Facing a crisis in the Balkans since the Dec. 14, 1995 Dayton Accords that brought an end to the Bosnian civil war that killed over 100,000 Bosnians, Serbs and Croats over a three-year period, including the July 11, 1995 genocide at Srebrenica of 8,372 Bosnian Muslims by Belgrade-based Serbs and Bosnian Serbs. Discovery of the Serbian genocide prompted former President Bill Clinton to start bombing Serbia March 19, 1999 to June 10, 1999. Eventually, Serbian President Slobodan Milosivic surrendered and was charged with war crimes in connection with the Screbrenica massacre, eventually dying March 11, 2006 in custody of the International Criminal Court at the Hague, Netherlands. Milosevic was part of the army of Sprska that perpetrated the Srebrenica massacre. Today’s conflict in Bosnia involves Sprska’s hardline leader Milorad Dodik.
Dayton Accords provided a mechanism for ending the bloody conflict after the fall of Communist Yugoslavia, where all Balkan countries fell under Yugoslavia, until its collapses in 1992, following the fall of the Soviet Union. Under the 1995 Dayton Accords, Bosnia was divided into two regions, (1) the Serb-run Republika Srpska and (2) Bosniak-Croat Fedrations, all with separate presidents, all jointed by joint institutions of a multi-ethnic presidency, parliament, army, top judiciary and tax administration. Sprksa’s conservative leader Milorad Dodik has threatened to break of from the army under the Dayton Accords. “Our appeal to leaders in [Bosnia] . . . is to rise above their own self-interest and to try to keep in mind the broader interest of their country,” said State Department Counselor Derek Chollet. Chollet hopes it’s not too late to deter Dokik from forming his own Sprska army.
Bosnia’s civil war started when Bosnian Serbs tried to join Belgrade to ethnically cleanse the regions of Catholic Croats and Bosnian Muslims also known as ethnic Albanians. Chollet put Dodik on notice that if he continues to breach the Dayton Accords, the U.S. and European Union [EU] would impose stiff sanctions or, worse yet, return U.N. peacekeepers to the region. “If leaders continue on the path toward divisiveness, disintegration, withdrawal from the central institutions, there are tools we have to punish that kind of behavior,” Chollet said, warning Dodik to stand down. State department officials think Russian President Vladimir Putin and Serbian President Aleksander Vucic encourage Dodik to break away from the Dayton Accords. President Joe Biden has created such an antagonist relationship with Putin, the wily Russian leader would do anything to retaliate.
Bosnia’s civil war started after the end of Yugoslavia, where the central government collapsed, leaving the Balkans to revert back to ethnic tribal origins. Josep Broz Tito ruled the Balkans with an iron fist, putting all Balkan tribes and religions under the secular communist rule. Once Tito died May 4, 1980, it was only a matter of time before Yugoslavia came apart at the seams. Once the Soviet Union collapsed Dec. 26, 1991, Yugoslavia went into chaos. Three-years of civil war resulted in 100,000 deaths and two million people driven from their homes in the worst humanitarian crisis since the end of WW II. Many Balkan experts worried that another Balkan civil war could start WW III, following what happened when Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated June 28, 1014 in Sarejevo, starting WW I. So all parties at the U.N. and U.S. worked feverishly for the 1995 Dayton Accords.
Serbian President Aleksander Vucic has close ties to Moscow, complicating the picture for the EU and U.S. State Department. Serbia has been fuming since the U.N.-U.S.-bombed Kosovo in 1999. Once Milosvevic was arrested March 31, 2001, Russia and Serbia have worked to undermine the Dayton Accords, largely because Serbs think the U.S. and U.N. unfairly target Serbia, largely because of its ties to the Kremlin. So when it comes to Putin support Dodik’s Sprska, largely to undermine the Dayton Accords that gave most attention to Muslim-ethnic Albanians. Dodik, with Russian and Serbian approval, has threatened to take over the Bosnian army. Dodik currently serves as the Serb member of Bosnia’s multi-ethnic presidency, giving him leverage over the Bosnian army. Dodik has threatened that if the U.N., EU or U.S. tries to intervene, he’ll call on his Serbian friends for help.
Dodik clearly has gotten too big for his britches, needing to be put on notice before he tries to sabotage the Dayton Accords. Serbs have lingering hostility for the 1999 bombing of Kosovo and arrest and imprisonment of Slobodan Milosevic. “We are very worried,” said Chollet. “There is a lot of attention in Washington about the situation here, a lot of concerns about the trajectory that Bosnia is on and fears, first time in 25 years [the] first time in 28 years., [the] Dayton [peace agreement] is at its most perilous moment,” Chollet said. Whatever happens in Bosnia with Dokik runs through Belgrade and Moscow. If the U.N., EU and U.S. want to save the Dayton Accords, they need to work with Putin who holds great sway in Belgrade. As long as Biden continues to antagonize Putin and turn back the clock on the Cold War, Bonsia and the Dayton Accords will remain unstable.
