LOS ANGELES.–Former Vice President Kamala Harris, 60, has a big decision to make with national polls showing that she still looks competitive at this point with Democrats looking at the 2028 presidential election. According to a new Morning Consult poll Kamala polls at 36% to represent the Democrat Party in 2028. Kamala’s closest rival on the poll is former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg polling at 10%, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom at 5%. Kamala’s big lead has to weigh in her decision about potentially running to replace Newsom as California governor, knowing that move, whether she wins-or-loses, closes the door on her running in 2028. Many political strategists see the California’s governor’s race a low hanging fruit for Kamala, knowing she’s a virtual lock to replace Newsom if she chooses to.
Running for president against Trump could be looked at in two ways by Kamala. Realizing the Trump was a once-in-a-lifetime candidate for the Republican Party, with another comparable candidate not waiting in the wings. Some Democrat donors wonder whether Kamala could mount another billion dollar-plus race in 2028, knowing she didn’t run in any of the Democrat primaries. Kamala got the bid from Democrat Party bosses who didn’t want a floor fight at the Democratic National Convention. She ran for president in the Democrat primaries in 2019, dropping out early when she polled under 5%. Whether that happens again is anyone’s guess. But based on today’s Morning Consult poll she’s the prohibitive favorite, preferred by 36% of respondents, with Buttigieg running at 10%. Surprising that Calif. Gov. Newsom only runs at at about 5%.
Kamala can’t have in both ways, running to Calif. governor in 2026, then deciding less than two years later to run for president in 2028. Press reports indicate that Kamala won’t make any decision until Labor Day, irking former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, throwing him off on his future plans. Other possible governor candidates like Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) has said that if Kamala runs she would reconsider her plans. Whether Villaraigosa feels that way is anyone’s guess but recent polls show Kamala an overwhelming favorite to replace Newsom. Kamala knows there’s a big difference serving as Vice President for four years then running for president than accepting the Calif. governor’s job. Serving a full term in off would put Kamala at 68-years old in 2032, still young enough to run again. But it’s all pure speculation what polls say now about 2028.
If Kamala’s wants a sure thing, that’s never really 100% certain, she’ll opt for Calif. governor knowing it’s her best bet for another job. With California the nation’s most progressive state, she’d fit right in to current trends in the Democrat party where progressive seem to have dominated the party base. Watching Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez draw crowds in the thousands on their anti-oligarchy tour show the direction the party is going. Kamala fits right into the progressive politics in Calif. but not necessarily on a national scale. So, if you had to make a guess, Kamala will run in 2026 for Calif. governor. Whatever happens in 2028, it’s way too early to make any forecasts. Imagine that Calif. Gavin Newsom already started a podcast interviewing conservative voices, among others, to pivot toward the center with his 5% approval ratings.
Former Presidnt Bill Clinton’s strategist 80-year-old James Carville says Democrats are on the wrong track with progressive politics. He warned Kamala and others in the 2024 to pivot to the center, something he advised Clinton to do in 1992 when he urged Clinton to run on welfare reform, not something popular among Democrats. When you look at who attended the last Democratic National Convention in Chicago, it looks like a civil and gender rights convention. Trump has deliberately used fringe civil rights and gender rights issues. So, the optics of Democrats showed independent voters that the party had moved so far to the left, it abandoned the party’s center. Whether Carville admits it or not, today’s progressive party is not the same party as Clinton’s but a more specialized party designed to fulfill the agenda of various racial and ethnic minorities.
Whatever Kamala decides by Labor Day, it’s not to gamble with her future, knowing her track record in 2020 and 2024. Running for the presidency taught her some valuable lessons especially that she can no longer run as a moderate candidate. When 2028 rolls around, the Democrat Party will be dominated by progressive politics, much the same as 2024 but to more extremes. Trump has created an uproar among African Americans and various LGBTQ-plus groups feeling deliberately excluded by Trump’s politics. Kamala knows anyway she turns there are no guarantees other than what the polls show. Running against Trump in 2024 has given her a certain cachet for going up against one of the most icon figures in GOP politics. Democrat Calif. voters would happily pay Kamala off for coming back home to manage her states many financial and social problems.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
