LOS ANGELES.–French President Emmanuel Marcon, 46, faced more backlash with French voters with his Renaissance Party losing ground to the Marine Le Pen’s conservative National Party [RN], prompting Macron to call for snap elections Jun 30. “This is an essential time for clarification,” Macron said, deciding to call parliamentary election. “I have heard your message, your concerns and I will not leave them unanswered,” Macron said, knowing he needs a majority in his party to govern. Macron currently enjoys a 169 to 88 majority in parliament over Le Pen’s conservative RN Party. Any substantial victory or majority in legislative elections would spell doom for Macron in the three years ahead of presidential election, making government all the more difficult. Macron has faced backlash for an ongoing recession where the Frankfurt-based European Central bank cut interests rates June 6 to 3.75%.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell hopes the Consumer Price Index [CPI] number on June 12 helps him cut the Federal Funds rate now at 5.25%, the highest in over 20 years. Powell has put off slashing rates due to persistent inflation, running at about 3.5%, 1.5% higher than the Fed’s target of 2%. Whatever the economic issues in the U.S. and EU, it’s all tied to the Ukraine War where the U.S. and EU spend cash out of the respective treasuries to battle the Kremlin in Ukraine. Macron was forced to call of snap elections, hoping there’s still time to convince voters that his Renaissance Party is the only one that represents the vast majority of French citizens. Macron has put himself in the headlines recently threatening to add French troops to the Ukraine War, something that prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to issue dire warnings.
Macron turned from Putin ally to enemy, apparently embracing 81-year-old President Joe Biden’s approach to the Ukraine War, essentially blaming Putin for conspiring to take over more European territory. Biden and Macron have no facts to support their accusation that Putin seeks to expand the Russian Federation into Europe. Yet Macron infuriated Putin recently saying there were conditions under which France would commit troops to Ukraine. Biden called Putin the next coming of Adolf Hitler during D-Day festivities in France, making a fool out himself. Comparisons to 1939 Europe are preposterous with Putin incursion into Ukraine. Putin warned the U.S. and EU that continuing to arm Ukraine would result in a “special military operation” designed to de-fang Ukraine now that it’s become at threat to Russian national security. Biden denies he provoked Putin by arming Ukraine with lethal U.S. weapons.
Macron’s Renaissance Party won only 15% of the vote, with Le Pen’s National Rally Part winning 32%. Even the French Socialist Party almost beat Macron showing at 14%. Macron has gone astray on the economy and foreign policy in recent months, prompting the strong showing by Le Pen’s National Rally Party. If RN wins a majority in parliament June 30, Macron would essentially be a lame duck until he runs again in 2027, handling only national defense and foreign policy. Macron, who holds a lead in the parliament 169 to Le Pen’s 88, hopes he can maintain his majority, and lead a unity government for the next three years. But with a reversal of fortune he could wind up losing power most his governing power. “Macron has called an election he might lose,” said global consultancy Taneo. Taneo thinks Macron might be playing a long-game.
Macron’s “goal might be to bring an RN victory forward in time to expose the party’s lack of experience in government and make them confront politically painful decisions of the 2027 presidential election.” Taneo said, thinking it’s more strategy than anything else. Oliver Blanchard, former IMF officials with MIT, says Macron plays a long-term strategy to survive. “Either the incoherence of the RN program becomes clear during the campaign and it loses the election. Or, the RN wins, gets to govern and quickly makes a mess of it,” Blanchard said, no fan of Le Pen’s RN Party. Conservatives all over Europe, led by Hungarian President Viktor Orban, have made ground because the EU knows how much trouble pro-immigration parties have caused the EU over the years, supporting former President Barack Obama’s war in Syria that caused over 500,000 deaths, millions of refugees.
Macron faces some tough choices heading into parliamentary elections June 30. He could gamble hoping he retain a strong majority or he could lose his gamble. Macron bets that the vast majority of French voters want the country led by Macron’s center-left Renaissance Party, not a conservative Party like Le Pen’s RN. “A right wing coalition to me seems more necessary than ever,” said Marion Marechai Le Pen’s niece, a political ally of Eric Zemmou and his far right Reconquete Party, looking to join forces with Le Pen. Macron has played the odds in the past and come out on top. There’s no reason to think that France’s demographics have fundamentally changed. Calling snap elections could remind voters that they still prefer a moderate governing majority. Macron took office in 2017 and has learned what it takes to continue staying on top.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
