LOS ANGELES.–Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 70, boasted about his support for Hayat Tahir al-Sham [HTS] the terror group that seized the Syrian northern city of Aleppo, signaling more problems for 59-year-old Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Assad had recaptured some northern territory from rebels backed by Turkey and the United States in 2015 with the help of Russian and Iranian forces. With Iran bogged down with Israel, defending Hamas and Hezbollah, and Russia mired in Ukraine, al-Assad may not be as lucky this time around. HTS leader Mohammed Abu al-Jolani, once head of the al-Qaeda affiliate the Jabhat al-Nusra Front, now leads a collection or rebels groups seeking to topple al-Assad’s Damascus regime. Former President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden spent billions supporting rebel groups to topple al-Assad from 2011 to 20017.
When 72-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin intervened to defend al-Assad in 2015, Obama and Biden’s proxy war fizzled but not before killing 500,000 Syrians, driving 12 million into exile in Turkey and Europe, and practically breaking the European Union. Syria’s civil war, fueled by Turkey and the United States, was responsible to U.K. leaving the European Union [Brexit] in 2016, with more Mideast immigrants flooding the U.K. Now al-Jolani has the backing of Erdogan to continue moving on to Damascus to finally end al-Assad’s regime. “As of now Idlib, Hama, Homs and the target is of course Damascus. This march of the opposition continues . . . Our wish is this march in Syria will continue without any accidents and troubles,” Erdogan told reporters in Instanbul. So, without any hesitation, Erdogan admits that his proxy war against al-Assad continues in full force.
Unlike the U.S. that got bogged down in Ukraine, Erdogan keep funding proxy groups in Syria with the intent to taking over Syria. While Al-Jolani enjoys his takeover of Aleppo, Russia, Iran and Turkey meet in Doha, Qatar to determine the fate of al-Assad’s regime. Erdogan played his cards close to the vest supporting the al-Jolani’s slow but methodical takeover of northern Syria, much the same way Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s ISIS did in 2014, turning Aleppo into a major hub for his self-declared Islamic caliphate. Unlike al-Jolani, al-Baghadi saw himself as the leader of all Muslims, seeking recognition from the Grand Mufti in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Al-Jolani is content to lead a non-sectarian rebel force to topple al-Assad’s regime, of course following Sunni Muslim rule against al-Assad’s heavily Shiite regime in Damascus.
Al-Jolani calls his rebel group the Organization for the Liberation of Greater Syria when it seized Aleppo and other northern Syrian towns in an effort for force al-Asad out of Damascus. “We succeeded in breaking the first line and then the second and the third,” said Gen. Ahmed Hornsi, coordinating the HTS rebel offensive in Syria. “We hit positions of the leadership and succeeded in cutting off communications between them and their troops. That created big chaos for them. It was a big psychological defeat,” Hornsi said, acting like al-Assad’s Baathist army has retreated. Al-Jolani pretends that he’s not a radical Sunni fanatic only out to liberate Syria from Bashar al-Assad’s tyrannical rule of Syria. Al-Jolani’s deep roots in al-Qaeda are quietly disguised with his attempt to placate the U.S. and Turkey to back his efforts to liberate the Mideast from secular Tyrants.
During the 2011Arab Spring that toppled Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Libya’s Col. Muammar Gaddafi, various terrorist groups seized the opportunity to turn Mideast secular regimes into Islamic caliphates. “The group has completely turned away from having any kind of global agenda. It has turned national,” said Charles Lister, director of the Syria program at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington. Lister says nothing about the funding from Erdogan. “But unquestionably, the group retains very conservative religious foundations,” Lister said, admitting that it’s rapped itself up in freedom fighting when its real goal is another Sunni Islamic state in Damascus. With Iran and Hezbollah bogged down fighting Israel, it’s unclear whether al-Assad can count on his past allies, including Russia, to come rescue his regime this time around.
Al-Assad’s Baathist Shiite regime, once allied closely with Saddam Hussein in Iran, finds himself, at least for now, in an existential battle with Turkey-backed HTS. Erdogan stands to be the big winner with the new regime loyal to Turkey, ready to profess its allegiance to Erdogan. Biden’s reckless, costly and destructive proxy war in Ukraine has left the U.S. useless in having any outcome in Syria, despite the fact that its wants al-Assad out of Damascus. Putin finds himself battling to get his land back in the Kursk border region while fighting a grinding war in Ukraine, essentially now a stalemate. Whatever the pretence of HTS backing Christians in Aleppo or elsewhere, Erdogan seizes the chance to conquer al-Assad’s Shiite regime in Damascus. If there’s no help from Putin, al-Assad could find himself moving to Saudi Arabia in pretty short order.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
