Early voting in Texas looks like its pushing a traditionally GOP state into the toss up category once thought impossible a few years ago. Nonpartisan Cook Political Report indicates that Texas, at least four days before the Nov. 3 election, looks like its within the margin-of-error. When traditional voters go to the polls Tuesday, things could look very different, with the state’s silent majority speaking out on Election Day. Over 90,055,033 voters have already voted, with Democrats accounting for 45.9% to Republicans 30.2% of early voting, giving Democrats on Election Day and big advantage. In Texas alone as of Oct. 28, more than half of registered voters, 8.6 million, have already voted, roughly 85% of the total who voted in 2016, suggesting that Democrats have turned out the vote in record numbers boding poorly for Trump’s chances at a second term, regardless of how Texas goes.
Electoral preferences were already changing in Texas in 2018, when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) barely beat newcomer Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) 51%-48%. Whatever the trends then, the crisis nature the 2020 election leans decisively toward Democrats both at the national and statewide level. Whatever happened in 2016 with 74-year-old President Donald Trump beating 73-year-old former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, the same convergence of factors don’t look like they’re lining up for Trump Whether admitted to or not, trends have been moving away from the Republican Party, a trend that puts Republicans at a distinct disadvantage in 2020. There are currently 33% registered Democrats, 29% registered Republicans and 33% identified as independents. Among independents, those with college degrees lean more Democratic 41% to 30% Republican, also boding poorly for Trump.
When you look at Texas leaning toward toss up, it mirrors a national trend of more minorities leaning heavily Democratic, suggesting that today and future tends make it tough sledding for the Republican Party. In the 2020 vote, it’s largely over the Covid-19 crisis, that looks like it’s gotten worse over time, not, as Trump say, turning some kind of corner. When you add voters concerns about Covid-19, it’s a negative factor driving voters away from Trump in 2020. When you look at Christian evangelical voters, they’ve been losing ground since 2008, down from 79% to 64% in 2020. So expanding numbers of youth and minority voters and drop in Christian evangelicals, also looks unfavorably for Trump on Nov. 3. While Trump appeals for a strong turnout among the so-called “silent majority,” it looks like the once reliable voting block has dwindled over the years.
Whatever the trends leading to a closer election, Texas should wind up in Trump’s corner, leaving other key battleground states to call the 2020 race. Biden finds himself picking up ground on Trump with the youth vote, that’s focused more on environmental issues than the economy. But more than anything, in Texas and around the country, the large voter turnout favors Democrats, since most of newly registered voters identify with liberal causes, especially newcomers who look to the government for economic assistance and health care. Biden and Harris have done a good job with help from the media of demonizing Trump, especially when it comes to health care. Both make the point in the Covid-19 crisis that voters can’t afford to lose their Obamacare while Republicans have no alterative health plan to offer. High voter turnout already shows up favoring Democrats.
Concerns about what happened in 2016 with Hillary isn’t likely to repeat itself in 2020, largely because Covid-19 has dominated the election cycle. Whether it’s factual or not, Trump’s been blamed for the 230,000 U.S. deaths and up-tick in cases happening around the country. Texas is a good crucible for the rest of the country because it’s a populous state with a high immigrant population. If Beto nearly beat Cruz in 2018, it looks like the trends have continued. Biden winning Texas’ 39 Electoral Votes isn’t likely in the 2020 election. While Trump will most likely pull out Texas in 2020, the future looks bright for Democrats. Texas mirrors national trends in youth and minority voting that should put Biden and Harris well over the top on Nov. 3. Trump has been victim of “death-by-a-thousand-cuts,” all coming from a media that favors Biden and Harris by around 95%.
Trump’s demise on Nov. 3 stems from what was known as the “misery index,” once coined in President Jimmy Carter’s years in office [1977-1981]. Back then it was about inflation and unemployment. Today it’s about Covid-19 and unemployment, caused by economic shutdowns, harming a wide variety of small-and-large businesses. Trump sells his heart out on the campaign trail, hoping his large rallies can bail him out. But his followers are not enough to save him this time around with today’s misery index going over the top. It’s not enough to talk about next year’s recovery, when the lion’s share of voters suffer from unemployment and fear over Covid-19. When the votes are finally tallied, Trump lost the election because he couldn’t overcome a U.S. media 95% against him winning another term. No matter how much he tries to change the narrative, the media succeeded demonizing him.
