LOS ANGELES.–Russian President Vladimir Putin, 72, looks poised to sign a ceasefire and peace deal that requires Ukraine to cede Crimea and parts of Donbass including Kherson, Zaporizhizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk, all Russian speaking territories no longer wanting any part of the Kiev government. Putin was waiting until his army pushed Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region where they invaded Aug. 6, 2024, trying divert the Russian army from the 1,000 km front where Russia has made steady progress seizing Ukrainian territory over three years of war. President Donald Trump, 78, tried to reason with Ukraine’s 47-year-old President Volodymyr that the war continues to destroy Ukraine’s infrastructure, killing more civilians and losing more sovereign territory. Zelensky was hung up on the idea of sovereignty, saying he could not surrender Crimea to Russia.
Crimea has been in Russian hands since March 1, 2014, when pro-Western rebels ousted the Kremlin-backed Kiev government of Viktor Yanukovych. Once Putin saw Yanukovych driven from Kiev, he realized his naval and air base in Crimea was threatened by pro-Western forces. Putin annexed Crimea because the Ukraine regime did not deal with Putin, offering him a 99-year lease on his naval and air base in Crimea. “Essentially, Ukraine traded territory its values the most—its own—for territory it didn’t value and that it couldn’t hold forever,” said Christophers McCallion, a fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank. Zelensky claimed that his Kursk incursion diverted Russian attention away from the main front but now deals with ending the Aug. 6, 2024 Ukrainian invasion. Zelensky thought holding Russian territory would help his bargaining position.
Trump wants Zelensky in any peace deal to have full control of Kharkiv, while Russia takes control of Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhazhia, Donetsk and Luhansk. Zelensky’s EU backers like German and France, think that Trump has offered Putin too much in territorial concessions. Yet Germany and France are not involved in the detailed ceasefire and peace discussions ongoing with Putin and Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. Monday morning quarterbacking is far easier for the EU that shows sympathy to Zelensky but knows that Brussels is not prepared to pick up the costs of war with the Kremlin if Trump’s peace talks fail. Accusing Trump of giving away the store to Putin is preposterous because Germany and France have no clue what it takes to get a peace deal with Putin. Zelensky opted for war with the Kremlin and now must pay the price to get peace.
Whatever losses Ukraine suffered to hold on to Kursk, it’s evident to military experts, like the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War [ISW] that Zelensky has depleted his army to the point that they cannot continue the same offensive undertaken in the first two years of war. Putin asked North Korean President Kim Jong-un for troops and artillery, battling Ukrainian forces until only recently pushing them out of Russian territory. Zelensky called Putin’s reliance on North Korean troops a major escalation in the war, calling on his allies to supply troops on the Ukrainian side. Not one of Zelensky’s allies in the EU or NATO contributed any troops but said, in a post-war scenario, they would provide security forces to help maintain the peace. EU and U.K. don’t have any clue whether or not Putin would accept EU or NATO forces on Ukrainian soil.
Russia and Ukraine claim that both sides have suffered mass casualties just in the Kursk region alone, something Zelensky thought would give him leverage in peace talks. “There were probably some very embarrassed Russian general but it was a completely haywire incursion on the part of the Ukrainians—it was just mental frankly,” said David J. Betz, professor of war in the modern world at King’s College London. Betz said Russian has been using fiber optic drones more capable to eluding Ukraine’s air defenses, reducing Ukraine’s footprint from 1,400 square miles to 428. Russia’s chief general Valery Gerasimov told Putin that Ukraine troops have been all but cleared from the Kursk region. Ukraine at one time at some 60,000 troops in Kursk, eventually losing their hold the territory. Putin feels more inclined now to pursue ceasefire and peace talks with Ukraine out of Russia.
Zelensky clearly, as Trump said, made a bad mistake going to war with the Kremlin. He was told by Biden that the U.S. would supply the arms and foot the bill to his government and the war, only to watch his country decimated over the last three years. When Trump told Zelensky he had “no cards” in his Feb. 28 oval office meeting, Zelensky went ballistic, taking months to realize his dwindling options. With all the sympathy he gets from the European Union, Zelensky found out that Brussels is not interested in funding proxy war with the Kremlin. That was Biden’s war with Moscow, not the EU’s war. So, Zelensky now realizes that he has only Trump to extricate him from the mess he created in Ukraine. Zelensky could have struck a deal with Putin in March 2020 to end the conflict. But with Biden’s blank check, Zelensky believed his own delusions about vanquishing Russia.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
