When 79-year-old President Joe Biden said July 20 that the Pentagon thought House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.), 82 trip to Taipei upcoming trip to Taipei was not a good idea, Congress took notice. Pelosi planned to take a delegation to several Asian countries, including Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan, prompting an angry outburst from Beijing. China’s Foreign Minister Spokesman Zhao Linjian said there would be severe repercussion to U.S.-China relations if Pelosi visits Taipei, the first time since former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (D-Ga.) went in 1997. Lijian said China plans to take “resolute and strong” steps if Pelosi goes ahead with her officials visit to Taiwan. China views Pelosi’s trip as a slap-in-the-face, a repudiation of the One China Policy, part of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act singed by former President Jimmy Carter, agreeing to only one China, the one in Beijing.
Pelosi’s expected trip would not change U.S.-Taiwan policy one bit but Biden complicated the picture May 23 when he said the U.S. would, in fact, defend Taiwan against a Mainland Communist invasion. Since no invasion has taken place since the 1949 Maoist Revolution, there really no reason to change U.S. policy. Carter, in signing the Taiwan Relations Act, ended the 1954 Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty, a treaty that guaranteed Taiwan protection from a Mainland invasion. But when Biden said May 23 that the U.S. would indeed defend Taiwan, everything changed for Chinese President Xi Jinping. Biden got off to a rough start with U.S.-Chinese relations, accusing Beijing of genocide against Muslim Uyghurs in Western China at a summit in Anchorage, Alaska. Biden, his 59-year-old Secretary of State Tony Blinken and 45-year-old National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan insulted Beijing.
Biden, who’s recovering from Omicron variant BA.5, says he plans to talk to Xi Jinping in the next few weeks. It’s doubtful that Xi will tell Joe to tell Nancy it’s OK to lead a Congressional delegation to Taipei. Whatever the purpose of the visit, it doesn’t send the right optics to Beijing. “I’m actually surprised,” said Drew Thomson, visiting senior research fellow at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University in Singapore. “Normally, the Pentagon is all about deterrence and taking non-military steps to demonstrate resolve and demonstrate support to bolster cross-cultureal stability . . . “ said Thomson. Thomson doesn’t get that the Pentagon is busy supplying arms in a proxy war against the Russian Federation in Ukraine, already consuming its resources. If Beijing decided to invade Taiwan, the U.S. would find itself in a two-front war.
Pentagon officials, led by 69-year-old Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, know they’re up to their eyeballs supplying arms-and-cash to Ukraine to battle the Russian Federation. Austin told the world April 26 in Ramstein, Germany, that the purpose the U.S. war in Ukraine was to degrade the Russian military to the point it could no longer wage war. If that’s no a declaration of war, then what is? Austin knows that Biden said one month earlier March 26 in Warsaw, Poland that Russian President Vladimir Putin should not stay in power. So, Biden already finds himself in a quagmire in Ukraine, hoping all the U.S. arms-and-cash can save Ukraine. Battlefield assessments show that over the last five months Ukraine has lost over 25% of its sovereign territory to the Russian Federation. Opening up a new front in Asia would be catastrophic for the Pentagon, already stretched thin in Ukraine.
Pelosi offered a brief response July 21, not saying whether or not she would go ahead with her planned trip to Taipei. “Maybe the military was afraid our plane would get shot down or something like that by the Chinese,” Pelosi said, not saying whether her plans had changed. No one said China would shoot down an official U.S. Congressional delegation. What Lijiain said was there would be consequences to visiting Taipei. Xi has said from some time that Taiwan was part of Mainland China, despite the fact that Beijing allows Taiwan to go about its business without interference. Pelosi’s statement indicates her itinerary will change when she takes her Asian trip in August. “We have to be mindful that the People’s Republic of China has a tendency of overreactions and they hope to use such overreactions as a way to deter countries from engaging in meaningful dialogue with Taiwaan,” said Vincent Chao in Taiwan’s Washington office.
Pentagon officials don’t want to rock-the-boat with U.S.-Chinese relations at a time when Beijing has clearly said it’s close to taking action on Taiwan. Prosecuting the war in Ukraine has preoccupied the Pentagon, not needing to step into any more conflicts. Beijing knows that Biden has committed the Pentagon to a U.S. proxy war in Ukraine, providing unlimited cash-and-weapons to Ukraine to battle the Russian Federation. Xi has let Biden know in the past he has no plans of denouncing 69-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin, going on the record that the U.S. provoked the invasion. Biden’s May 23 statement that he would defend Taiwan from a Mainland invasion violated the U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan. When Biden speaks with Xi, he’ll find out that there’s not much sympathy for the U.S. war in Ukraine, nor much tolerance for U.S. support of Taiwan.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
