LOS ANGELES (OC).–Holding urgent talks in Geneva, U.S. and Iranian officials hope to avoid war and resolve remaining issues on a new nuke deal to satisfy President Donald Trump. Trump moved military assets to the Middle East reently, sending the carrier strike groups Abraham Lincoln and Gerald R. Ford to the region to let Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei know that thing could go either way. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arargchi and Omani Foreign Minister Sayid Badr Albusaidi to hammer out a way Iran could offer a new way forward on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Whether denied or not by Iran, Trump believes Iran seeks a nuclear weapon, enriching uranium to near weapons’ grade material. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran must also curtail its ballistic missile program that threatens Israel.
Iran’s Supreme Leader knows that things are more serious now with Trump in the White House than with former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Obama crafted with his Secretary of State John Kerry the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] that traded Iran billions in cash and sanctions relief for restraining its nuclear enrichment program. Trump objected to Obama’s plan because it provided no verification arrangement with U.N. weapons inspectors, not guaranteeing Iranian compliance. So, on May 8, 2018, Trump cancelled Obama’s hard-fought JCPOA, much to the chagrin of Democrats. Trump’s decision was based on the lack of a verification or compliance mechanism, allowing Iran to continue enriching uranium without any U.N. weapons inspections. Today’s talks in Geneva are far more serious since Trump is ready to start bombing the Ayatollah’s regime.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Trump to focus on curtailing Iran’s ballistic missile program, something he’s no likely to do. With Hamas and Hezbollah no longer with the same clout with Israel, the Ayatollah relies heavily on his ballistic missile arsenal to keep enemies at bay. When Israel fought Iran June 12-24, 2025, Iran hit Tel Aviv and Haifa with numerous ballistic missiles causing extensive damage. Trump can’t decide what to do with the military build-up in the Mideast. Trump has told Ayatollah that he must stop slaughtering street protesters with estimates of deaths around 36,000 or more. Trump told Iranians to keep protesting at their own peril, telling them that help was on the way. So when it comes to Trump’s next move in Iran, it has a lot to do with how negotiations for a new nuke deal go in Geneva.
Ayatollah has run out of options with his Foreign Minister Aragchi trying to salvage his mullah regime Aragchin know the regime hangs by a thread with the Iranian people wanting it out, but, more importanly, Trump holding the military assets locked-and-loaded to take out the reigme at anytime. Trump said that if he doesn’t get a deal soon with Iran, then “bad things are going to happen.” When it comes to Iran’s ballistic missile program there’s less flexibility in curtailing the program. After the 12-day war in June 2025, Trump and Netanyahu know that Iran lacks the air defense needed to repel any enemy attack. So, when it comes to the U.S. negotiating position in Geneva, Trump holds the cards. Iran can no longer bluff its way into the U.S. making concessions. Iran wants sanctions relief to sell its oil in world markets, especially to China and and India.
Rubio said Iran’s refusal to address its ballistic missile program was a big obstacle in Geneva talks “If you can’t even make progress on the nuclear program, it’s going to be hard to make progress on the ballistic on the ballistic missile as well,” Rubio told reporters in St. Kitts. Rubio has been playing bad cop, hoping that it pushed negotiations along in Geneva. Witkoff and Kushner can only do so much to convince Iran to give up its nuclear enrichment program. How much damage was done last year to Iran’s nuke programs is anyone’s guess. No one knows for sure whether Iran still produces fissile material at its Fordo underground plant after B-2 Stealth bomber dropped bunker-buster bombs on the facility. Trump said in the State-of-the-Union that Iran’s enrichment program was “obliterated,” so why all the work on a new nuke deal in Geneva?
White House officials obviously think that Iran was left with some nuclear capability, despite last year’s war with Israel and the U.S. Netanyahu wants negotiators to focus on Iran’s ballistic missile program, something not likely to take place. Trump must decide whether he wants to risk a protracted bombing campaign to get rid of the Ayatollah’s regime. Getting a nuke deal is a face-saving way out for Trump but doesn’t deal with Iran’s bloody crackdown on street protesters looking to end mullah rule. Trump’s State-fo-the-Union mentioned nothing about Iran for national security reasons. Whatever happens, Trump doesn’t want to tip his hand to Iran or any other U.S. enemies. Iran has been asking Russia to intervene to save the Islamic Republic. With Russian President Vladimir Putin bogged down in Ukraine, he has no resources to lend to Iran.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
