Telling Baghdad they plan to defend Kirkuk, Iraqi Kurds warned Baghdad that they wouldn’t give up their oil reserves without a fight. Abandoned by the Iraqi government when the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria overran Kirkuk June 6, 2014, the Kurds were left to fend for themselves defending their autonomous region in Northern Iraq. Now that the Peshmerga established control over the territory once seized by ISIS, Iraqi President Haider al-Abadi wants the oil revenue back. Al-Abadi knows that Iraq’s beleaguered army collapsed in the summer of 2014, handing their U.S.-made military hardware to ISIS. Were it not for the Peshmerga, ISIS would have taken over all of northern Iraq. Now that the Kurds have control over Kirkuk, al-Abadi wants it back. Threatening to bring in the Iraqi army, al-Abadi gave the Kurds a deadline to withdraw 2300 GMT, Sunday, Oct. 15.
U.S. Special Envoy to Iraq Brett McGurk has some big decisions to make whether or not to defend the Kurds against Baghdad. When you consider how much blood the Kurds have spilled fighting ISIS for the U.S., it’s inconceivable McGurt can deny the Kurds protection. Al-Abadi has been coordinating an assault with Iranian-backed Shiite militias called Popular Mobilization Fronts [PMF]. Whether admitted to or not by the State Department, al-Abadi has asked Iran for help to repel Kurds in Kirkuk. Iraq’s growing closeness to Tehran should alert the White House that the U.S. must stand by the Kurds. “The deadline set for the Peshmerga to return to their pre-June 6, 2014 positions will expire during the night,” Kurdish officials told the AFP French news agency. Baghdad has threatened to move in the Iraqi army to retake Kirkuk from the Kurds.
Barzani has told Peshmerga fighters in Kirkuk to hold the line against Baghdad, prompting the U.S. to engage in furious diplomacy to prevent a war between the two U.S. allies. Iraq’s Kurdish President Fuad Masum was busy in Suliamaniyah trying to avert a confrontation with Baghdad. When you consider Baghdad lost Kirkuk to ISIS in 2014, it’s outrageous that Baghdad expects to seize back Kirkuk from the Kurds. Whether admitted to or not by al-Abadi, the Kurds are Iraq’s best buffer against any foreign invaders in northern Iraq. Since Iraq got sovereignty from the British in 1932 after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after WW I, the Kurds were left hanging. Living in the hinterlands of Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran, the Kurds have never had their own state. Considered a mortal enemy of Turkey, the Kurds have been offered nothing by Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran.
Conspiring with Iranian-backed militias to evict the Kurds from Mosul, Barzani has signaled the Kurds won’t go down without a fight. Left for dead after the ISIS takeover of Mosul and Kirkuk in 2014, Baghdad did nothing to protect the Kurds. Former Iraqi Dictator Saddam Hussein gassed the Kurds at Halabja March 18, 1988, killing around 5,000, in the worst poison gas attack in history. Yet somehow the Kurds survived. Now threatened by Baghdad, McGurk must put al-Abadi on notice that the U.S. will defend the Kurds from any attack by Baghdad. With the Kurds acting as the U.S. boots-on-the-ground in the fight against ISIS in Raqqa, Syria, it’s inconceivable the U.S. would let Baghdad attack the Kurds. McGurk should immediately notify al-Abadi that any attack by Baghdad against the Kurds would be met with a vigorous U.S. defense.
Juggling hotspots around the globe including North Korea and Iran, Defense Secretary James Mattis works overtime to de-escalate an imminent conflict between Baghdad and the Kurds. Mattis knows that he can’t turn his back on the Kurds should al-Abadi decide to attack the Kurds, especially coordinating with Iranian-backed Shiite militias. Al-Abadi said there can be no talks with the Kurds until they nullify the Sept. 25 independence referendum, asking the Kurds to nullify their identity. Al-Abadi knows that Kurdish independence is long overdue, requiring not to nullify the Sept. 25 referendum but to negotiate oil revenue issues in Kirkuk; Kirkuk. Since abandoned by Baghdad in 2014, there’s zero reason for Iraq to battle the Kurds over oil revenues. Iraq can’t expect to take control over Kirkuk now that it’s part of the Kurd’s autonomous territory.
As President Donald Trump remains focused on defeating ISIS in Raqqa, Mattis has some heavy lifting preventing Baghdad from attacking the Kurds. Baghdad’s 2003 post-Saddam constitution protects the Kurds autonomy in norther Iraq. Once Baghdad abandoned Kirkuk in 2014 to ISIS, the Kurds were left to fend for themselves. Only recently has the U.S.-backed Baghdad government had some military successes in Mosul with the help of U.S. Special Forces. With Kirkuk part of Iraq’s Kurdistan since 2014, al-Abadi needs to think twice before bully the Kurds to get out of Kirkuk. Joining up with Iranian-backed Shiite militias to oust the Kurds from Kirkuk speaks volumes about Baghdad. White House and Pentagon officials should give the Kurds all the backing—including military support—needed to keep Kirkuk inside the Kurd’s autonomous region.
