Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Demeer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi plan to visit the White House next week to discus growing concerns about Iran’s nuke program. Israel has recent struck Iranian positions in Damscus, Syria and in Isfahan, ratcheting up tensions with some analysts see growing prospects for war. With the White House embroiled in the Ukraine War, it has limited resources at the moment for dealing with Iran’s nuke program, especially Israeli concerns now that 73-year-old Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is back in power. When 76-year-old President Donald Trump cancelled May 9, 2018 the 2015 Iranian Nuke Deal AKA The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Democrats and the press went wild. But Trump knew he had to do something to stop Iran’s proxy war with Saudi Arabia, arming Yemen’s Houthi rebels to attack The Kingdom.
Democrats and the press slammed Trump for endangering former President Barack Obama’s Iranian Nuke Deal, negotiated with the P5+1 [including Russia, China, U.K, France and Germany], saying it would increase chances of Tehran getting a bomb. Unlike Democrats and the press, Trump didn’t trust Obama’s nuke deal because it had no verification provision with Iran refusing to grant U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] inspectors access to secret military enrichment sites. When Biden took office Jan. 20, 2021, he promised to work with the P5+1 to revive a new version of the Iranian Nuke Deal. Biden found out the hard way that Iran can’t be trusted, largely for recently supplying Russia with Kamikaze drones to attack Ukraine. Iran’s loyalty to Russia, seeking to join the BRICS economy alliance, made restoring Obama’s Iranian Nuke Deal impossible.
Whatever the break out time to a bomb, U.S. and Israeli nuclear experts think Iran already has enough enriched weapons grade uranium to build several nuclear bombs. Whether or not Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a sworn enemy of the U.S., orders Iran’s nuclear scientists to build a bomb is anyone’s guess. Most U.S. nuclear experts think it’s already happened, despite the Ayatollah’s denials. Testifying before the House Armed Service Committee Feb. 28, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Karl blamed Trump for increasing Iran’s weapons grade uranium. Karl has no idea whether Iran was cheating on uranium enrichment because of the lack of verification. Iran denies that its interested or focuses on nuclear weapons, something viewed skeptically in Israel and the U.S. CIA Director Bill Burns, 66, told CBS New Margaret Brennan he doesn’t think Iran has decided to weaponize its nuke program.
Israeli officials won’t find too much receptivity at the Defense Department to rock the boat on Iran when the White House is embroiled in the Ukraine War. Like so much of Israeli politics, it easy to get worked up over existential threats, especially with Iran. Iran has a way of provoking Netahyahu like no other country, largely because of Holocaust denial and threats by past officials to “wipe Israel off the map.” Iran, a Shiite country, likes to pander to Sunni countries, especially Gulf Arab States and North African Muslim countries. Iran likes to use Israel to antagonize Palestinians and other sympathetic Muslim states like Turkey which controlled the Holy Land for 500 years before the 1922 break up of the Ottoman Empire Israeli officials won’t find the State or Defense Departments too keen on planning military moves on Iran’s many secretive uranium enrichment facilities.
Israel and the U.S. have spent years calculating a “break out time” for Iran developing its first A-bomb. It’s been the subject of endless speculation, especially in Israel where fear of a nuclear Holocaust runs rampant. Embroiled in the Ukraine War, the last thing on Biden’s mind is Netanyahu’s latest concerns about Iran;s “break out time.” Ron Demer and Hanegbi will find a different mood at the Defense and State Departments, both consumed with the Ukraine. With Biden giving Ukraine’s 45-year-old President Voldymyr Zelensky a blank check, the war will like escalate this Spring into a Battle Royale that could easily spill into other countries. So far, Biden and Zelensky have shown no interest in ceasefire and peace talks, thinking they can continue degrading the Russian military. More fighting promises more death and destruction before both sides eventually acquiesce to peace talks.
White House officials will make plenty of excuses why there’s little the U.S. is prepared to do to stop Iran’s uranium enrichment program. When Demer and Hanegbi meet with 60-year-old Secretary of State Antony Blinken and 45-year-old National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan they’ll be told nothing can be done during Ramadan, Muslim’s holy month of fasting and prayer. Blinken and Sullivan will want to know all about Netanyahu’s plans to reform the Israeli judiciary and about new settlement building in the restive West Bank. When it comes to dealing with Iran, Demer and Hanegbi won’t find White House suggestions too helpful, especially because the White House is buried in a proxy war against the Russian Federation. White House officials told Netanyahu to cool down his close ties to Putin, until after the conflict moves from the battlefield to the peace table.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
