LOS ANGELES.–President Donald Trump, 78, seized on the chance to negotiate a new Iranian Nuke Deal, something he rejected from former President Barack Obama May 8, 2018.  Trump invalidated the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] largely because the prior agreement was unenforceable with Iran refusing to admit U.N. inspectors into its military sites where the bulk of Uranium enrichment took place.  Negotiated by Obama and former Secretary of State John Kerry with his Iranian counterpart, former Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, the JCPOA was supposed to stop Iran from working on a nuclear bomb by slowing down uranium production.  Trump rejected Obama’s plan when Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei started handing cash-and-arms to Yemen’s Houthi rebels to attack Saud Arabia, bombing Riyadh’s International Airport.

            Trump watched while Obama handed over some $16 billion in frozen Iranian assets and another $150 billion in sanctions relief.  When Trump saw the Ayatollah at war with Saudi Arabia through his Yemen proxies that was the last straw before cancelling the agreement.  Whatever Iran’s breakout time for building a nuclear bomb, Trump wants a new agreement that goes beyond the original JCPOA but offers new conditions for Iran’s uranium enrichment program.  Trump likes the idea of Iran continuing to enrich uranium then turning over the enriched material for use in zero-emission nuclear reactors.  However the new agreement emerges, Ayatollah has determined that it’s better than the alternative to Trump ordering the bombing of Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites.   Former Iranian nuke negotiator Dennis Ross said the new agreement would have to do more than the 2015 version.

            Under terms to the new nuke deal, Iran would be required to sell its 60% uranium material to the United States for the purpose of using it in new generations of carbon-free nuclear electricity reactors.  Ross thinks that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure should be dismantled, much the way Libyan Col. Muhammer Gaddafi was forced to dismantle his nuclear reactor Dec. 19, 2003.  But Trump has a far better idea what to do with all of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles, to package it as reactor fuel and sell it to the United States.  “Anything less would leave threshold of threat intact,” Ross said, urging Trump to dismantle the Ayatollah’s 20,000 high speed centrifuges.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Iran to go “zero enrichment,” something beyond the old JCPOA at 3.67%.  But Trump has a point, why not let Iran enrich reactor fuel packaged for reactor fuel?

            Iran’s nuclear enrichment industry has moved to more advance reactors spinning Yellocake to 60% or beyond, completely in violation of the original JCPOA that only permitted Iran to enrich to 3.67%.  Once Trump cancelled the deal, the Ayatollah gave the green light to continue enriching fuel close to weapons grade.  Iran’s Ayatollah has denied that Iran seeks a nuclear bomb, something U.S. nuclear experts doubt.  But whatever the situation, in a new nuke deal Trump can control whether Iran turns over its fuel for payment to the U.S. or shuts off its centrifuges altogether.  “The Iranians, if they were smart, they would settle for much longer sunset clauses going into the future,” said Alex Vatanka, senior fellow and director at Mideast Est Institute in Washington.  Sunset clauses would allow Iran to shut down uranium enrichment for longer periods of time.

            Selling enriched uranium to the United States would be the best outcome for all parties.  Whether admitted to or not, it’s a real technological feat to enrich uranium for reactor fuel or medical isotopes, so why not make good use of Iran’s expertise, rather that demanding they shut down a viable industry. “Essentially, the negotiations are shaping up into as JCPOA2,” forcing Trump to negotiate something unique.  Trump could demand that to keep Iran’s nuclear fuel production, it could agree to restrict its development of ballistic missiles, capable of delivering nuclear war heads over long distances.  Addressing the missile issue, Trump can claim that his new JCPOA goes beyond anything Obama negotiated in 2015.  Ayatollah is in no position to reject all of Trump’s proposals, knowing that his once dangerous proxy groups have been all-but-neutralized in the last year.

            Ayatollah Khamenei cannot afford any military action given the mullah regime’s tenuous hold on a restive youthful population looking to get away from theocratic rule.  So, unlike 2015, when the Ayatollah was invested in funding-and-arming Gaza’s Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, he no longer has the same clout he once had.  “This is an historic window for Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear sites,” said an unnamed Mideast official.  Yet Trump isn’t inclined to use the military except as a last resort.  Trump prefers to cut a deal the benefits Iran and the U.S., the best scenario would include Iran packages nuclear reactor fuel for use in the new generation of small modular nuclear reactors.  Trump’s on the right tract trying to make deals with foreign adversaries, not using the military unless a last resort.  Ayatollah looks like he wants to cut a deal.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.