China warned of serious repercussions from the spy balloon shoot down, without saying what if anything they would do. China actually apologized to the U.S. government for allowing its weather balloon to stray into U.S. air space, saying it was a misfortune based on the Jet Stream or prevailing trade winds. So, when it comes to a response, it’s less likely that Beijing will make much ado about the embarrassing shoot down of its spy ship. Pentagon officials rejected the idea that the air ship was a weather balloon designed to record atmospheric data. Secretary of State Anton Blinken, 60. cancelled his recent trip to Beijing over the incident, saying China violated U.S. sovereignty by flying a spy balloon over U.S. air space. President Joe Biden, under heavy pressure, delayed the shoot down until the spy balloon passed over many strategic U.S. air forces bases housing nuclear weapons.
Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin said the likely intel obtained, if any, was no more dangerous to U.S. national security than China’s network of spy satellites, monitoring U.S. activities on a daily basis. U.S. officials expressed concerns that China to take more steps to retaliate, blaming the U.S. for an “overreaction.” Yet recent Chinese Foreign Ministry statements apologized to U.S. officials for what it says was an inadvertent mistake due to weather conditions that pushed the balloon off course. China and the U.S. have experienced tense diplomatic relations in recent months, especially after 82-year-old House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan Aug. 4, 2022 over Beijing’s objections. Biden didn’t help matters when he said Sept. 23, 2022 that he would defend Taiwan with U.S. troops in the event of a Chinese invasion. Chinese President Xi Jinping accused Biden of violating the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
China’s economy continues to rebound after a Covid-19 slowdown, not seen in China for several years. Xi wants to normalize U.S.-Chinese relations, knowing the misery seen with U.S.-Russian relations, damaging the Russian economy. Xi wants no part of worsening bilateral ties with its biggest trading partner. ”The path of rebuilding U.S.-China relations remains likely remains on track,” said Zhao Tong, senior fellow at the China office of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and visiting researcher at Princeton University. “The two sides still have a shared strong interest in stabilizing and responsibly managing the bilateral relationship,” Zhao said. China doesn’t like to lose face with the United States, at the same time doesn’t want more obstacles to restoring cooperative relations. Shooting down the balloon was a perfunctory PR act.
Biden waited at least five days before learning about the spy balloon drifting into U.S. air space before taking decisive action. Republicans led by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Michael Turner (R-Ohio) criticized Biden for waiting five days, allowing the spy balloon to collect data as it traveled across the U.S. to the east coast where it was eventually shot down Feb. 4 over Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Biden’s critics came out in full force, largely because he’s been getting some better publicity from the nation’s record low unemployment rate. When you add up the PR damage to Biden, the balloon incident doesn’t amount to much, largely out of the news by next week. If China doesn’t retaliate, Biden will be seen as the wiser politician, restraining his response until the balloon was over open water. Pentagon officials warned Biden about shooting it down over populated areas.
China has too much to lose diplomatically that making a big deal over the incident it claims was an inadvertent accident. “Against manned platforms we might expect China to exercise restraint, but against unmanned ones it becomes more uncertain—especially if Beijing believes that it’s possible to contain fallout since it involves no crew,” said Colin Koh, fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, seeing Beijing show restraint. China’s state media, normally quite vocal in reacting to international incidents especially involving the U.S., said very little in response to the balloon shoot down. When Pelosi visited Taipei, Chinese media was nonstop making threats against the U.S. “I’d expect they’d protest moderately but hope to sweep this under the rug and reinstate progress on senior-level visits within months,” said Christopher Twomey, at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School.
China expected the U.S. to shoot down its spy balloon without creating an internal crisis. Unmanned aerial objects are treated differently that manned spy operations where either deaths occur or equipment or hostages are taken. Shooting down the inflatable object represents a minimal loss to China, considering the PR damage from trespassing in U.S. air space. U.S.-Chinese Relations have much work to repair the damage from the first two years of the Biden administration, where the White House held China’s feet to the fire especially on alleged human rights abuses. Washington and Beijing want to repair damage to U.S.-Chinese relations and won’t likely let a useless spy balloon get in the way. At some point soon, Blinken will reschedule his trip to Beijing, with new leverage to seek concessions on trade talk and a raft of other issues. Whether relations improve or not is entirely in the White House court.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
