LOS ANGELES.–Exchanging military fire from a Pakistan terror attack in Punjab that killed 26 Indian tourists, India and Pakistan traded military fire, knowing that the skirmish is nothing more than the latest exchange of hostility between neighbors.  India still reels from Pakistan’s independence fought in 1947 over Pakistan’s largely Shiite Isam population over India’s Hidu majority.  Saying a number of military targets were hit including Pakistan’s Lahore, Rawalpindi and near Karachi, India claims to have neutralized a Pakistan terrorist threat that killed 26 Indian tourists Indian-controlled Kashmir. India’s Ministry of Defense said they neutralized Pakistan’s strikes in northern India, including Kashmir.  Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi conferred with his security Cabinet, saying that Pakistan’s recent drone strikes have been effectively fended off by air defenses.

            Yesterday’s strikes were the most intense confrontation since the 1971 Indian-Pakistan War where Pakistan eventually surrendered in east Dhaka where India helped established and independent Bangladesh from Pakistan. Today’s skirmishes aren’t likely to morph into anything more than a retaliatory action by India from the recent tourist massacre in Kashmir.  Pakistan claims to have shot down five Indian jets with its Chinese made jet fighters.  Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said he could not confirm reports of Indian military loses but would report on any losses at some future date.  Retaliating against Pakistan, New Delhi asks the International Monetary Fund [IMF] to put a freeze on further lending to Pakistan.  “I think the case with regard to Pakistan should be self-evident to those  people who generously open their pockets to bail out this country,” said Misri.

            India’s Ministry of Defense said it “targeted air defense radars and systems at a number of locations in Pakistan.”  India’s response “has been in the same domain with the same intensity as Pakistan,” the Indian Defense Ministry said.  Cross border attacks killed 16 people, prompting India to stop all civilian flights into Pakistan. Pakistan watched its KSW-30 index drop 7.3% where India’s Nifty 50 Index only showed a 0.6% drop.  India’s GDP is over ten times the size of Pakistan at $337 billion compared with India a $5.68 trillion. So, Pakistan knows it’s not on the same economic level as India, prompting a lot of bravado but, in the end, Islamabad wants no part of any long-term conflict with India.  Dealing with periodic skirmishes with Pakistan, Modi knows that Islamadad wants to part of any war with India.  India’s External Affairs Minsiter Subrahmanyam Jaisankar said he wants no escalation.

            Global news panics when skirmishes between India and Pakistan takes places, knowing they’re both nuclear armed nations. But with Pakistan’s economy struggling in unstable global times, there’s no way Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz wants to commit more resources to war with India.  “International investors undoubtedly evaluate geopolitical risk into their assessment of India, contributing to the rupee’s underperformance in recent weeks,” Samsara Wang, Asian sovereign analyst at PineBridge Global. “That said conflicts between India and Pakistan have not had last effect on Indian financial assets, and the impact is likely to be limited and temporary,” noting differences in the sizes of the two economies. Pakistan has a lot more to lose in any prolonged military campaign, pushing both countries to back off the bravado after making largely symbolic statements.

            President Donald Trump wasn’t too concerned, calling the recent cross-border attacks “tit-for-tat.”  “They’ve gone tit-for-tat, so hopefully they can stop now,” Trump said today.  “We get along with both the countries very well, good relationships with both, and I want to see it stop.  And if I can do anything to help, I will be there,” Trump said, not too concerned about the prospects for escalation into a larger conflict.  Pakistan always responds to India’s provocations, not because they think they have the firepower to continue an ongoing conflict but a matter of national pride. Carved out of India, Pakistan takes pride in its Shiite Muslim roots and 1947 war of independence from India.  Modi has many Shiites still living in Pakistan, taking a tolerant approach in India’s many religions.  India still reflects British colonial traditions for a pluralistic society built on human rights.

            India and Pakistan’s recent skirmish is likely to fizzle out without any wider escalation, knowing that both countries have bigger fish to fry.  Neither wants to be bogged down in a go-nowhere conflict over occasional mishaps that happen on both sides of the border.  Pakistan still deals with Islamist terrorist elements, largely Sunni-driven Taliban terrorists still finding safe haven in Pakistan.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he spoke with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and emphasized the need for stability in the region.  India and Pakistan recall the massacre in 2019 when Pakistani terrorist killed 40 of India’s Security Forces.  Neither country wants a repeat of the 1971 thirteen-week war that cost both countries in terms of cash-and-human life.  As things look now, the recent skirmish has died down and doesn’t look like his going to spread any further.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.