Shooting down a Syrian SU-22 Russian-made bomber June 18 for allegedly bombing Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF] near the Syrian town of Ja’Din, south of Tabqah, a U.S. F/A-18 fighter jet upped the ante, prompting warnings from the Kremlin. Since Sept. 30, 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been defending Syria with Russian air-power, helping turn the seven-year-old proxy war into Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s favor. Russia wants al-Assad regime pitted the U.S. against Russia, with former President Barack Obama backing SDF and other rebels to topple al-Assad. When former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton backed a no-fly zone Oct. 12, 2016, it prompted former German Foreign Minster and current President Frank-Walter Steimeir to warn of WW III. Yesterday’s downing of a Syrian bomber raises the specter of rapid escalation
Pentagon officials justified the shoot-down, claiming it was defending SDF forces, currently involved in Operation Inherent Resolve, from Syrian bombardment. “We do not seek a conflict with any party other than ISIS, but we will not hesitate to defend ourselves or our partners if threatened,” said Cpt. Jeff Davis. Davis’ statement irked the Kremlin who’s been defending al-Assad’s sovereignty since Sept. 30, 2015. Russia’s Defense Ministry put the U.S. on notice that any U.S. or coalition jet or drone flying West of the Euphrates River will be tracked as potential targets. U.S. and Russian officials have set up a “de-confliction” line to prevent mishaps that could bring U.S. and Russian warplanes into direct military confrontation. Shooting down a Syria bomber to protect Saudi-backed rebel groups, like SDF, was bound to meet stiff resistance from Russian officials.
Obama spent much of his presidency supplying arms-and-cash fueling the Saudi-proxy war against al-Assad. Shooting down a Syrian warplane yesterday changes things in Syria, especially since Russia and Syria managed to drive out Saudi-backed SDF forces from Aleppo in Dec. 2016. Pentagon officials can’t pretend that SDF forces are only committed to evicting ISIS from Syria. Backed by the Saudis, the SDF seeks regime change in Damascus. White House strategy under 71-year-old President Donald Trump in Syria hasn’t changed much since Obama. While Trump railed against Obama’s strategy during the campaign, including backing Saud-funded rebel groups to topple al-Assad, not much has changed. Stepped up efforts to rid ISIS from Raqqa in Syria have antagonized Turkey by partnering with Kurdish YPG forces, a group they sees as tied to their enemy, the PKK.
When Turkey shot down a Russian warplane Nov. 24 2015, it raised urgent questions of what NATO would do to defend Turkey in case of Russian retaliation. Russian President Vladimir Putin showed restraint, eventually mending fences with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With U.S.-Russian relations at Cold War lows, the U.S. can ill-afford to test Putin’s patience. U.S.-Russian military confrontation in Syria or Iraq could escalate quickly. “I’m sure because of this, neither the U.S. not anyone else will take an actions to threaten our aircraft,” said Viktor Ozerov, chairman of the Russian parliament’s defense and security committee. “The worst thing any of us could do right no is address this with hyperbole,” said Gen. Joseph Dunsford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. There’s no hyperbole when the Russian military says it will shoot down U.S. fighter planes.
Playing with fire, the Pentagon better contain SDF forces before they pull the U.S. into a military confrontation with Russian. There’s nothing ambiguous about what the SDF wants: To topple al-Assad. While the Pentagon claims SDF force are focused on defeating ISIS in Raqqa, Saudi’s High Negotiation Commission has only one goal in Syria: Getting rid of al-Assad. Kurdish YPG forces seem aligned with U.S. objectives to rid ISIS from Raqqa and Mosul in Iraq, but various Saudi-backed Arab fighters seek regime change in Damascus. Letting surrogates like the SDF fight ISIS in Syria and Iraq presents problems, because the U.S. can’t c control the disguised agenda of Saudi-backed Arabs fighting to rid the region of al-Assad. White House officials must get their priorities—and loyalties—straight before SDF forces drag the U.S. into a wider conflict with Russia.
Looking to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Saudi-backed rebel groups in Syria have a bigger agenda that battling ISIS. Only the Kurds can be trusted by the U.S. to keep Riyadh’s regim-hange obsession in Damascus in check. Saudi-backed Arabs fighting under the SDF seek more than evicting ISIS from Raqqa. Before the U.S. finds itself in a direct military confrontation with Moscow, Trump must rethink U.S. military strategy in Syria. Downing a Syrian jet, regardless of what it did, was a big mistake, especially under the excuse of defending SDF forces. Instead of letting Washington’s Russian hysteria to set U.S. foreign policy, Defense Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson must get on the same page, figure out how to work with Russia’s military objectives and avoid the sort of cowboy policy that’s left U.S.—and world—closer to the brink.
