LOS ANGELES.–Former chief strategist of 77-year-old President George W. Bush, 73-year-old Karl Rove says 78-year-old President Donald Trump has lost ground to 81-year-old President Joe Biden since he was convicted May 30 of 34 felonies for falsifying business records in paying off Stormy Daniels in 2016. No one, including legal scholars like Harvard emeritus Prof. Alan Desrshowitz, can figure out what crime Trump broke, making the conviction in District Atty. Alvin Bragg look all the more political. Yet Rove thinks Trump’s convictions reversed a trend with independent voters, the voting bloc that will decided the 2024 presidency. “Take a look at the evidence,” Rove said. Rove contends that Trump’s polls started heading south once he was convicted in Manhattan court. Whatever the minute movements in the aggregate polling, Trump still leads Biden nationally.
Rove takes credit for Bush’s dubious win over former Vice President Al Gore in the 2000 election, where the outcome was decided in the Supreme Court when they ended challenges to the vote count. Gore was a vulnerable candidate for several reasons in 2000, not least of which because of his awkward social skills. More professor-like than presidential candidate, Gore supposedly had all the facts-and-figures and was supposed wipe out Bush in presidential debates. When that didn’t happen, Gore’s stock with independent voters went down, handing a close election to Bush. Gore also followed former President Bill Clinton, whose Monica Lewinsky affair dominated the headlines in 1998. Clinton’s shenanigans eclipsed his good showing, balancing the federal budget for the first time in decades. Yet Clinton’s luck in the bull market ran out in the 2000 election.
Rove takes all the credit for Bush’s success, sometimes dubbed “Bush’s brain.” But a closer look at events in Bush’s first term made his second term victory in 2004 against Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) all the more fortuitous. When Sept. 11, 2001 struck Bush’s presidency, the war on terror became front-and-center, eclipsing all the other issues. When Bush decided to invade Iraq March 20, 2003 to neutralize Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s alleged arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, it helped his reelection bid because voters don’t like to switch horses in the middle of a war. Bush’s Iraq War turned out a farce when the military couldn’t find any weapons of mass destruction. Rove likes to take all the credit for the events leading up to Bush’s presidency and second term. He actually had little to do with Bush’s 2000 victory and certainly not the 2004 reelection.
Rove contends that independent voters have said that if Trump is convicted of anything, it would affect how they’d vote. “We’re likely to see that lead dissipate because the most recent polls have had Biden ahead,” Rove said on Mediate, much to the delight of liberal TV networks. Liberal news outlets like to quote Republican strategists especially when they have something negative to say about fellow Republicans. Rove quotes only national aggregate polling that has little correlation with the Electoral College victory attributed to a handful of battleground states, all showing Trump, since the May 30 conviction, continuing to lead Biden. Whether or not the upcoming debate has any bearing on aggregate polling, only time will tell. Biden certain takes the debate seriously knowing that any slip-ups in the debate could push fence sitters to the other side in short order.
Biden’s handlers preparing him in mock debates in closed session at Camp David show that they’re worried about Biden’s ability to retain information, cramming him full of facts before the debate. Biden will be programmed to recite standard White House talking points about Trump, regarding his threats to U.S. democracy, talking about his need for revenge if given a second term. Biden has been coached to steer clear of anything controversial like his proxy war in Ukraine, where the U.S. is now a mortal enemy of Russia, no longer a cooperative partner on a host of world events. Certainly Biden wants to avoid talking about the runaway inflation that continues to hamper the U.S. economy, at least creating hardship for U.S. consumers hoping to buy homes and other big ticket items. Biden wants to focus his attacks on Trump’s character and recent convictions.
Rove likes to fashion himself as a political genius, when, in fact, he had little to do with events in the Bush administration, especially the war on terror and the Iraq War. “The movement is among independents,” Rove said, who supposedly helped Bush win his two campaigns in 2000 and 2004. “And they have moved in recent polls, roughly nine points toward Biden,” Rove said. No national polls show Biden with a nine point lead, only leading possibly within the statistical margin of error. Rove contends the 21% of independents said they wouldn’t vote for Trump if convicted, now Trump pays the price. Rove got his wires crossed on his so-called nine point swing, noting that the aggregate polling shows the race as a dead heat. With Trump still leading battleground state polls, certainly the CNN debate looms large for both Trump and Biden to see any change.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
