Lessons from the 2022 Midterm election give a mixed picture for Democrats and Republicans. Democrats are likely to hold onto the U.S. Senate, while Republicans look to take a majority in the House. It’s tempting to get swept up in the post-election hysteria that has Republicans disappointed that a “red wave” never materialized, while, at the same time, 79-year-old President Joe Biden didn’t exactly win a big victory. Conventional wisdom indicates that the ruling party, this time Democrat, gets whacked in the Midterm elections. Judging by those standards, Biden actually did far better than former President Donald Trump in the 2018 Midterms, where Republicans lost both houses of Congress. Yesterday results, though not complete, show the U.S. electorate is still deeply divided with the Supreme Court’s June 24 ruling overturning 1973 Roe v. Wade, giving women the right to abortion.
Supreme Court’s shock ruling ending Roe v. Wade took a lot of steam out of the GOP’s chances in the Midterm election. It’s difficult to underestimate the damage done to the pro-choice Republican Party, when the High Court took a woman’s right to choose abortion away. Also looming over the Midterm election is the prospect of former President Donald Trump running for president. White Trump has his backers, maybe 25% of voters, he’s dreaded by the vast majority for making another run as president. So voters knew that if they gave Republicans a big victory in the Senate and House, Trump would be more inclined to run in 2014. Democrats lost plenty of votes because the runaway inflation, high energy prices and the U.S. economy heading into recession in 2013. Voters usually vote pocket book issues, knowing the U.S. economy has under-performed under Biden.
When you consider Democrats enjoy a 20% voter registration advantage over Republicans, it’s a major feat for the GOP to take back the House. When it comes to the Senate, Republicans had twice as many seats challenged in the 2022 election as Democrats, increasing Democrats chance of picking up new seats. So, when the dust settles and all the votes are counted for the U.S. Senate, Democrats could easily hold a one seat majority heading into the Jan. 2023 term. But when considered the extent of gerrymandering in Congressional districts around the country, it’s remarkable the GOP was able, as it stands now, to take back the House. Republicans are grumbling that they didn’t do as well as they liked but, at the end of the day, they performed a remarkable feat of taking back the House. Senior Vice President of Ipsos polling Chris Jackson said Republicans came out worse than Democrats.
President Joe Biden touted Democrats success in possibly holding the Senate, using the Midterm election to bolster his popularity. Biden is anything but popular with his average approval ratings around 42%. But when it comes to Tuesday’s results, it looks like GOP gains in the House will send House Speaker Nancy Pelosis packing, maybe for retirement. “What we can say is that this election cycle Republicans—and particularly Trump Republicans—couldn’t get out of their way and let thinks like inflation or the economy dominate the discussion, which probably would have Republicans to better gains,” said Jackson, giving his liberal view of the Midterms. Jackson has no clue that gives Democrats registration advantage that Trump dragged down the Republican Party. Democrats benefited by the June 24 Supreme Court ruling ending Roe v. Wade.
Questions of how the Midterm election helped or hurt Trump’s chances of running in 2024 are not up in the air. It’s easy to say Trump’s endorsements didn’t work. But realistically, it’s the candidates that must make their case to voters, no someone that endorses particular candidates. Whether or not Trump runs in 2024, the Republican Part will have many competitive candidates all trying to win the GOP nomination. All the Midterm shows is that Trump looms large more as a lightening rod today, since the vast majority of American voters don’t want to repeat his time in office. It’s ironic that Trump’s time in office was met with a stable economy without runaway inflation and a foreign policy where the U.S. for the first time in years was at peace, not engaged in more senseless foreign war. Yet the public recalls Trump botching the Covid-19 global pandemic, leading to recession.
Republicans, with a decisive registration disadvantage, manage to take back the House, in a stunning turnaround from the 2018 Midterms and 2020 presidential election. It looked after 2020 that the Republican Party was on life-support, never again to enjoy majorities in the House and Senate. Less than two years later, Republicans are poised to take the House and hold their own in the U.S. Senate. Republicans thinking that they’d have dramatic victories in Midterms were deluding themselves, knowing the 20% registration advantage Democrats enjoy. Democrats like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Republicans like Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis could be the real winner in Midterm election, positioning them for a run in 2024. Trump walks away more vulnerable than ever to another presidential run, knowing many MAGA candidates lost. No one can say Republicans didn’t succeed.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
