After ejected from Mosul, Iraq July 5 and close to losing Raqqa, Syria, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS], still controls remote villages in ungoverned areas, promises to regroup and launch more terror attacks in the West. Whatever the threats by ISIS Sheikh Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS has lost dramatic swaths of territory in Iraq in Syria. ISIS exists because of the many Mideast failed states, unable to provide young men with a future, instead resorting to Islamic gang violence. No matter how fanatical fringe elements of radical Sunni Islam, ISIS provides employment and hope to disenfranchised souls seeking spiritual salvation, but, more importantly, a way to survive in the harsh Mideast landscape. Losing territory in Iraq and Syria has redoubled efforts of ISIS loyalists to show relevance after suffering humiliating battlefield losses in sacred ground once called a Caliphate.
Battling ISIS in Raqqa, the head of Kurdish intelligence Lahur Talabany warned the West about more desperate ISIS terror attacks. ISIS followers have no where to go other than seek refuge in more remote locations, much like al-Qaeda after Sept. 11 when Osama bin Laden’s terror gang went incognito. “ISIL [Islamic State of Iraq and Levant] has lost a lot of land in Iraq and Syria, but this is not the end of ISIL,” said Talabany, telling British Defense Secretary Sir Michael Tallon that more attacks are on the way. Talabany estimates that at least 500 British jihadists fight with ISIS in the Mideast, not to mention sleeper cells all over Great Britain and other EU countries. Talabany thinks al-Baghdadi hides in the desert border-lands between Syria and Iraq, continuing to run the Caliphate. Talabany, whose Kurdish YPG [Kurdish Protection Units] battles ISIS in Raqqa, seeks an independent Kurdish state.
.When you consider the lion’s share of Syrian Democratic Forces are U.S.-armed Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, it’s become more obvious why the Kurds have put their blood on the line to battle ISIS. Doing the U.S. dirty work, the YPG, with the help of various Arab fighters, battle ISIS daily in Raqqa to liberate the city. Once ISIS falls in Raqqa, Talabany won’t get congratulatory calls from Damascus or Moscow, both opposed to Kurdish independence. When Raqqa falls,. the U.S. will be so indebted to the YPG, that they’ll have to back a Kurdish state in Iraq over the objections of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan equates the YPG, currently fighting with the U.S.-backed Syria Democratic Forces [SDF] with the Kurdish Workers Party [PKK], who’s been battling Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran for years. Edrogan considers all Kurds his mortal enemy.
Whether or not al-Baghdadi’s alive or dead, ISIS—or some hybrid terror group—continues to suck up wayward youth unable to survive any other way than by joining extremist groups. “We are going to see a lot more attacks on the West that are designed to boost the morale of fighters who have suffered heavy losses,” said Talabany. “The more sophisticated attacks are being organized by the leadership around the Baghdadi camp,” said Talabany, emphasizing the need to decapitate the head-of-the-snake. Whether Bagdhadi can do anything now other than hide out is anyone’s guess. Chased from Iraq and Syria, al-Baghdadi finds himself in the same place as Bin Laden after Sept. 11, on the run in perpetual hiding. Unlike al-Qaeda, whose second in command Ayman al-Zawahiri was nearly as diabolical as Bin Laden, al-Baghdadi finds his command-and-control losing its grip.
Talbany believes ISIS has bluffed its way into its current situation, losing territory and prestige by the day. “ISIL plays the media card very well,” said Talabany. “They used the media to demoralize the government forces in both Iraq and Syria, but they were never as strong as they led the world to believe,” attesting to the steady loss of territory. Once evicted from Raqqa, ISIS will be forced into guerrilla-style warfare. Talbany expressed his gratitude to the U.S. and coalition forces for the military resourcesl needed to successfully end ISIS reign of terror. “We are very grateful for the help we have received from the coalition forces,” said Talabany. “Their backing meant it was too much for ISIL to handle. But the real gratitude and quid-pro-quo comes after SDF drives ISIS from Raqqa, when the U.S. must back a Kurdish state in Iraq, something bound to cause political fallout.
Getting backing for an independent state from the U.S. and U.K., the YPG hopes to make good on a statehood referendum happening in September. Iraq Prime Minster Haider al-Abadi has his work cut out for him, reconciling his Shiite government with Iraq’s Sunni tribes, while, at the same time, dealing with the inevitability of an independent Kurdish state. Granting Kurds independence gives al-Abadi breathing room against Sunni radicals that would like to topple his Shiite government. While Turkey would resist any attempt at Kurdish independence, it’s up to al-Abadi’s sovereign government to cede Iraqi territory to the Kurds. Battling ISIS in Raqqa, the Kurds hope for more than glory from the U.S. and U.K. “We want to thank the U.K. government for their support,” said Talabany. “But we need them to stay engaged for the next phase as we rebuild the country,” hoping for statehood.
