Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave his blessings to an independent Kurdish state, anticipating the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] in Raqqa, Syria. With the Kurdish YPG Peshmerga providing the boots-on-the ground for the United States fighting under Syrian Democratic Forces, it was a matter of time before the Kurds declared an independent state. Iraq’s Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani announced he would hold a Sept. 25 referendum for in independent state. “Israel supports the legitimate efforts of the Kurdish people to achieve their own state,” said Netanyahu. With a long relationship with the Kurds dating back to the 1960s, Israel identified strongly with the long-oppressed multi-religious minority living for centuries in the no-man’s-land around Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Netanyahu’s endorsement carries clout in Washington.
President Donald Trump understands the sacrifices made by the Kurds battling ISIS in Raqqa and elsewhere in the Middle East. Netanyahu raises what all players in the region wish to avoid: What to do with the Kurds. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, fresh off ousting ISIS from Mosul July 8, won’t cede any territory to the Kurds, especially where it concerns oil-rich Kirkuk. Since 2014, much of ISIS’s revenue stemmed from illicit oil sales from Iraq’s Kirkuk oil. Based in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, Barzani wants more than revenue-sharing from Kirkuk’s oil sales. Looking to the future, Brazani wants a Kurdish homeland, something vehemently opposed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan views all Kurds as his enemy, much like he does the Kurdish Workers Party [PKK], a group Turkey regards as a terrorist organization.
U.S. and Israeli officials regard the Kurdish YPG militia differently than the PKK, who’s been fighting the Turks for Kurdish independence for over 100 years. U.S. and Israeli officials hope to convince Erdogan that the YPG is different, now spilling their blood to defeat ISIS in Raqqa. Expecting the YPG to fight the U.S. battle comes with a price, whether admitted to or not. Watching the YPG battle ISIS, there’s simply no reward for the Kurds other than hoping Secretary of State Rex Tillerson can stand up to Erdogan and back and independent state in northern Iraq. Knowing the Kurd’s sacrifice in Raqqa, Tillerson won’t capitulate to Turkey’s demands to prevent an independent Kurdish state. Applying pressure on al-Abadi to accept a Kurdish state in northern Iraq won’t be easy.
When Netanyahu speaks Sept. 19 to the U.N. General Assembly, he might endorse an independent Kurdish state, prompting the U.S. to follow suit. While Arab states usually oppose Netanyahu, it going to be difficult to ignore the issue if raised by Trump in his remarks to the General Assembly. Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq have spent generations oppressing the Kurds, despite the fact that the Kurds have a strong family and work ethic, enhancing communities where residing. Left in the semi-autonomous regions of Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq, sovereign states have no problem ceding territory to the Kurds as long as there’s no independent state. With Netanyahu comes out first endorsing a Kurdish state, it’s going to pressure the White House stand up to Turkey accept an independent state. With zero sway in Turkey, Iran and Syria, U.S. hopes that Iraq can work something out for the Kurds.
Calling the Kurd’s Sept. 25 referendum a “threat . . to civil peace and regional security,” al-Abadi threatened to take any measure needed to defend Iraq’s sovereignty. Al-Abadi knows that the Kurds are Iraq’s friends, through all the bad times with Saddam Hussein and now ISIS. Calling them a threat to “civil peace and regional security “ is preposterous since the Kurds have only provided stability to Iraq. “I call upon the Kurdish leadership to come to Baghdad and conclude a dialogue,” al-Abadi told a press conference Under U.S. pressure, al-Abadi might cut the Kurds a percentage of Kirkuk’s oil revenue without granting them sovereignty. Whatever referendum Barazani circulates Sept. 25, it will only show Kurdish interest in an independent state, not whether it’s acceptable to Baghdad. Iraq’s Kurdish legislature walked out of a session after rejecting the Kurdish independence referendum.
Heading for a showdown in Baghdad, Kurdish leadership seeks an independent state whether accepted or not in Baghdad. If Barzani declares an independent state around current Kurdistan borders in Iraq, it could trigger al-Abadi to send in Iraq’s military. Already weary from battling ISIS in Mosul, al-Abadi’s army may not have the stomach to battle the Peshmerga in Kirkuk. U.S. officials would be forced to choose between Baghdad and the Kurds, leaning toward the Kurds. Kurdish legislator Majid Shingali said the vote in Baghdad opposing the Kurdish referendum holds no value. No matter how much the U.S. backs a Kurdish state, a brief war of independence may be needed, like it was for Israel in 1948. Kurds can count on the U.S. for cash-and-arms to support an independent state. With the Kurds finishing off ISIS in Raqqa, it’s time to fight for their independence.
