Tilting U.S. foreign policy away from Saudi Arabia and to Iran, 78-year-old President Joe Biden announced today that the U.S. will not longer supply arms-and-cash to fund the Saudi war in Yemen, where Shiite Houthi rebels backed by Iran toppled the Saudi-backed government of Mansur Hadi Sept. 21, 2014, leading to the war backed by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Deviating from the position taken during the Obama administration, Biden now withdraws U.S. support for six-year-old War that’s cost 100,000 lives, at least 12,000 civilians. “The war has to end,” Biden said with 58-year-old Secretary of State Tony Blinken at his side. Biden said he’ll name a peace envoy to Yemen to end the bloodshed, a slap to 35-year-old Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia. Bin Salman has watched Iranian-backed Houthis strike deep inside The Kingdom.
Seeking an end to the Yemen war walks a dangerous tightrope with Iran, who’d like to return to former President Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] or Iranian Nuke Deal, negotiated over two years by 77-year-old former Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran’s 61-year-old Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Trump cancelled the JCPOA May 8, 2018, to gain more leverage on Iran to stop supplying arms-and-cash to the Saudi-Yemen war. Biden sees an opening with Iran who wants to make a deal to return to the JCPOA in exchange for removing U.S. sanctions, while, at the same time, getting Iran’s commitment to stop funding the Houthi insurgency against Saudi Arabia. Ending the war serves all parties concerned as long as Iran is serious about returning to the JCPOA, but, more importantly, stopping the proxy war against Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Iran’s been out of compliance with the JCPOA, enriching uranium at a feverish pace at its underground Natanz and Fordo nuclear sites, putting Iran out of compliance with the JCPOA. Biden sees an opening now with Iran moving back to compliance with the JCPOA in exchange for stopping support of Houthi rebels in Yemen. Trump and his 57-year old Secretary of State Mike Pompeo never got around to any real diplomacy with Iran, leaving the door open to Biden. Zarif said Feb. 2 that there’s a way back to Iran complying with the JCPOA, involving the U.S. ending sanctions and returning back to the July 15, 2015 P5+1 agreement, involving the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany. Iran and Biden have something in common to reopen diplomacy, there abiding contempt of the Trump administration. Biden can use Trump’s tough position on Iran to reopen diplomacy.
Biden’s under more pressure from his advisers to confront Bin Salman over the gruesome Oct. 2, 2018 assassination of 59-year-old former Washington Post contributor Jamal Khanshoggi. Trump resisted pressing Bin Salman largely because he denied having anything to do with Khashoggi’s murder, but, more to the point, because of U.S. security and business ties with The Kingdom. Biden’s willing to play a little hardball with Riyadh in order to resume the JCPOA, getting Iran back into compliance . But if Biden’s efforts do not get Iran to stop funding the Houthi’s proxy war against Saudi Arabia, the high wire diplomacy would backfire, leaving the U.S. alienating Saudi Arabia to placate Iran, a state sponsor of terror in the Middle East. Israel won’t be inclined toward the U.S. making more concessions to Iran, fearing that Iran will continue to work secretly on weapons grade uranium.
Biden and Blinken see the slow moving humanitarian train wreck in Yemen with more that 20 million Yemenis facing starvation, disease and the global coronavirus pandemic making things much worse. U.N. estimates that 233,000 have lost their lives in the six-year-old conflict with Saudi Arabia. U.S.-based Islamic Relief USA says millions suffer from childhood malnutrition, among the world’s most desperate situations. Biden and Blinken in striking any deal with Iran must insist on verification of the JCPOA and, more importantly, an end to supporting the Houthi proxy war against Saudi Arabia. Biden benefits from Iran facing one of the worst recessions and currency devaluations since the 1979 Islamic revolution, when Iran broke off diplomatic relations with the U.S. Iran, under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was a close U.S. ally, working together on cultural and economic development.
Seizing on a crack in diplomacy with Iran, Biden and Blinken look to capitalize on Zarif’s recent offer to go back to the table. Zarif carries the water of Iran’s 81-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who desperately wants an end to Trump’s punitive economic sanctions. Trump put down the hammer with Iran opening the door now for Biden and Blinken to negotiate a return to the JCPOA in exchange for Iran ending its Houthi proxy war in Yemen. Iran never complied fully with intrusive inspections of its uranium enrichment facilities with the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA]. While IAEA said Iran was in compliance, their inspectors never had access to Iran’s secret military facilities. Returning to the JCPOA must include Iran’s willingness to allow IAEA inspectors into Iran’s military uranium enrichment facilities.
