LOS ANGELES.–Nationalist eurosceptic politician Karol Nawrocki, 42, won the Polish presidency by a small margin in a stunning rebuke of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s EU friendly government. Nawrocki beat Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski who would have followed Tusk’s close ties the EU. Nawrocki got the backing of the Nationalist opposition party Law and Justicc [PiS], capitalized on weariness from the Ukraine War that flooded Poland with refugees from the war torn countries. Judging how today’s peace talks went in Istanbul, the war could be around for a long time, tapping into nationalistic sentiment by Poles unwilling to keep carrying the brunt of accommodations to Ukraine’s war with the Kremlin. Nawroki’s foreign policy parallels that of Hungary’s Viktor Orban who wants to continue as part of the EU as long as it doesn’t force him to take Ukrainian refugees. Orban has been a vocal backer of President Donald Trump, believing he’s the only one who could end the Ukraine War.
When you look at today’s talks in Istanbul, the two sides are light-years apart when it comes to the concessions needed to end the over three-year conflict. Nawrocki pledges he would sign a declaration he would not back Ukraine’s entrance into NATO, a fore-drawn conclusion since it’s the same position of Orban. Since NATO membership requires unanimous membership of all 32 countries, Zelensky just got another blow to his aspiration to join NATO. Zelensky congratulated Nawrocki but knows where the new Polish president stands on the Ukraine War and future of NATO membership. Zelensky hasn’t given up on joining NATO or the EU anything that could provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin. “The choice of the Poles will most likely complicate the dialogue with the EU and out European integration,” said Ukrainian lawmaker Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsaze.
Nawrocki’s victory throws a monkey wrench into Brussels attempt to dominate Polish politics, getting Poland to back ongoing war with Russia. Voters rejected what they saw as EU overreach into Polish politics. “Yes, we want a common market, we want development, we want to be a strong voice in the European Union, but we do not want our freedom in the entire scope of social life to be decided by the Brussels’ elites,” Nawrocki said. How ironic that Nawrocki watches intently for events in Istanbul knowing there’s little chance of Trump’s agenda prevailing for the time being. EU meddling into the peace process has cost Ukraine dearly, keeping the death, destruction and refugee crisis going for the foreseeable future. Nawrocki backs Trump attempts to bring peace to Ukraine.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban praised Nawrocki’s victory, putting brakes on the more liberal tendencies of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Nawrocki now has veto power over any of parliament’s pro-EU policies. “Of course it [the election result] will mean a lot to the prime minister of Poland, who now instead of being a very strong force in the EU will be more marginalized,” said a European diplomat. Orban called it a “fantastic victory” giving pro-EU voices in Poland and central Europe reason to pause. “This is definitely emboldening for . . . all pro-Trumpist or pro-MAGA eurosceptics,” said Botond Feledy, a geopolitical analyst at Red Snow Consulting, giving more support to identity politics than the common market. While Democrats and the EU fight Trump tooth-and-nail in the U.S. and Brussels, Trump still has a following in Poland and Hungary.
Today’s stalemate in Istanbul shows that both sides have dug in with no ceasefire and peace talks now in sight. Trump can no longer blame Putin after Zelensky pulled off his drone attack on Russia’s stockpile of strategic bombers in various military bases. What did Zelensky think would happen to peace talks too buy pounding his chest about destroying Russia’s stragetic bomber fleet? How many planes were really disabled in the operation is anyone’s guess. Russia barely mentioned it on its national state run TV network. Trump was frustrated with Putin last week when he went ahead with drone and missile attacks when Trump thought Putin and Zelensky took peace talks seriously. Judging by today’s attacks deep inside Russia, Zelensky is a long way from conceding anything especially on sovereign territory lost to Russia over the last three years of war.
Nawrocki’s victory shows Poland’s fierce independent streak, not rubber stamping all the foreign policy coming out of Brussels. Nawrocki would have liked to see more progress toward peace in Ukraine but knows Germany, France and the U.K. resist any concessions to Putin. Putin gave his memorandum to Ukrainian officials, promptly rejected as expected by Zelensky and the EU, showing differences between the EU and Poland. Nawrocki is far more aligned with Trump’s peace proposals calling for Zelensky to trade land for peace to finally end the worst war on the European Continent since WW II. Whether there’s infighting with Poland’s new government, Poland sent a message to Brussels that it won’t be pushed around. Nawrocki will no doubt be invited in short order to White House state visit. Trump needs all the allies he can get to end the war.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.