democrats hope to retake both houses of Congress, keeping the heat on President Donald Trump and the GOP with endless Congressional investigations into Russian meddling and allege Trump collusion. When you consider the political fallout from a government shutdown, there’s no question it would hurt Republicans more than Democrats. Trump already faces a daily barrage of bad publicity coming the mainstream press, committed, like never before, to confront Trump’s attacks on what he calls the “fake media.” Trump plays a dangerous game of chicken threatening a government shutdown over DACA.
Public opinion shows more support for DACA than Trump’s border wall, viewed as superfluous because fencing already exists. “A government shutdown will be devastating to our military . . . something the Dems care very little about,” tweeted Trump, exaggerating damage to the military and national security. What hurts the military more are not temporary government shutdowns but long-term budgets that involve the GOP-backed “sequester,” forcing cuts to the military and social programs when budget deficits go out-of-control. To avert ad government shutdown, members of Congress need to continue the CR, giving temporary funding for a specific time period. “The bar of the CR is pretty low. You’re not agreeing to anything new politically. It’s a no brainer,” said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Trump signed the last CR Dec. 21, 2017, keeping the government funded until Jan. 19. Instead of both parties working on a long-range budget fix, the CRs are the easy way out, allowing both parties to kick the can down the road. Democrats have the upper hand when it comes to DACA, with most voters not carrying that much about a border wall. When you consider the fallout from a government shutdown, it puts pressure on Trump to continue DACA, backing off on the border wall. When the government shutdown happened under former President Barack Obama, Oct. 1, 2014 to Oct. 17, 2013, it cost the government $24 billion in lost revenue. Costs to some 850,000 furloughed federal workers cost the government $2 billion. If Democrats find that the government shutdown helps their chances in the 2018 Midterm elections, then there’s little Trump can do to stop it.
Ending DACA is a losing proposition for the GOP, with most Americans agreeing that the so-called “Dreamers” entered the country through no fault of their own. “I expect as long as we can we’ll continue at least kick the can with CR,” said Goldwein, thinking both sides stand to lose with a shutdown. “Essential staff at top level agencies would continue working but most federal employees whose jobs aren’t vital would like be sent home,” said Goldwein. Non-essential employees would likely get furloughed, keeping postal workers, Transportation Security Agency [TSA] and air traffic controllers would likely stay on the job. Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and Food Stamp recipients would likely continue business-as-usual. Only non-essential government services would find themselves temporarily cut. If political fallout is too great for either party, the shutdown won’t happen.
Given the high stakes during an Election Year, both parties can’t afford to trade blame heading into November’s Midtem elections. “Everyone loses from a government shutdown. An employee loses their paycheck at the time he or she needs it,” said Goldwein. Ultimately, we’re going to fund it anyway. It’s kind of silly,” referring to the fact the government shutdown must end—so why let it happen in the first place? Both sides play a dangerous game of chicken with federal employees’ lives. No one in Congress loses cash over a government shutdown, only rank-and-file government workers. With the budget-conscious Trump concerned with waste, fraud and mismanagement, it makes zero sense economically for a government shutdown. Talking tough today doesn’t mean when the 11th hour looms, Trump won
t give in on DACA to keep the government running.
