LOS ANGELES.–Watching his inner circle killed by Israeli air strikes, Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei finds himself in chaos, realizing that Iran’s military was largely a colossal bluff, unable to defend Israel’s conventional attack. Khamenei put all his eggs into one basket, using ballistic missiles and drones to defend his country. Khamenei bears striking similarity to Iraq’s Saddam Hussein who once boasted about weapons of mass destruction when he had none. In the Mideast it’s not uncommon for leaders to huff-and-puff about their military prowess, when in fact they’re prone toward gross hyperbole. Khamenei’s over-reliance on missiles and drones leaves Iran an open target for Israel’s strategic bombing raids, controlling the skies around Iran’s major cities and nuclear sites. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi knows what’s at stake, begging Trump to have Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stop.
Khamenei has total control of his armed services, demanding loyalty as the ultimate test, not competency or honesty to the actual state of military affairs. How any country can let an 86-year-old run the show is anyone’s guess? “He is extremely stubborn but also extremely cautious. He is very cautious. That is why he has been in power for a long as he has,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Washington Middle East Institute think tank. So, when it comes to the Ayatollah’s military brass, they’re all in the same bubble, unable to tell the 86-year-old leader that Israel is destroying their military, leaving Iran defenseless for the foreseeable future. Khamenei thought he could rely only on ballistic missiles and drones to defend Iranian national security. Netanyahu exposed for the world to see that Iran is a paper tiger, with no real advanced military.
Ballistic missiles and drones can only go so far when a conventional air force like Israel operates F-16s and F-35 fighter jets with precision bombing missions. Khamenei relies on a loyal coterie of yes-men, all of whom tell him what he wants to hear, even now while Israel destroys his defense capability. When it comes to Khamenei’s successor, only his son Mojtaba faces real changes having been responsible for Iran’s incompetent defenses. Even Al Asghar Hejazi, deputy of security affair in Khamenei’s office, is to blame for Iran’s failed defenses, leaving the country vulnerable to an Israeli attack. Whatever Khamenei already lost in top military leadership, it wouldn’t make a difference because they’ve all been in the same bubble, putting all their eggs into the ballistic missile basket, and, defying explanation, leaving Iran vulnerable to Israeli air strikes.
Trump expressed frustration with the Iranian regime for not entering into a new nuke deal that could have avoid today’s war. Trump said Iran knows how to reach him if they want to talk about ending the conflict or new nuke talks. Five rounds of nuke talks was enough for Trump after giving Khamenei a 60-day window to make a new deal. Trump once demanded that Iran stop its nuclear enrichment program completely but his envoy Steve Witkoff worked about a deal with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to let the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] to supervise Iran’s enrichment program, selling its nuclear stockpile to the United States. So, Witkoff had an advanced plan worked out with Araghchi to avoid war with Israel or the United States. Trump expressed frustration that so many live could have been saved if Iran took the nuke talks seriously.
Nothing is changing in the Ayatollah’s regime, except the same old mistakes, all too late to save his mullah government. If Netayahu continues his air strikes, it’s only a matter of time before the regime collapses. Trump already told Tehran residents to get out of town before it’s too late. He recently told the Ayatollah to unconditionally surrender to stop the current bombing campaign. Trump officials would like nothing more that to liberate Iran from 45-years of repressive mullah rule. Young Iranians all crave the kind of freedom the only heard about in a distant past when the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi ruled Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran isn’t likely to surrender but the population of Iran could point to the Ayatollah’s incompetence as proof that regime change was necessary. Only time will tell if the resistance rises up.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei brought his regime down with his anti-Semitic bile, hosting Holocaust denial conferences and calling for Israel to be wiped off the map. When it came to Iran’s uranium enrichment program, Netanyahu took no chances, despite intel suggesting that Iran does not have an active A-bomb program. Netanyahu considered Iran’s uranium enrichment program an existential threat to the Jewish State. Trump agreed with Netanyahu that Israel could not take a chance on Iran’s building a future A-bomb. Vowing to never let Ayatollah to get an A-bomb, Trump has backed Netanyahu’s policy and could join the war at any time. Ayatollah Khamenei chose to threaten Israel with his proxy Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi proxy forces, waging proxy war against Jerusalem for years. Whatever the Ayatollah gets now is entirely of his own making.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.