LOS ANGELES.–Ukraine’s 46-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky could only dream of Israel’s defensive systems that let Iran hit Israel with a barrage of ballistic missiles and drones only to watch them bounce off all targets. Ukraine knows what it’s like to get with Iran’s Shahed 136 long-range drones destroying Ukraine civilian infrastructure, without any real defense. Now that Israel took Iran’s best shot, 74-year-old Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must decide whether or not to get the last word, punishing Iran purely for deterrence, since Iran’s 84-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said he concluded Iran’s retaliatory measures for the April 1 Israeli strike on Iran’s Damascus consulate complex, killing two Al Quds generals and 10 others. One of the generals killed, 63-year-old Mohammed Reza Zahedi planned the Oct. 7, 2023 massacre, killing 1,200 Israelis.
President Joe Biden, 81, gave Israel the help of the U.S. Navy anti-missile and anti-drone operations, intercepting dozens of missiles and drones incoming to Israel, helping Israel fend off the Iranian assault. Pentagon and Israeli Defense Forces [IDF] are busy analyzing Iran’s assault, determining how Israel’s Iron Dome and other aerial defense neutralized the bombardment, leaving Israel unscathed. “We will build a regional coalition and collect the price from Iran, in a way and at the time that suits us,” said Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s War Cabinet. Growing consensus in the War Cabinet has Israel accepting that Iran has ended its retaliatory strike and wants to return to the status quo. But if Israel completes its mission it Gaza, Hamas will no longer present an immediate threat to Israel, taking at least one of the Ayatollah’s proxy groups out of the picture.
Iran can never admit it’s a Paper Tiger, hitting Israel with its best shot, having no real consequence. It is warning shot, saying that if Israel breaks the rules, there are consequences,” said Magnus Ranstorp, adviser to Swedish Defense University. Rnstorp hasn’t yet processed the extent to which Israel neutralized Iran’s ability to strike Israel in any significant way. If anything, Israel reserves the right to hit Iran at a time of its choosing or not at all. Iran’s shown it’s all bluster, despite ongoing threats against Israel, pretending to support the Palestinian cause, when, in fact, the Ayatollah told 62-year-old Hamas leader-in-exile Ismail Haniyeh he would not intervene in Gaza. Hamas’s 68-year-old billionaire diaspora chief Khaled Meshaal, said recently that Hamas “would break the enemy soon,” encouraging Iran to keep up the fight, even after Ayatollah said he concluded his recent operation.
Ayatollah doesn’t want a protracted conflict with Israel because it would drag in the U.S., opening the door to more unrest in Iran. Iran still reels from the two years crackdown after the Basij militia beating death of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini. Iran’s 59-year-old Foreign Minister Hossein Amirbdollahian said on Twitter Iran has “no intention of continuing defensive operations” unless attacked by Israel. Before yesterday’s throwaway missile and drone attack, Iran boasted all its firepower, something Israel doesn’t take too seriously. After most of Iran’s missiles-and-drones bounced off Israel’s air defenses, Israel is in the driver’s seat, reserving any further action for a later time. For all the bluster, Lebanon’s Hezbollah or Yemen’s Houthis provided very little problem for Israel’s air defenses, leaving both armed groups looking ineffectual.
Hezbollah’s Leader Hassan Nasrallah, 63, had been threatening Israel with what he calls the biggest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. Since the Oct. 7 war with Hamas, Hezbollah has been firing missiles at Israeli targets in northern Israel, mainly as a symbolic distraction. Nasrallah knows that the IDF could escalate the conflict at anytime to wipe out his forces in Lebanon or go after Beirut, something unthinkable due to protracted recession and widespread poverty. So, for all of Nasrallah’s bluster, he did very little to defend Hamas, currently on the ropes in Gaza. Meshaal knows that if anyone’s broken in Gaza, it won’t be Israel. Whatever’s left of Hamas leadership and militants, they’re holed up in the southern outpost of Rafah, the next target of Israel’s offensive. Netanyahu knows he must get back to his work in Gaza.
Iran’s offensive operations in Israel look done for now, showing very little success, other than making a stand. Firing rockets and drones at Israel directly showed that Iran wanted to take credit for going after Israel for its brazen April 1 attack on Ian’s Al Quds headquarters in Damascus. U.S. and European media haven’t exposed that fact that the target of Israel’s attack with Brig. Gen. Mohammed Reza Zahedi who planned and orchestrated the Oct. 7, 2023 massacre in Israel. Netanyahu knows he has the U.S. and G7 behind Israel now, with no reason to carry out retaliatory strikes on Iran. With prospects for a wider war greatly diminished, Netahayahu can get back to the last phase of work in Gaza, rooting out Hamas in Rafah and returning to the task to protecting Gaza civilians. Prospects for a wider war look less likely now Iran has backed down.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
