LOS ANGELES.–Ayatolllah Ali Khamenei, 86, appeared on video for the first time since the 12-day Israeli-Iran war looking frail, claiming victory for the Iranian people. Anyone following the war knows that Iran was pummeled by Israel who had complete control of Iran’s air space, capable to hitting any targets it saw fit. After 12-days of war, it’s questionable whether the Ayatollha knew that his Security Council led by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian threw in the towel and took Trump up on a truce. Khamenei was quoted during the conflict saying he would destroy Israel but the exact opposite happened. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have kept the war going indefinitely, essentially destroying Iran’s military to the point that it could no longer wage war. After Trump’s B-2 and Cruise missile strikes on Iran’ nuke industry, President Donald Trump told Netanyahu it was time to stop.
Iran’s intellectual elite in the Council of Experts, the group that advises Khamenei, have grave concerns about Iran’s leadership, knowing the military losses sustained by Iran in just 12-days of war. All Israel saw was Iran launch ballistic missiles largely at Tel Aviv but also at other Israeli cities, leaving a relatively small amount of damage, but attesting to Iran’s limited war-making capacity. Netanyahu exposed Iran as a paper tiger, all bark but no bite, a fake military, much like that of Iraqi Dictator Saddam Hussein before his government fell April 10, 2003. Saddam had no ballistic missile arsenal but did have a mediocre army and primitive air force, no match for the waves of U.S. military attacks. With a little more time, there’s no doubt that Iran’s military would have collapsed, especially with Netanyahu going after in ballistic missile industry, rocket launchers and stockpiles.
Twelve days to war exposed to Iran’s elite and the world that its vaunted military was nothing more than an illusion, once commanding power through Gaza’s Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Netanyahu dismembered the Ayatollah’s proxy groups over the last year since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas massacre, killing 1,200 Israelis, taking another 251 hostage. When you look at Khamenei now, he’s a shell of his former self, looking feeble and sounding horse in a brief video clip. Anyone in Iran must be asking how long Iran can go without any real leadership, especially after taking a beating from Israel. Netanyahu comes away knowing that war with Iran was not much of a challenge since he controlled the skies with Iran’s air defenses all but knocked out. Questions arise after the war how much the Ayatollah can go on with everyone knowing his weakness?
Khamenei still appears in hiding with his video message showing only curtains and the picture of Islamic Revolution founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei. “If he had been in our sights, we would have taken him out,” said Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz. Before Trump ordered the strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, he asked Netanyahu to refrain from assassinating Khamenei. Sounds like that was more for public consumption with Katz admitting he would have gone after him had they had better intel. “At this time, the regime does not seem to be on the verge of falling but it’s is certainly more vulnerable that it’s has been since the early years after the revolution,” said Thomas Juneau, professor at University of Ottawa. “The authority of the supreme leader therefore certainly been undermined,” Juneau said, especially after 12-days of Israeli bombardments.
Whether admitted to or not, Iran’s elite within the Council of Experts know that Khamenei’s days are numbered. When declaring victory, saying he “slapped the U.S. in the face,” Khamenei doesn’t look like his old self. “It’s clear that he is a diminished figure, no longer authoritative and a shadow of his former self,” said Arash Azizi, Boston University visiting fellow. “Power in Tehran is already passing to different institutions and factions and the battle for his succession will only intensify in the coming period,” Azizi said. Watching Iran’s feeble defense during 12 days of war exposed the military weakness of the Ayatollah’s regime, something now undeniable inside and outside Iran. Khamenei’s days are numbered, just by his advanced age and frail state. World leaders were shocked by Iran’s inability to mount a credible defense against Israel’s air war.
Trump hinted during the 12-day war about regime change but decided to keep the U.S. intervention focused on destroying Iran’s nuclear capability. Why the U.S. fake news jumps to conclusions with facts about the preliminary bomb damage assessment is only pure politics. Democrats don’t want to admit that Trump pulled off a brilliant military intervention to degrade Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites. Listening to CNN and the New York Times dispute the degree of damage to Iran’s nuke sites was for only one purpose: To embarrass Trump. But as the facts have come out, it’s clear that U.S. and Israeli strikes have set Iran’s nuclear enrichment program back years, not months as insisted by partisan Democrats. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) has turned into Democrats chief smoke blower, attacking anything Trump. But Democrats and the fake news also have to accept reality.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
