LOS ANGELES.–Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi, 73, plans to visit 46-year-old Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky in Kiev Friday, Aug. 25, to discuss any common ground for the two economies. Modi had met with 71-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin July 8-9 on an official visit to the Kremlin. Since the Ukraine War, India has remained neutral, refusing to join 81-year-old President Joe Biden’s coalition to sanction the Kremlin for invading Ukraine Feb. 24, 2022. U.S., NATO and European Union [EU] see Modi has bailing Putin out by increasing India’s oil purchases from Russia, now about 40% of New Delhi’s oil supply. Modi has made his position clear on the Ukraine War, he would like it to end through some kind of peace process, something Zelensky has refused to do. It’s possible Modi will encourage Zelensky to move the conflict to the peace table.
Visiting Zelensky, Modi hopes to promote his statesmanship, knowing that, to many Western countries, he looks like he takes Putin’s side. But any look at the historical record knows that India was aligned with the Soviet Union, buying much of its arms from Moscow. Visiting Zelensky in Kiev does little to change India’s historic ties to Russia, especially now that India and China are two of Russia’s biggest crude oil customers. India and China buys Russian oil below market prices from Putin, averaging at under $60 a barrel, when the market pays around $80 a barrel. Modia has no intent of joining any Russian oil embargo or any other sanctions against the Russian Federation. Meeting with Zelensky helps Modi look more evenhanded on the world stage. Modi wants to let world leaders know that India is a nonaligned nation, refusing to take sides.
Modi last met with Putin when NATO leaders met in Washington Jul 8 for the 75th anniversary of the Trans-Atlantic partnership, started after WW II. Zelensky called Modi’s meeting with Putin a “huge disappointment” and “devastating blow to peace efforts,” condemning Modi’s visit the Kremlin. “This is not a zero-sum game . . . these are independent broad ties,” said Secretary [West] Tanmaya Lai last week. Western pressure hasn’t phased Modi who, like China, has its historic relations with Russia that won’t change because of public criticism. New Delhi considers Russia a long-term trading partner and ally, but not in any military alliance. Chinese President Xi Jinping has talked recently about joining an economic, military and strategic alliance with the Russian Federation. Modi wants to continue India’s nonaligned status when dealing with the West and Russia.
Modi’s vist to Kiev won’t change his historic business ties to the Kremlin, especially its prodigious oil purchases, after the West announced soon after the Ukraine War a Russian oil embargo. Biden’s Russian oil embargo created an oil shock in the United and overseas, fueling the worst inflation in the U.S. in over 40 years. No one in the Biden White House admits what the main driver of inflation was, pretending it’s caused by corporate price gouging. “Modi’s visit is designed to some extent to show that New Dehli’s strategic orientation remains non-alignment and as such, to keep balance in its foreign policy,” said Derek Grossman, an Indo-Pacific analyst at Rand Corporation. India buys about 60% of its military hardware from Russia and, since the Feb. 24, 2022 Ukraine War, over 40% of its petroleum imports. No country gives India and China a better deal than Russia.
Modi hopes to present himself to Zelensky as a neutral peacemaker but not someone who would try to broker a peace deal for Kiev and Moscow. Modi hopes “to engage Zelensky and secure Indian interest there, push back against Russian overreach and placate the West,” Grossman said. “Modi’s visit will not change this perception,” said Chietigi Bajpaee, a South Asian researcher at Chatham House think tank. Zelensky knows that he won’t change Modi’s mind about his relationship with Moscow, only see if there’s some common ground to expand business ties between the two countries. “Indian behavior . . . has been to try to stay out of resolving it, and to only occasionally comment against further aggression,” Grossman said, saying that unlike China and Turkey, hasn’t offered any peace plan. Modi prefers to keep his visit to Kiev all business.
When Biden decided to fund Ukraine war against the Kremlin, he all but killed decades of diplomacy, détente and arms control with Russia. Modi learned well from Biden not to take sides in resolving the border dispute between Russia and Ukraine, or getting into the reasons behind Putin’s Special Military Operation. Chinese President Xi Jinping didn’t hesitate to weigh in blaming Biden for encroaching on Russian national security supplying unlimited lethal arms to Ukraine. Modi hasn’t gone that far but it’s clear he understands where Putin is coming from. Kremlin officials will no doubt pay attention to Modi’s visit to Kiev “but short of any statements that are highly critical of Russia, it is unlikely to be concerned,” said Chatham House’s Bajpaee. Modi’s visit shows the world that he’s a statesman ready to do anything possible to advance the cause of world peace.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
