France and Germany decided to press for European Union sanctions on Russia for jailing 44-year-old Russian dissident Alexi Navalny. When EU foreign minister meet Feb. 22, the plan on discussing sanctions against key Kremlin officials, restricting passports and freezing assets in EU banks. EU officials didn’t like when 68-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin expelled diplomats from Germany, Poland and Sweden, essentially opening up a new Cold War with Russia. When 78-year-old President Joe Biden took office Jan. 20, his first order of business was chastising Putin for arresting Navalny Jan. 18, convicting him of violating probation and sentencing him Feb. 2 to two-years-eight months in prison. Calling Navalny a “domestic critic,” the EU knows that Navalny runs a cryptic nationwide network seeking to overthrow Putin’s government, hardly a Kremlin critic.
Calling Navalny a “domestic critic” or, like the U.S. calls him, “pro-democracy” activist, is absurd, knowing he’s been working for years to overthrow Putin’s government. U.S. and EU officials can’t figure out what to do with Putin with whom former President Donald Trump got along well. U.S. officials from the deep state connected with the past Obama administration, including current members of Congress, did everything possible to sabotage Trump’s relationship with Putin. Deciding to crack down on Putin could be costly for the EU that buys 40% of its natural gas and 30% of its petroleum from Russia. Germany has been partnering with Russia building the Nordstream 2 pipeline bringing natural gas from Russia to Germany. Former President Donald Trump warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel about letting Germany grow too dependent on Russia for energy.
When it comes to Navalny, it makes zero sense for the U.S. and EU to suddenly start meddling in Russian internal affairs. Navalny may be promoted as an anti-Putin activist in the U.S. and EU, but in Russia he’s a dangerous insurgent that seeks nothing short than toppling Putin’s 20-year reign in Russia. Once Putin expelled diplomats from Germany, Poland and Sweden, the EU decided that it must retaliate at its Feb. 22 foreign ministers’ meeting. Calling Putin out raises fears in NATO countries either bordering or not that far away from Russia, including the Baltic States of Ltthuania, Latvia and Estonia. After Putin’s March 1, 2014 invasion and annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, the Baltic State and Poland thought they’d be Putin’s next target. Trump’s amicable relationship with Putin allayed concerns in Poland and the Baltics, worried about a possible Russian invasion.
Creating a hostile relationship with Putin doesn’t bode well for efforts in the so-called Minsk Protocol, to negotiate a return of Crimea to Ukraine, a country still at war with pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region of Southeastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s 43-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky hoped to gain Putin’s cooperation on resolving any remaining Russian issues in the Donbass region. Sanctioning Putin or members of the Kremlin will only make a bad situation worse for Ukraine and the Baltic States hoping to get more military help from NATO, in the event Putin decides to retake former Soviet satellites. No one has benefited in Europe more than Germany for their long history of natural gas and petroleum sales from Russia. Berlin told Brussels that any sanctions against Russia should not include the $11-billlion Nordstream 2 Pipeline, sponsored by Russia’s state-owned Gazprom.
EU officials walk a tightrope trying to add a new level of sanctions on top of ones already in place from Putin’s March 1, 2014 invasion of Crimea. EU officials know that NATO cannot be counted on to defend EU countries, especially in the Baltics if Putin decides to deploy the Russian army. “The latest developments, especially with regard to Alexi Navalny’s situation, will be fully taken into account. The EU’s response must be unified, strong and comprehensive,” said French Foreign Minister Jean-Ives Le Drian. EU officials are talking tough now but they know the consequences of alienating Putin, who has strong ties to many Eastern European countries, reluctant to take a strong stand on Navalny. EU officials know that Navalny is a Trotskyite revolutionary that seeks nothing short than toppling Putin. What’s Putin supposed to do: Let Navalny start a new Russian revolution?
U.S. and EU officials have condemned Russia for meddling with national elections, including hacking scandals that compromise national security. Navalny’s alleged poisoning last August with banned Soviet-era poison Novichok raises the specter of new Cold War. Sanctioning Putin is likely to drive Putin closer to Iran and North Korea, both pariah states, bound to make more trouble on the world stage. Putin’s well aware of Navalny’s partners in revolution Vladimir Ashurkov and Leonid Volkov who joined a Zoom Conference call Monday with the U.S., Canada and Ukraine to discus how to best sanction Kremlin figures in business, political, judicial and security sectors. When Putin sees the West gang up on the Russian Federation, he takes counter measures with his partners around the globe. With Biden at the helm, U.S.-Russian relations have hit rock bottom, something that helps no one.
