Seizing control of the Royal family Nov. 4, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud’s 32-year-old son Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman [MBS] had authorities incarcerate at least 11 members of the Royal Family, including billionaire Alwaleed bin Talal and 200 others. Bin Salman, who serves as defense minister, justified the arrests based on a sweeping anti-corruption purge. But conspicuously behind the 32-year-old’s move was consolidating his position as the undisputed heir-apparent to his ailing father King Salman. While Bin Salman was detaining his cousins and government ministers, Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri bolted his country for Riyadh, claiming he could no longer perform his duties with Hezbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah usurping his power. Nasrallah blamed Hariri’s departure on Saudi Secret Service, something making zero sense..
Hariri made it clear that Iran and Hezbollah made it impossible to do his job, fleeing to Riyadh for safety. Bin Salman finds himself caught in the vise of his war in Yemen, while, at the same time, trying to consolidate his position as the heir apparent of his father King Salman. Nasrallah disputed Hariri’s account, insisting he was placed under Saudi house arrest. To believe that, you’d have to think Hariri sought his own arrest by flying to Riyadh. Let there be no mistake, Hariri fled to Riyadh to escape threats on his life from Hezbollah. Iran’s growing influence in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, left Bin Salman no choice but to seek help from the United States. “I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia [Mohammed], they know exactly what they’re are doing. Some of those they are harshly treating have been “milking” their country for years,” tweeted President Donald Trump
Trump’s comments seem at odds with the State Department who have called Crown Prince Bin Salman’s actions “reckless,” placing the Kingdom in danger. Bin Salman started the war in Yemen March 19, 2015, essentially fighting a proxy war against Iran. Saudi Arabia knows a lot about proxy wars since starting the Arab Spring in 2011, trying to topple Mideast dictators, succeeding in Tunisa, Egypt and Libya. When it came to Syria, President Bashar al-Assad pulled out all-the-stops, getting the help of Russia and Iran to beat back a well Saudi-funded insurgency backed by former President Barack Obama. Since Trump came to power Jan. 20, 2017, he no longer backs the Obama policy of giving arms-and-cash to Syrian rebels committed to toppling al-Assad. Trump’s kept his focus on beating back the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS], not regime change in Damascus.
Bin Salman’s war in Yemen hasn’t gone well, with Saudi Arabia bogged down in a guerrilla war with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis. Hit with an Iranian-made intermediate range ballistic missile Nov. 4 near Riyadh’s International Airport, Saudi’s 44-year-old U.S.-educated Foreign Ministr Adel al-Jubeir called it an act of war. Since then there’s ongoing concerns that Saudi Arabia was close to war with Iran. One more missile strike deep inside the Kingdom could result Saudi retaliation. But with Bin Salman busy cementing his power, it’s doubtful Saudi Arabia would spread themselves too thin. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson hoped Bin Salman would relax tensions with Qatar after implementing a blockade in June against the Arab Emirate. So far, MBS has shown no indication he’s ready to ease tensions, end the blockade and reconcile with Qatar anytime soon.
Bin Salman believes Iran has waged a proxy war against the Kingdom, hitting Riyadh Nov. 4 with an Iranian missile. After losing badly in Syria, Bin Salman’s in no mood to make concessions with Sanaa-based Houthis in Yemen. Killing some 10,000 civilians since the Yemen war began March 2015, Bin Salman hasn’t made much progress with a relentless bombing campaign. Taking out Sanaa’s main airport Nov. 7, Riyadh sees no let up in the fighting. Calling the military action in Yemen Operation Decisive Storm, Bin Salman sees the battle as between Riyadh and Tehran. Bin Salman blames Iran for Houthi rebels taking over Yemen’s capital Sept. 21, 2014. Bombing Houthi rebels has done little to retake Sanaa from the Houthi’s, leaving Yemen in Iran’s orbit. Saudi Arabia fears Iran’s growing influence in the Arab World, asking the U.S. for more military help.
Trump doesn’t look inclined to open up a new front in Yemen. With the Taliban throwing the U.S. fits in Afghanistan and things going poorly in Iraq, Trump doesn’t want another Mideast War. When Iraq muscled its way against the Kurds retaking oil-rich Kirkuk Oct. 17, the U.S. faced some tough choices: Defend the Kurds or Iraq. Trump decided to let Iraq retake control of formerly Kurdish-controlled territory around Kirkuk. When ISIS defeated the Iraq military, seizing some 30% of Iraq in 2014, the Kurds were left to fend for themselves. Iraq lost oil-rich Kirkuk to ISIS in summer 2014, eventually seizing it back Oct. 17. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi seized back Kirkuk largely on orders from Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the unintended consequences of the Iraq War. With Bin Salman embroiled in the Yemen War, there’s zero chance he’s ready to take on Iran.
