When the novel coronavirus AKA SARS CoV-2 or Covid-19 swept across the world like wildfire this spring, 74-year-old President Donald Trump hoped that it would behave like the seasonal flu and weaken when the weather heated up. Like so many of Trump’s predictions about the coronavirus, things didn’t quite work out the way he wanted. What’s most ironic is that he’ll probably lose the Nov. 3 election largely due to the virus and its impact on the U.S. economy. With the economy now in a protracted recession due to nationwide shutdowns, Trump’s chance of reelection got a whole lot harder. Trump’s Democrat rival,77-year-old former Vice President Joe Biden, doesn’t even half to show up on the campaign trail or in the debates to watch an election serve as a referendum on Trump, watching the nation’s unemployment rate skyrocket from 3.5% to upward of 15%.
When William Bryan, acting undersecretary for science and technology at the Department of Homeland Security, said April 23 at a coronavirus Task Force press briefing that the virus would probably weaken over the summer, Trump liked what he heard. That was the same briefing where Trump asked State Department infectious disease expert Dr. Deborah Birx whether household disinfectants could be helpful in managing the virus spread. Media jumped all over Trump’s question, insisting her suggested people drink disinfectants. Whatever happened, Bryan was dead wrong about the novel coronavirus showing remarkable resiliency, continuing to infect vast numbers of people over the summer. Princeton post-doctoral fellow Rachel Baker at the Environmental Institute said in the journal “Science” May 15 that virus was not likely affected by warmer weather.
Baker realized that when you have a new virus the public has no immunity, spreading far worse than the season flu, where some percentage of the population has immunity from past exposure or from flu vaccines. Work by several vaccine makers have moved ahead quickly but are still months away, if not longer. “When you have a new virus and the population lacks any immunity to that virus, it’s just going to spread really well, and the climate is not going to matter much,” Baker said. University of Maryland Institute of Human Virology published in “JAMA” in mid-June said warmer weather could affect the viral spread. Dr. Mohammed Sajadi, infectious disease researcher, concluded that the newness of the virus left the population unprotected, infecting large numbers of people without resistance. He also believes that lack of herd immunity causes the virus to infect more people.
Speaking about the transmissibility of the novel coronaviurs, University of Maryland earth science researcher Agustin Vintzileos said the even if climate weakened the virus outdoors, more people are driven inside under the air conditioning during the summer months. Vintzileos pointed out that many studies indicate that the virus spreads more indoors. “What I am saying is that the apex of the climate is much more complicated than we are discussing now.” Vintzileos thinks more people staying indoors during the summer months makes the virus in more transmissible. Sajadi thinks that exterior climate is less important in viral transmissibility than the fact that the population has little immunity to the virus. Sajadi’s a firm believer in wearing face-coverings, social distancing and hand washing to help control the virus from spreading. Countries that take necessary precautions have less SARS CoV-2 cases and deaths.
Researchers point to countries like New Zealand and Australia to show differences in transmission rates than Argentina and South Africa, where cases and death rates are much higher. “So that points to the fact that weather is not everything. The interventions that are undertaken really matter as well,” Sajadi said, explaining why transmission and death rates are different in similar climates. “There’s raging infections in Argentina and South Africa almost none in New Zealand and very few in Australia,” Sajadi said. Following World Health Organization [WHO] and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] guidelines makes all the difference in the world when it comes to reducing the viral spread. U.S. has become the epicenter of the novel coronavirus with 3,671,529 cases and 140,841 deaths today, accounting for 25% of all cases and deaths worldwide.
Whatever the variables, genetically and environmentally, that affect the transmission of coronavirus, U.S. citizens have the tools needed to slow the spread of the virus. Dr. Dara Kass thinks that if citizens follow WHO and CDC guidelines when it comes to wearing masks, social distancing and hand-washing, the transmission rate could be cut dramatically. “What we know is that this is a new virus. So there is not background immunity, but more important, we are spreading the virus among one another actively by not washing hands, not socially distancing and not wearing masks,” Kass said. Kass also believes that, at least for the novel coronavirus, warm climates won’t slow the spread unless the public incorporates safe practices. “If we did these things in the summer, we’d have a far better chance of getting this virus at bay in the winter . . “ Kass said, urging the public to follow WHO and CDC guidelines.
